Hmmm, law of averages perhaps ?

Reply #11

JAG331 — Thu, 02 Dec 2004 17:13:23 GMT

Johnph77,It may be a matter of preference....but I think you can do some solid mathematical calculations to lean toward sticking with the trend, or returning to the average.

Reply #10

TycMozo — Thu, 02 Dec 2004 16:52:06 GMT

Well the way i've approached it so far is to use what i know. Here's a hypothetical example:Let's say the number 24 is showing regularly. Even the lottery organisers (more correctly the presenters of the program in which the draws are performed) point this out saying you'd do well to bet on number 24 because it's our most popular ball etc etc... Well, erm yes it has shown to be more popular because of it's history however i'd prefer to say let's NOT bet on it because every time it shows the ch... [ More ]

Reply #9

johnph77 — Tue, 30 Nov 2004 18:49:41 GMT

JAG -Quick answer, perhaps? Personal preference. That's a part of the result of any analysis using historical data. The numbers are there, how do you prefer or want to make use of the information?gljohn

Reply #8

JAG331 — Tue, 30 Nov 2004 15:05:01 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by TycMozo on November 29, 2004Given that the organisers are obviously doing their level best to counter any trends that might begin to appear, if i have identified that the average gap between occurances of number 'x' is larger than 49, is it right to assume that in future draws the gap will be less than average simply in order to return the 'x' gap average back to 49 ? Or should i highlight this as a trend and calculate based on what i know ?Another way of looking at i... [ More ]

Reply #7

TycMozo — Tue, 30 Nov 2004 13:40:21 GMT

Nice info, thanks.TycMozo

Reply #6

johnph77 — Mon, 29 Nov 2004 17:19:16 GMT

Following chart shows all the possible outcomes and odds of every possibile draws in the 6/49 + Bonus game.Draw 6 + BonusHitPossibilitiesOdds - 1:: 6113983816.005 + Bonus62330636.00525255491.334 + Bonus63022196.534129151082.763 + Bonus17220812.07322960060.912 + Bonus17220081.21216789508.331 + Bonus67158020.82151040082.740 + Bonus85066816.44052457862.67139838161.00Note that if you're trying to select 7 numbers from 49, your percentage of correct selections should be around 14.2857%, or exactly 1... [ More ]

Reply #5

RJOh — Mon, 29 Nov 2004 16:58:56 GMT

If you're only pick one line of six numbers for each drawing then you're picking 6of49 or 12.3% of the numbers all the time. Your odds of matching 3of6 are 1: 61 or 1.6% of the times you play a line, so if you're matching 3 or better more than one time per 61 plays then you are beating the odds.RJOh

Reply #4

TycMozo — Mon, 29 Nov 2004 16:30:49 GMT

yep thanks RJOh, i realised after i posted that i gave the wrong impression hence the edit.In my program, i predict what i think will be six winning numbers then check the draw results to see how many numbers i got right. Some draws i get none and some i get as many as 5 (so far !). By counting how many i get right then using how many i SHOULD have got right (oh i wish !) i calculate that i am right 12.67% of the time. Actually 12.62% now cos i didn't get any in the last draw !What i'd like to k... [ More ]

Reply #3

RJOh — Mon, 29 Nov 2004 16:10:22 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by TycMozo on November 29, 2004Lastly could somebody calculate for me what the standard percentage chances are for correct results ? ie if i select numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 every draw, statistically speaking what percentage would be right given 7 numbers are drawn twice a week out of 49 possible numbers.TycMozo,If you are talking about a 7/49 game then your odds of picking 6 of the seven numbers are 1:292,179, but if you're talking about a 6/49 with an extra ball drawn for a... [ More ]

Reply #2

TycMozo — Mon, 29 Nov 2004 12:07:44 GMT

Thanks for the reply johnph77Just like to ask your advice on what i term negative logic if i may ?Given that the organisers are obviously doing their level best to counter any trends that might begin to appear, if i have identified that the average gap between occurances of number 'x' is larger than 49, is it right to assume that in future draws the gap will be less than average simply in order to return the 'x' gap average back to 49 ? Or should i highlight this as a trend and calculate based o... [ More ]

Reply #1

johnph77 — Mon, 29 Nov 2004 08:05:13 GMT

The orders of probability dictate that the more samples are utilized in these calculations, the closer to 49 the result should be. If it were anything else you would have an edge in playing that game that might yield you a better chance of winning. But, more to the point, it illustrates that your lottery commission is doing its best to make the drawings as random and as fair to all players as it possibly can.

Hmmm, law of averages perhaps ?

TycMozo — Sun, 28 Nov 2004 16:22:17 GMT

Hello all, i stumbled onto this site and got sucked in ! So this is my first post, please be gentle :)I have been working on various programs for four years on off and refuse (stubbonly) to believe that it's impossible to predict the lottery (yea i know call me stupid).Mathematically (i'm no mathematician) each lotto draw is an independent dvent which takes no notice of any previous draws or results. Physically the balls cannot have a memory or a program, i understand all this however, it seem... [ More ]