Why Quick Picks win...Hint: It's NOT what you think, folks!

Reply #38

MegaWinner — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 03:14:49 GMT

I don't think there is a predetermined number of combo's to be sold through all terminals. I think each machine generates its own numbers and reports them back to a central computer along with the serial number and time stamp of each individual ticket. Do I know this for sure? Nope. But for some logical reason, that is probably how it is done.

I played 5 of my own numbers and then played 5 QP's following that and the numbers in the QP's were loaded with the numbers I picked on my own.... [ More ]

Reply #37

Greg — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 02:05:26 GMT

Did journalist Dorothy Kilgallen know for certain that Oswald did not act alone (if he acted at all) to kill JFK? (before she died)

Did those who disputed the Warren Commission know for certain when witnesses gave accounts that conflicted with the Commission's central conclusion(s)?

I respect very much your question, CA Lottery Guy. However, I am attempting to get LP readers to think and question what is, based on (incomplete) information we now have (ala Atwood's book, etc.)

Gali... [ More ]

Reply #36

LckyLary — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 00:53:49 GMT

I don't get why the Lottery would try to limit the # of combinations, and I would love to see evidence of this other than Atwood's book . Being I rarely play QP it would not matter anyway to me. Won 2 more today in 2 different States (no not played online) using my prg. Again I say that a good enough algorithm or program on certain games can beat QP but could it override the ratio enough to make profit. (Hello Backtesting!!!) If you rely on pure luck you will most likely only win 1/2 what you p... [ More ]

Reply #35

Greg — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 00:12:48 GMT

Of course you can buy a ticket in one state and one in another and have the same combination, that's why there's more than one winner sometimes.

You probably mean more than one winner who has everything BUT the mega ball .

The number of combinations to be sold is not predetermined.

Actually, if you read Atwood's book, you'll see that it is. In addition, isn't it interesting no official from the MegaMillions board has said otherwise-- here or elsewhere?

The numbers of combina... [ More ]

Reply #34

CA LotteryGuy — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 00:09:42 GMT

Greg...your answers are Possibly , could and Probably . Do you know for certain about the claims you made or are you just making stuff up

Reply #33

Greg — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 00:06:35 GMT

How did YOU know I fly those helicoptors!!

:-)

You can't HANDLE the TRUTH

Reply #32

Greg — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 00:04:42 GMT

You state the number of combinations to be sold is controlled . This implies a pool of numbers is offered for sale, while another pool of numbers is held back. Does this mean that all of the lottery machines in the Mega Millions states are linked to a central computer and obtain a supply of numbers for each drawing?

Possibly a central computer could be linked OR each state's computer was programmed from a master computer to issue only a certain percentage of all possible combinations.... [ More ]

Reply #31

Guru101 — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 21:22:59 GMT

First off, I didn't say anything about tickets, I said combinations. I don't care if it's in someone's book either. Of course you can buy a ticket in one state and one in another and have the same combination, that's why there's more than one winner sometimes. The number of combinations to be sold is not predetermined. The numbers of combinations sold is the number of combinations sold.

Reply #30

KY Floyd — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 18:23:04 GMT

So? Regardless of how many numbers you use to make your combinations, if you only play 10 combinations you're limiting yourself to only 10 of the millions of possible combinations. There's only one winning combination, and it will never require more than 6 numbers no matter how many numbers are in the matrix.

Reply #29

KY Floyd — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 18:17:16 GMT

The combinations that will be allowed are distributed by a small central computer. To keep that computer safe, and away from prying eyes, it is constanly being moved around on a special fleet of black helicopters. Greg only knows about it because the flights aren't random enough, and the helicopters have spent far too much time flying around his house.

Reply #28

justxploring — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 16:56:09 GMT

I agree with you, Guesser. That was a problem with one of my combinations, but I kept it and began playing an additional set years ago. Of course any combination can win, but when the matrix changed and more numbers were added, I chose one higher number to sort of balance the card, if that makes any sense. I decided to use my age at the time. (Now I'm too old! Thank goodness the numbers don't go up that high! LOL) However, you can use birthdays (with years) and cover a lot, i.e., if som... [ More ]

Reply #27

CA LotteryGuy — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 16:00:02 GMT

Greg...as I make these comments please note I have not read The Lottery Solution, so any insight you can offer would be appreciated. As you mention a ticket in NY and CA are purchased, this specfic reply will be based upon the Mega Millions game.

You state the number of combinations to be sold is controlled . This implies a pool of numbers is offered for sale, while another pool of numbers is held back. Does this mean that all of the lottery machines in the Mega Millions states are linke... [ More ]

Reply #26

Coin Toss — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 03:49:19 GMT

Whether it's a quick pick, numbers off of the serial number of a dollar bill noticed while waiting in line, or a set of numbers that someone put six months of tracking and research into, if any of those sets of numbers hit on the night played, it still comes down to nothing other than the luck factor.

