truesee's Blog

Obama could be comeback kid if he mimics Clinton

For one, they start out at almost exactly the same point. Clinton's job approval rating in the Gallup poll was 46 percent in the first week of November 1994. Obama's job approval rating was 45 percent in the first week of November 2010.

Starting from the same place, the lines then follow a comparable course. Clinton had a bumpy ride in the months after defeat, but his rating never fell below 40 percent and never rose above 51 percent. Obama has been doing much the same thing; in the latest Gallup survey, he is at 42 percent.

A turning point for Clinton came in late 1995 and early 1996, when he faced off against then-Speaker Newt Gingrich and congressional Republicans in a budget fight that resulted in two government shutdowns. Clinton's ratings were in the low 40s when the fight began. When he emerged victorious -- at least in the press and in some public opinion -- his numbers began a slow climb. In March 1996, Clinton was at 52 percent approval. In June '96 he was at 58 percent. In August he hit 60 percent. And in November he was re-elected.

Of course, Gingrich and the Republicans were re-elected, too; pundits who describe the '95-'96 shutdowns as a disaster for the GOP often neglect to mention that. So in a narrowly political sense, both Clinton and the GOP won the shutdown. The question now is whether Obama and his Republican adversaries might do the same after their current fight over the debt ceiling.

In his drive for re-election, Clinton needed Republican help, not just as a foil but as a source of policy initiatives. For a man who announced "the era of big government is over," Clinton had to be dragged kicking and screaming toward both balanced budget legislation and welfare reform -- now seen as key accomplishments of his presidency. Republicans did the dragging, and when Clinton moved the GOP's way, his prospects improved.

The public also found that it liked divided government. Republicans were elected in 1994 because voters wanted to place a check on Clinton. Republicans were elected in 2010 because voters wanted to place a check on Obama. With that check in place, Obama might find that if he, like Clinton, were to move the GOP's way, his prospects might improve.

Of course, there are plenty of reasons why it might not work. In November 1996, unemployment was 5.4 percent. It's 9.2 percent now and is predicted to be at 8 percent or above in November '12. "The economic situation is so dramatically different," says a Republican strategist who is skeptical of the Obama-GOP win-win scenario. "You have anemic economic growth, you have unemployment that has been above 8 percent for more than 20 months, and you have a deficit that is more than a trillion dollars. Clinton had an economic strength that Obama doesn't have."

In the end, Obama might be doomed whatever he does. But as his campaign aides have pointed out, he's betting that voters will judge him on whether they feel he's taking the economy in the right direction, not whether he has reached any particular point. It's a pretty thin hope, but it might be a little more realistic if voters perceive him working with Republicans to go in that right direction.

To many Republicans these days, Obama resembles Jimmy Carter more than Bill Clinton. Certainly Obama's dour, eat-your-peas lecturing evokes the worst of Carter's sanctimoniousness. But Obama's popularity is nowhere near as low as Carter's was at the same point in their presidencies.

According to newly compiled figures from the Gallup organization, Obama's average job approval in the most recent quarter -- his 10th quarter in office -- was 46.8 percent. Carter's was an astonishing 31 percent. Obama is more in the range of Ronald Reagan (44.4 percent) and Clinton (49.3) at that point in their presidencies.

Both won re-election. As they seek to win the White House themselves, Republicans can only hope that Obama is not as savvy -- or as flexible -- as his predecessors.

Juliette Dunn arrested for giving 4-year-old and 10-month-old beer and cocaine

Nina Mandell
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER

Friday, July 22nd 2011, 12:52 PM

Cops: Mom gave her children beer and cocaine

Daniel Tepfer, Staff Writer

07:46 a.m., Friday, July 22, 2011

BRIDGEPORT -- A city woman was in custody after police said she forced her 4-year-old son to chug a bottle of beer and then gave her 10-month-old daughter beer and cocaine.

Juliette Dunn, 29, of Success Village, was charged with two counts of risk of injury to a child and two counts of second-degree assault and was being held in lieu of $100,000 bond. A female companion, 33-year-old Lisa Jefferson, was arrested on the same charges and also had a $100,000 bond.

According to police, officers were patrolling Success Village June 28 when they were waved down by a neighbor who complained that a mother was feeding her children beer on the playground.

Police said they spotted Dunn and Jefferson sitting at the playground, the young children on the ground next to them. As officers approached them, police said they spotted an empty 40-ounce bottle of Steel Reserve beer on the ground beside the boy. They said a baby bottle next to the baby contained a dark liquid that smelled strongly of an alcohol beverage. Dunn was identified as the children's mother.

Police said witnesses told them that Jefferson had handed the bottle of beer to the boy and ordered him to chug it. When he had finished it police said Jefferson called the boy an alcoholic.

Both children were taken to Bridgeport Hospital where police said both the boy and girl tested positive for alcohol and the 10-month-old also had cocaine in her system. While being examined, police said the 4-year-old told a social worker he likes, "Natural Ice beer, Budweiser beer, but didn't like the taste of Dog-Bite beer."

Police said Dunn told them Jefferson gives her son a bottle of beer everyday but she didn't know how her 10-month-old daughter tested positive for cocaine since she doesn't breast feed her.

According to the warrant, Jennifer Schwenker entered the Marietta McDonald’s on Bells Ferry Road with her children and service dog on July 12. Allen was off duty at the time and had her own child in the restaurant when she  confronted Schwenker about the dog being in the restaurant.

Schwenker explained to Allen that the dog was a service dog and by federal law has the right to be in any public place including the McDonald’s. Allen continued to berate Schwenker, following her around the restaurant and even into a bathroom.  During the incident, one of Schwenker’s twins disappeared. When the mother threw her cup to the ground and ran outside to look for her child, part of the drink soaked Allen’s pants.

Video of the incident shows Allen handing her child to someone else, several McDonald’s employees holding Allen back and then Allen following Schwenker into the parking lot, where she is accused of hitting Schwenker in the face.

Schwenker has reportedly hired an attorney to represent her in the case.  Allen is now looking for another job.