The Pick 3 Benford Matrix

Reply #22

WSN1 — Sat, 10 Feb 2007 23:20:32 GMT

I also noticed that 25% of the game is ALL HIGH LOW and of that about 60% of the next draw comes back as a non ALL and 40% comes back as ALL in either direction. Also, about 92% of these ALL HIGH LOWS will produce non all within 2 draws. That is 750 st. combinations, now if apply BL in of one of two ways we get the following options:

Play the BL#s which are a mix after ALL high/low from the 1000 poll

or

Wait til a BL ALL high or low combo hit, then play the BL# mix group to hit

Reply #21

WSN1 — Sat, 10 Feb 2007 19:18:31 GMT

Wow, you are correct. I did a quick test to validate. I would be interested to find out what additional information you come up with after additional testing. Based upon the information given to this point, Im thinking a clever way execute the BL#s, after a hit, with about 2-4 Rootsums that fall within the BL skip parameter, this will give you about 75 - 150 #s to play for a straight hit. Im not sure what the reduced odds factor is to hit within 1-2 draws, but I think it pretty significant. Beca... [ More ]

Reply #20

Thoth — Sat, 10 Feb 2007 16:10:59 GMT

It's interesting to see someone applying it as a filter to the digits. I havent really had time to do much testing lately, I'll try to post some more info this coming week.

Normally, thier should be three or four digits in each position that meet the criteria. This would gove you anywhere from 27 to 48 straights to play most the time. The odds of a BL digit hitting in all three positions at the same time to produce a win is going to be somewhere between 27/1000 (1 in 37 reduced odds) t... [ More ]

Reply #19

WSN1 — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 08:08:31 GMT

I just completed a brief but interesting test I went back to TN eve draw 9/20/06 = 480,

and located the digits by each position that matched the Benford Skip Model created by Thoth,

the following explains my breakthrough:

Positional Benford Digits to wheel:

POS1= 0,4,5,9 POS2= 7,8,9 POS3= 0,2,5,9 {4x3x4}= 48 st. combos

If Benford LDR filter is applied:

Wheel LDR: 2,5,9 final st. combos = 13#s to play.

9/21/06 draw results=966, we got the POS1 digit correct, however we missed pos2... [ More ]

Reply #18

WSN1 — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 06:34:26 GMT

Thoth, how about we up-the-anty for straight hits with fewer combos by using the Benford skips for each 0-9 digits by position, to get a smaller core groups of most likely digits by position, and use the benford skips with root sums 0-9. You would have only a few numbers to play, with greater success rate

Reply #17

WSN1 — Thu, 08 Feb 2007 03:44:36 GMT

Thoth, very interesting observation. I agree that the sums would be a lil more difficult to track using the current model, due to the variances within the individual sums. Let's took at testing your theory on the root sums, i think it has significance

Reply #16

Thoth — Thu, 08 Feb 2007 03:07:53 GMT

I thought about tracking the performance of the skips of combos according to root sums and seeing how they hold up to Benfords Law (as I'm sure they will). This skips for straight numbers that outline Benfords Law can be broken down into 9 groups of 1,111 possibilities each (at least 99.9999% of the time or more anyways).

When you break down the Pick 3 combos into root sums you will have 10 groups: 9 of them (sums 1 through 9) will consist of 111 combos each and the 10th (sum 0) will only h... [ More ]

Reply #15

WSN1 — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 05:46:15 GMT

Yeah, very good stuff Blackapple...I came to a very similar conclusion, which is why I started a new thread to explore this idea in more detail with a separate thread and keep this topic geared more towards the skip research, Maybe you can add some more insight to the following thread:

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/150343.htm?q=WSN1 tab=us rp=search get=766102, thanks for your input.....

I would like to look at applying the sum group with overdue max skip and benford application and s... [ More ]

Reply #14

Blackapple — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 05:06:58 GMT

Over the same period sums 11-15 hit 354x and sums 16-19 hit 241x

Jennilynn418.

Using sums is a very effective way to win in the pick3. The most common group of sums are the 12-15 group. To arrive at a sum just add all three digits together. If you take away doubles you have only 10 numbers to work in each of these 4 groups. In the month of Jan. for NY there were 16 hits from the 12-15 group. Not bad considering there only 40 possible non-match numbers from these sums. Go back the past cou... [ More ]

Reply #13

Thoth — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 02:34:49 GMT

I like waiting for one of the Benford numbers to hit...then gamble on the 55% chance that another one will hit within the next two games. Of course other factors have to be included to narrow the picks in that group down

Reply #12

JAG331 — Mon, 05 Feb 2007 14:53:12 GMT

You could also apply the 'probability of probability' to guessing when to play the Benford 1's, the 2's, the 3's etc., adding another layer.

