A Probable + EV Game? Need Help Confirming.

Reply #7

Damaster87 — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 00:45:46 GMT

Not sure I follow you on the inner look comment...

The advantage of picking numbers above 32 is in prizes that are split... numbers below 32 are chosen by players with much higher frequency than above... I've heard people say that a 123456 jackpot would be split by over 1,000 people... above 32 doesn't increase probability it increases Expected Value.. (Split prize with less people)

in the game I'm talking about though Vegas says the probability is 70% win for a team if it's say the Patr... [ More ]

Reply #6

Greenfox — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 00:41:46 GMT

Vegas hasn't made all the billions they have because they don't know what they are doing. They've put the work into knowing what the best bet is and what they can payout and still come way ahead. They have teams of people they pay a lot of money to to know what to set the odds on. They know some high rollers are going to play the long shots with a large bet because money is meaningless to them and they make a ton just off of those people. A lot of people are going to play long shots in hope of a... [ More ]

Reply #5

Greenfox — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 00:30:46 GMT

I can also tell you that with the lottery games, I've seen that there are things that seem to just line up when a jackpot does come about on an inner look. Seen it many times. Not sure of why, but the numbers themselves do tend to compare favorably when a jackpot does get won. For the most part that is. I do not know if amount of bettors has anything to do with it or not, but can't see how it would other than the chance that most of or all the number combinations had been picked. But as far as m... [ More ]

Reply #4

Damaster87 — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 00:27:56 GMT

I will there's no rush... Vegas lines based on statistics have been extraordinarily accurate over a large sum of games..

if you take 1000 games where Vegas has said the favourite will win 70% of the time... After a 1,000 games it's very close to a 700/300 split.

Now I'd like to use that for a Pools Style lottery game where regardless of the odds you just need to pick the winners on a given day night... and you are up against the other players not the house...

the adva... [ More ]

Reply #3

Greenfox — Mon, 22 Jun 2020 00:21:17 GMT

Hello and welcome!

I'm not sure about Vegas odds and sports odds. I've never delved into any of that. I know there is a way that some do it. Following stats for whatever they are betting on. Billy Beane did similar with building the A's years ago and everyone thought he was nuts. He built a winning team with low pay though.

With sports, I think favor plays a bigger part when it comes to betting. Then there are those that have an idea of what is going on and actually follow the teams that c... [ More ]

Reply #2

Damaster87 — Sun, 21 Jun 2020 23:59:45 GMT

Im guessing no one is interested in this

Reply #1

Todd — Wed, 10 Jun 2020 13:15:36 GMT

A Probable + EV Game? Need Help Confirming.

Damaster87 — Wed, 10 Jun 2020 07:50:13 GMT

Hello Everyone,

I am new here and was impressed at the level of statistical and probability analytics data that has been compiled here along with the programming and excel skills to utilize the data.

So first things first the game I am speaking about is not a lottery... I am in Ontario and I believe that under certain circumstances OLG pools is a +EV game when the amount wagered by the public + the number of events is a certain size.

I am sure many people may be aware of