Randomness?

Reply #18

KnuckleHead — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 20:32:47 GMT

RJOH,

You are quite right.

Reply #17

RJOh — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 16:31:13 GMT

I'm only now beginning to comprehend how much I wasn't able to learn in school due to teacher's that were only their to collect a pay check.

It's easy to blame teachers for what you didn't learn in school but there are just too many cases of students exposed to the same teachers and graduated from the same high school that can't fill out a job application while some of their classmates go on to college, get a degree and have successful professional lives to blame it all on teachers. Teachers... [ More ]

Reply #16

KnuckleHead — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:30:11 GMT

I appreaicate everyone's patience and examples. I'm only now beginning to comprehend how much I wasn't able to learn in school due to teacher's that were only their to collect a pay check. Without the basics of understanding, it's very diffuclt to attempt to catch up...

But, at least I'm willing to try. I search for sites that exlpain things in plain language, that way I have a better chance of understanding what I'm reading. Unfortunately, one of the problems that I have is that very few of... [ More ]

Reply #15

time*treat — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:52:04 GMT

The chart isn't for one specific game. Each fraction/column can represent a different type of game, and some are just to illustrate the concept. 1/2 = coin tosses and roulette (not counting 0 00 spots). 1/6 represents the toss of one 6-sided die.

1/4 can represent 2 coin tosses or two spins of the roulette wheel.

truncate = to cut off, (also rounding down) 166.88 becomes 166

For # of trials: Let's say I'm flipping a coin (the 1/2 column)

If I flip 1 time, I can expect it to land head... [ More ]

Reply #14

KnuckleHead — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:07:32 GMT

Morning time-treat,

I've read several files that discuss # of trials . I'm looking at your chart. I comprehended # of trials to mean # of draws to check , is this correct or incorrect?, because how do you check 1/2 or 1/4 , etc. of a games data?

I'm missing (not comprehending) somethimg here...

Also, what is truncate at decimal mean?

Thanks to all you for the examples and explanations. I'm trying to get up to speed...

Reply #13

time*treat — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 13:08:56 GMT

'Reproduced part of the chart with some popular fractions

degree of certainty

probability # of trials 1/2 1/4 1/6 1/8 1/10 1/16 1/32

5.0% 0.07 0.18 0.28 0.38 0.49 0.79 1.62

10.0% 0.15 0.37 0.58 0.79 1.00 1.63 3.32

15.0% 0.23 0.56 0.89 1.22 1.54 2.52 5.12

20.0% 0.32 0.78 1.22 1.67 2.12 3.46 7.03

25.0% 0.42 1.00 1.58 2.15 2.73 4.46 9.06

30.0% 0.51 1.24 1.96 2.67 3.39 5.53 11.23

35.0% 0.62 1.50 2.36 3.23 4.09 6... [ More ]

Reply #12

RJOh — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:45:18 GMT

In that case if you stucked with heads, you would be right half the time. With most lotteries you only have to be right once, maybe twice is you're real lucky.

Reply #11

time*treat — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:32:00 GMT

Well, we know heads is supposed to come up half the time, and tails the other half. What we don't know is what will happen on the next flip of the coin.

I didn't want KH to get confused by me giving too exact of an explanation.

Reply #10

RJOh — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:08:17 GMT

the Chi-Square test takes the data you have and compares it to what is supposed to happen . The difference tells you how far from random your real-world data is.

What is supposed to happen must never happens or else one could always play what is suppose to happen and hit a jackpot once in a while.

Reply #9

KnuckleHead — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 21:10:07 GMT

Thank you both, I'm searching...

Reply #8

time*treat — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 18:08:23 GMT

Your orig post asked about degree of randomness; the Chi-Square test takes the data you have and compares it to what is supposed to happen . The difference tells you how far from random your real-world data is.

Here is another formula some people like -- Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) -- https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/78519/160313 -- it let's you develop ideas based on how often something should or should not happen, given X number of trials. Raven62 made a chart, here. -- https... [ More ]

Reply #7

CARBOB — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:37:47 GMT

There is a formula for Degree of Certainty . Do a search for Thoth, he has some charts listed.

Reply #6

GASMETERGUY — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:20:19 GMT

From what I am gathering from my reading about probability, there is little if any attempt on the part of mathematicians to look beyond (how can I put this?) the odds , the possibilities , what might happen . The reason, I feel, is because there is no definite formula, algorithym, or whatever, which will result in a correct answer each time.

We all know 4 + 4 = 8. That is certain. In the area of probability, we can not go beyond the certain with any degree of accuracy. So mathematicians stay

Reply #5

KnuckleHead — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:16:03 GMT

Morning time-treat,

Please don't take this incorrectly...my posted name isn't a joke of any kind. When it comes to math, I am deficient.

I have extreme trouble attempting to understand/comprehend what I'm reading in discovered PDF files that I think may be helpful. (unfortunately, that's why it appears to all that I ask dumb questions in my posts). I'm reading everything that I can discover, but without the understanding or comprehending what is needed for implementing any of them. I appol... [ More ]

Reply #4

time*treat — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 14:32:56 GMT

You may be thinking of the Chi-Square test.

Reply #3

KnuckleHead — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 12:52:04 GMT

Morning RJOH and KY Floyd,

In the Pick3 game that I follow, my very rudamentary formulas are picking 2 of 3 about 30% of the time. About every 13th to 19th draw, my rudamentary formulas actually pick the correct 3 numbers. I keep my winning numbers in a color coded pattern file based on which line the winning number shows up in. It's looking like a checker board of colors and patterns.

I have calculated the number frequencies, skips/gaps, the -+ between the past drawn numbers in a column o... [ More ]

Reply #2

KY Floyd — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 16:56:13 GMT

I don't think there's any way to directly calculate the randomness of a game. What you can do is calculate the difference between the actual results and what you would expect from a perfectly random outcome. That goes beyond what I learned about probability and statistics, nevermind how much I still remember. Here's what I can tell you about it, though. First, probability is all about the relative chances of different outcomes, and can't do anything to predict specific outcomes, and it can't tel... [ More ]

Reply #1

RJOh — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 21:59:40 GMT

There are formulas for figuring the odds of certain events happening like a match 2,3,4,5 and 6. If certain events happen a lot more or a lot less often than the odds would suggest you probably could say the events happening aren't totally random.

Randomness?

KnuckleHead — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 21:46:56 GMT

Afternoon all,

Can anyone tell me if there is a formula to detect the degree of randomness in a specific game?

Also,

Is there a formula to model a mechanical or air blown draw machine?

I ask the 1st question because I'm wondering if the randomness is preset @ .50% or with histories of draws and data to show what each number frequency is along with the number skips, can these figures help to discover to what degree a lotteries randomness is? Could knowing the degree of randomness... [ More ]