I think that lottery analysis is like slicing a grapefruit. For Pick 3, imagine dividing the grapefruit into one thousand equal pieces. Think of cutting it down the middle, you will have two equal parts, and you can place a bet on which one is more likely to occur. Then slice horizontally, so you have quadrants. Each filter that you apply provides a... [ More ]

Reply #11

WSN1 — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 03:59:16 GMT

Can we make this assumption that 40% of draws will come from the following 6 out of the 27 sums > 10-15

Reply #10

WSN1 — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 03:41:45 GMT

Well, I dont want to take this study too far ofcourse, however, I think there is a relationship. One reason why there was 66.6% hit rate with sums 10-19, is that there are more combos in this range than 0-9 and 20-27 range. Although, I have no mathematical factual basics, I believe that the end digits 0-5 are most likely. Therefore, Im thinking skips 11-15 are more likely than skips 16-19. Well probably because of something you said before. If something has been out 2-9 draws, then the further o... [ More ]

Reply #9

WSN1 — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 00:43:28 GMT

Thoth,

Tell me what do you think the significance may be from this test. I just recorded a group of 1,000 recent draws in TX with how many had a sum of 10-19, using the benford group first digit #1, the result was the infamous 666 times. Hmmmm!

Also, I understand I am applying a slightly different perspective for review. However, if I am understanding correctly with your application, you are changing the combos every draw accordingly to various #1 digit skip groups?

Also, more food fo... [ More ]

Reply #8

Thoth — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 17:03:10 GMT

CPS10,

Sorry for the delayed response...

The max skip in Ohio for the Benford group is 20 draws. Here is the top 30 largest skips of the group:

Top 30Skips

120

220

319

418

517

617

717

816

916

1016

1115

1215

1315

1414

1514

1614

1714

1814

1914

2013

2113

2213

2313

2413

2512

2612

2712

2812

2912

3012

This table represents the largest skips of the benford group when examining the draw histor... [ More ]

Reply #7

WIN D — Wed, 17 Jan 2007 01:17:00 GMT

Mother Nature ... She's a real character sometimes. LOL Just a little too cute for me...

Tue, Jan 16, 20076-7-52-3-23-7-1-57-1-0-2

Reply #6

CARBOB — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 23:44:12 GMT

Thoth,

1/15/07 Mid 614

1/16/07 Mid 675

This is very interesting, Thoth like always.

Thanks

Reply #5

cps10 — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 20:27:30 GMT

I would be inclined to wait for a skip of 2 to 3 of a Benford number and then move in for the winner. Progressively, this could be done easily.

Thoth - do you have Ohio's max skip of a Benford number? How easy is this to apply to other states/draws

Reply #4

cps10 — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 20:25:58 GMT

Straights seem to be the way to go. I love this post...

Reply #3

CCHS13 — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 20:23:56 GMT

Toth this is some deep stuff, what interests me the most

is the fact that you are targeting str8's

Keep up the good work

Reply #2

Kola — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 20:02:37 GMT

Always enjoy your posts Thoth, and the work that goes into them. This one is no exception - very instructive and confirms much.... Thank you.

Reply #1

Thoth — Sun, 14 Jan 2007 20:10:53 GMT

Using the Benford Matrix

As I stated above, there are usually about 333 straight numbers in the Benford Matrix at any given time. These numbers are the ones that are actually capable of hitting (ending their skips) at value that starts with the digit one. At this moment, there are 341 straights in this matrix for Ohio.

Here is Ohio's current matrix. The combos are listed in ascending order...the number to the right of each is how many consecutive games ago it was last drawn:

003 18... [ More ]

The Pick 3 Benford Matrix

Thoth — Sun, 07 Jan 2007 03:03:41 GMT

In my recent post https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/148025.htm , I illustrated how Benford's Law can be shown to apply to the skips found within any Pick 3 game. The graphs shown within that post reference each of the listed states game from a historical perspective...meaning that the entire draw history of each state was used to gather the skip data.

However, the entire draw history does not necessarily have to be used in order to observe the Law. You can take any states game, that has... [ More ]