Does Random Seek?

Reply #8

Edibs3 — Sat, 26 Mar 2016 03:37:25 GMT

Old Mr Harold, my friend use to say that statisticians use randomness as a tool.

He use to say that statisticians didn't think of randomness as something bothersome. It was always a necessary component in creation of real world data.

They didn't think of it as something that goes offf and just tends to be unpredictable or just haphazzard. They depended on randomness to give them an accurate picture of real world data and the way they drew their conclusions. The way they drew those conclusi... [ More ]

Reply #7

KY Floyd — Fri, 25 Mar 2016 22:12:42 GMT

Maybe we humans have a bias towards fairness ?

It's not so much a bias towards fairness, as a lack of understanding about what random is, or what probability is. We all know that if you flip a coin 100 times you'll end up with about 50 heads and about 50 tails. Most people have no grasp of how often you should get 5 heads or 5 tails in a row, and a fair number don't even know how to figure it out.

Reply #6

Tialuvslotto — Fri, 25 Mar 2016 11:55:27 GMT

Interesting thread!

I recently read about a study (maybe on the Math forum?) where the researchers asked subjects to generate a random series of heads and tails. In general the human-generated series was much more regular and patterned than a true random series, and had shorter runs and more transitions. Maybe we humans have a bias towards fairness ?

This is part of what makes lottery prediction so challenging -- random does not behave as we feel it should and we are always getting surpris... [ More ]

Reply #5

AllenB — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 21:43:47 GMT

Even if something did drive things towards balance how long do you suppose it might take? How long for a particular pick 3 game to have all possible numbers represent exactly 0.1% of trials? Even if you believe that something drives results towards a balance it would take a completely separate delusion to think it will happen in your lifetime.

I totally agree, that is why a noted the small samples we have to choose from.

If the parade happens on a day that's cloudy seeing clouds is w... [ More ]

Reply #4

KY Floyd — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 19:01:08 GMT

Does Random Seek Balance?

I'm willing to consider that the universe seeks balance. Your state lottery in its infinitesimally small backwater corner of the universe? Not very likely.

does it not have the option of including all things possible including balance

You're asking if random can also be perfectly ordered. It could be, but only as a result of random chance, and the probability of that is extremely low.

Even if something did drive things towards balance how long do you supp... [ More ]

Reply #3

Wisconsin3054 — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 19:01:07 GMT

Like I said, my personal opinion.

The first question is: Is the draw random? If yes, then all of these systems that base the predictions on past draws are meaningless. If you've spent hours and hours researching past numbers and sums and vtracs and all that stuff and its meaningless, then that sucks so people get real defensive about it.

If the draw is not random, then that opens up some possibilities. If the numbers are computer generated, then you have to assume that you have the abilit... [ More ]

Reply #2

AllenB — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 18:21:15 GMT

You know, I am about 99.9% in agreement with you. True Random maybe what you say it is; but does it not have the option of including all things possible including balance? Part of my question is are Lotteries Truly Random . I,am not so sure, I am looking for things to grow the gap between us, maybe go down to 99.5%.

Do You believe that anything can improve your odds? Are you always seeding the clouds on parade day? Seams like it to me.

Reply #1

Wisconsin3054 — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 17:53:20 GMT

Just my opinion here so take it for whatever its worth.

Random will not seek to correct past trends. The even average you are seeking is what you can expect over the future, but random does not care if the past draws didn't come out as expected.

There is a name for the idea that past results which or over or under what the odds would suggest will be corrected by future results. The Gambler's Fallacy. Google it if you want to read about it.

this thinking is behind most of the systems on... [ More ]

Does Random Seek?

AllenB — Thu, 24 Mar 2016 16:58:07 GMT

I was looking back at the data on a Ca, Ontario, and Florida Daily 3 Combined Draws. I used WinSum's P3StateDraws File for the data; so, I'll pause to thank Him for the great tool he has provided. Looking at CA Odd-Even I see that the Odd-Even count favors Even in all 3 positions. I started at the beginning and ran a cumulative count and Ratio of O-E for each position from the beginning. The odds are equal for each side so you have a ratio of 1:1 or 1.00 for O/E. Rounding the Ratio to 2 decimal... [ More ]