Reply #25

LckyLary — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 02:26:27 GMT

I won 3 games today, not big $ but all picked with different algorithms, no QP. Last time I had 3+1 on Powerball or Mega it was manual pick. When I had 5 of 5 it was manual pick. I can't even remember the last time I won anything over 10 dollars on QP. Anyone who thinks QP's are better often has weak algorithms in which case they're equal. If you play daily numbers games then especially avoid QP because the Lottery takes out 50% so there's no way on pure luck the vast majority of players would o... [ More ]

Reply #24

justxploring — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 02:10:36 GMT

Last night in FL one person won $33 million playing Lotto. It was a Quick Pick.

2 - 5 - 12 - 19 - 26 - 43

2 and 19 are numbers I play all the time. Actually, I got 5 numbers, but on 3 different tickets! The other 4 numbers are each 1 or 2 numbers apart from my other 3 numbers. So why would my personal combination have any more or less of a chance than this one?

Let's say my number is 2 - 7 - 12 - 19 - 27 - 44 or 2 - 6 - 12 - 19 - 25 - 41

or many, many other combination... [ More ]

Reply #23

Greg — Fri, 13 Apr 2007 01:21:10 GMT

Actually Guru, you can read documentation on what or most of what I stated in William Atwood's book, The Lottery Solution.

1- Again, not the number of tickets but the number of combinations to be sold is controlled and has nothing to do with how many people are playing (although that most likely influences more combinations being released for a future drawing).

2- You can buy a ticket in NY and I can buy a ticket in CA and we can have the same combination.

3- The number of quickpick... [ More ]

Reply #22

Guru101 — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 03:12:29 GMT

The computer isn't programmed to sell more combinations just because the jackpot is higher. There are more combinations sold because more people are playing because the jackpot is higher.

Reply #21

Greg — Thu, 12 Apr 2007 02:52:30 GMT

The computer that generates quickpicks is not set to sell ALL the POSSIBLE combinations there ARE in a drawing.

Read that sentence again: The computer that generates quickpicks is not set to sell ALL the POSSIBLE combinations there ARE in a drawing.

When the jackpot approaches $200+ million, the computer is programmed to sell MORE if not MOST of ALL the POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS.

That is why there are so many winners who have all five numbers but not the megaball.

That is also why the ja... [ More ]

Reply #20

guesser — Wed, 11 Apr 2007 14:31:24 GMT

If a person just played birthdays, you are limiting yourself to an awful lot of numbers - from 1 to 31, and ignoring 32-55.

Reply #19

OldSchoolPa — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 12:57:19 GMT

Winning a MM, PB, CA SLP, FL L, TL, or any lotto game using your own picks is pure luck...how many thousands of times have you played your own picks only to not win $1? It's luck whenever anybody wins regardless of the method used to pick the numbers...geez louise!

I see these old gents pull up to the convenience store in their Badillacs, hooptie vans, and beaters, take some drags on their cigarettes, get out with their protective plastic lottery playslip holder in hand, trudge to the c... [ More ]

Reply #18

Badger — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 03:48:53 GMT

Exactly. With jp games and odds of more than a million to one, there's nothing the player can do to reduce the odds against him/her significantly. That's why many people like to play the Daily Games (especially Pick 3 with odds of hitting a straight only 1000 to 1 against you) In that game at least, you have a chance of reducing the odds against you.

But the main point of playing/picking your numbers in a jp game isn't that you're reducing the odds against you. It's the experience of pic... [ More ]

Reply #17

Just6ntlc — Tue, 10 Apr 2007 02:17:49 GMT

Winning a MM, PB, or CA SLP jackpot using Quick Pick is pure luck.

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 20:17:19 GMT

Letitride obviously isn't as a good at paying attention to the details as possible, but that has nothing to do with the ideas we're discussing. While 5/1 is more common than 6/0, 3/3 is more common still. The point that some people will think those numbers are a bad combination still stands.

Reply #15

KY Floyd — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 20:15:32 GMT

You're still misisng the boat. Self-picked numbers do win, and they win in just about the same proportion that they're played.

even though DRAWS in a majority of cases might be shown, despite their randomness, to fit in those zones

It doesn't happen despite randomness, it happens because of randomness, and the greater number of combinations that fit the pattern. Pick any pattern at all, and over the long term the percentage of winning combinations that match that pattern will be abou... [ More ]

Reply #14

Amazing Grace — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 04:01:17 GMT

When I buy a quick pic at the store the retailers dread me, and i just started doing it this way so nothing to back up my theory yet.

One at a time not 5 or 10 together, so if i spend 20 dollars and they cost 2 buck each i buy 10 single plays.

I am thniking the more noise the machine makes the better!

we will see

Reply #13

time*treat — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 03:32:14 GMT

The winning combo had 5 odd nums / 1 even num, not 6 odd nums.

