Help on expected hit rate averages

Reply #6

Thoth — Fri, 01 Dec 2006 00:52:33 GMT

Whats most fascinating to me is how every single Pick 3 game that I've ever tested performs very, very similarly from a probability point of view. Take any amount of consecutive games from any pick 3 game in the country and you will see very similar results when it comes to how many different combos were drawn and/or how many remain to be drawn.

The 93.82% can be derived from the following formula. It will give you the probability based on n, which is the number of consecutive games played... [ More ]

Reply #5

WIN D — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 22:29:45 GMT

Nice ...clear ...crisp.... Thank you Thoth.

So... 61.8 combos and almost right on the money. That's the fascinating sort of thing that keeps me glued to this game. It is pretty isn't it? Expected 6.18%... result.. 5.5% after 2783 draws haver come and gone is remarkable to me.

Thoth....please go into the expected ...93.82% within the 2783 draw time frame a little if you would.

Yes.... I agree with you that each straight... regardless of title or group is equal in the eyes of... [ More ]

Reply #4

Thoth — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 22:26:23 GMT

And yet another way of looking at it:

In 1,000 consecutive games, each stright has about a 63.23% chance of being drawn. The same rule applies so there should be close to 632 different straight drawn within the 1,000 games. Since 632 different numbers were drawn, then 368 numbers should not be drawn. Of those 368 non-hitters, 63.23% of them should hit within the next series of 1,000 consecutive games.

368 .6323 = 232.68 or 232 even when rounded. Now, take the 368 straights that didn

Reply #3

cps10 — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 22:06:39 GMT

Interesting post, WIN D. I would be inclined to play all 55 straight until one hits. And add a progression to it.

Reply #2

Thoth — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 21:47:52 GMT

Heres one interesting way of looking at it Win D.

It doesn't really matter what kind of combination it is...a no-match, a double-digit or even a triple digit combination... the probability for the combo to hit straight is 1 in 1,000 or .001. With that in mind, each of the 1,000 combo's by itself can be given a probability or chance to be drawn within X amount of games.

Suppose that X represents your 2,783 consecutive midday drawings in GA. Every single Pick 3 combo has about a 93.82% ch... [ More ]

Reply #1

WIN D — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 16:54:00 GMT

Wanted to add some results on other groups ......and their expected math average hit rates ....and the actual results during the 2,783 draw history.

2,783 draws ..... expected Single number hit rate..

should be around 2,003 ... Actual result was 2,034 (I love it when it does that!)

Doubles expected hit rate 751.41......Actual result .. 710.

Trips expected hit rate ..27.82......... Actual result .. 40

Well.... guess we can't say Trips are over due c... [ More ]

Help on expected hit rate averages

WIN D — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 16:06:30 GMT

Here is something for us to ponder .

Ga. Midday has had 2,783 draws so far......

Wonder if I said there were 55 TRIPLES instead of 10 ...straights or 5.5 % instead 1% of the chart that had never ever hit ....and it were true. (Just to put it in perspective a little)

There are currently 55 straights in the Ga. Midday that have never hit in those 2,783 draws.

Well...... I guess until we find a different status ...or classification for numbers like this we have to handle them the