Poisson Probability Distribution for Numbers of MM Winners

Reply #4

Prob988 — Sat, 31 Mar 2012 01:13:08 GMT

Well it's not impossible. Not probable, but possible.

Of course, if one weighed the probable over the possible no one would play the lottery at all.

I'm sure the main threads here all announce that everyone who posts is going to win.

It is exciting though, just to imagine it all.

Reply #3

KY Floyd — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 20:34:15 GMT

I'm cautiously optimistic that you'll be posting an update on Sunday for $1.2 billion.

Reply #2

Prob988 — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 19:35:59 GMT

Updated for $640M Jackpot:

0 2.66%

1 9.65%

2 17.50%

3 21.15%

4 19.18%

5 13.91%

6 8.40%

7 4.35%

8 1.97%

9 0.79%

10 0.29%

11 0.09%

12 0.03%

13 0.01

Reply #1

KY Floyd — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 21:30:20 GMT

Being optimistic I'm pretty sure that enough people pick special numbers , mostly based on dates, to give us slightly better than a 10% chance of a rollover. I'm slightly less optimistic that my selection of numbers that most people would probably avoid can escape the duplication from QP's.

Poisson Probability Distribution for Numbers of MM Winners

Prob988 — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 18:37:33 GMT

Based on the $540M jackpot with a 389.4 M cash jackpot - suggesting projected sales of 410,000,000 on this draw, the poisson distribution for likely numbers of winners is as follows:

k, number of winners p(m,k)

0 9.69%

1 22.62%

2 26.40%

3 20.53%

4 11.98%

5 5.59%

6 2.17%

7 0.73%

8 0.21%

9 0.05%

10 0.01%

There is still approximately a 10% chance of a rollover, but for the first time since this began, the most probabl... [ More ]