A 5/1 split is more likely than a 6/0 split.

Reply #12

MegaWinner — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 03:05:20 GMT

Thats why I buy half QP's and half picked! I get the best if both worlds! But if I only had a dollar in hand, i'd get a QP unless I REALLY felt like picking numbers off the top of my head.

Reply #11

Guru101 — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 22:17:24 GMT

Huh

Reply #10

time*treat — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 20:01:07 GMT

30 is an even number, so it's 5/1 not 6/0.

Reply #9

RJOh — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 16:29:18 GMT

I think the only conclusion one can come to from this thread is a lottery player is lucky to win a big prize regardless of how he picks his numbers. Buying QPs is easier and less time consuming but if a player enjoy picking his own numbers then he's getting an additional thrill similar to that of a gambler trying to beat the house odds.

Reply #8

Coin Toss — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 15:15:28 GMT

From what I've read re: playing birthdays or not, the deal is not to play anything but birthdays, that is not to use birthdays as all your numbers, because so many people do just that. If you were to hit 6 for 6 doing that, the thought is you're going to be sharing the jackpot, possibly many ways.

From tracking winner's list e-mails from a state lottery or two, what I have seen is that when all the numbers are lower the jackpots are indeed much more likely to habe multiple winners.

As fa... [ More ]

Reply #7

letitride$ — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 14:35:55 GMT

Perhaps I should have called the thread WHY SELF PICKS DO NOT WIN instead of a positive based assumption regarding QPs. But in theory, as KY Floyd points out, or seems to, each combo has an equal theoretical chance of winning. Most of gambling geeks who read that a majority of winning combos are 2/3 odd even or vice versa pick from those sets, while QPs will choose at random between ALL possible combo sets, whih in the end, gives them their subtle micro edge in real world terms, capish

Reply #6

justxploring — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 11:14:12 GMT

but betting on that 2/3 chance doesn't get you any closer to predicting the specific combination that wins. With blackjack there are far fewer combinations, and you don't need an exact match to win (or lose).

I think that's what I was saying, but maybe we don't speak the same language. Have a nice Easter.

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 09:10:09 GMT

with odds over 1:20 million, there ARE NO logical number sequences.

I guess it depends on what you mean by sequence. Most combinations won't have a pattern, but whatever combination turn up it's always a logical combination because they're all logical. Being logical doesn't mean they're predictable.

Letitride makes a valid point about what a lot of people expect a winning combination to look like. Those people have a reasonable chance of predicting what the winning combination will... [ More ]

Reply #4

justxploring — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 08:17:54 GMT

Although I play my own numbers every week, I also buy QPs once in a while and agree that many times the numbers don't follow any type of logical sequence. However, I believe when we are dealing with games with odds exceeding 1:140 million or even the state lottery games with odds over 1:20 million, there ARE NO logical number sequences. I mean, if out of over 100 million possible combinations only 6 balls are drawn, the so-called experts are spitting into the wind. If you were playing Blackja... [ More ]

Reply #3

four4me — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 07:11:08 GMT

birthday numbers that have hit a jackpot

Tuesday, November 08, 2005 08 16 21 25 27 + 16 mega ball 3 $225 Million

Reply #2

KY Floyd — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 06:52:02 GMT

You're right that plenty of people avoid birthday numbers, but that doesn't mean they avoid them completely. Two of those winning numbers aren't birthday numbers, and that's enough to significantly reduce the chances of sharing the jackpot.

You're right that a lot of people would look at those numbers and think they're unlikely but those are only people who think they're educated gamblers. Those who are truly educated know that combination had exactly the same chance as any other combinat... [ More ]

Reply #1

RJOh — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 06:27:57 GMT

Now that you've explained your theory on Why QPs win what's your theory on Why QPs lose ?

I pick my own numbers and the other day I matched 4/5 in the MegaMillions game and when I cashed my winning ticket the clerk told me she had worked at that store for 6 months and that was the first winner over $50 that she had ever cashed. A few years ago I had a 5/6 SuperLotto winner at another store and the store owner verified the winning ticket and helped fill out the form for me to go to a ban... [ More ]

Why Quick Picks win...Hint: It's NOT what you think, folks!

letitride$ — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 05:49:47 GMT

Many here have observed the oft repeated assumption that QPs win because the majority of PURCHASES are QPS, and as such most of the eventual winners are QP users. I have a different take. Nobody wants to admit ( I think that drives the prejudice against QPs) that having control over your selection matters in reducing the odds of winning not a whit. Nobody wants to think that a person who follows draw history cannot even come close to the mindless terminal, because of the illusion of controlling

Why Quick Picks win...Hint: It's *NOT* what you think, folks!

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Why Quick Picks win...Hint: It's *NOT* what you think, folks!

Why Quick Picks win...Hint: It's NOT what you think, folks!

Why Quick Picks win...Hint: It's NOT what you think, folks!