Odds of Missing digit 8 for 19 draws in P3

Reply #22

Stack47 — Tue, 18 Aug 2020 22:52:05 GMT

This is really basic probability.

Yep, but apparently one or two posters here don't know what P3 means.

Reply #21

Fibonacci — Thu, 13 Aug 2020 21:32:29 GMT

Good analysis. You are definitely right by treating this problem as a binomial (Bernouli). Question: Since each digit is independently selected, you are correct, the p(x)=0.1, and p(x' or not x)=0.9 or 1-p(x); and p(xxx)=0.1^3. But since every daily draw is a brand new event independent of the previous day(s), why does it matter if a digit never showed up the day before, or the day before that...and so on? The probability remains the same.. The law of large numbers doesn't lower the probability... [ More ]

Reply #20

KY Floyd — Mon, 10 Aug 2020 06:01:15 GMT

What are the Odds/Probability of a single digit missing in ALL positions for 19 Days?

This is really basic probability. The probability of any digit being drawn in a single selection is .1 so the probability that a particular digit won't be drawn is .9. Since there are 3 individual selections in P3 the probability of not selecting a particular digit is .9^3 or .729. To find the probability of not having that particular digit selected for any number of drawings just raise it to that power. Th... [ More ]

Reply #19

lakerben — Thu, 06 Aug 2020 21:50:20 GMT

Your text and analysis are exactly like the member WinD. Hmmm.

Reply #18

Greenfox — Sat, 11 Jul 2020 04:14:41 GMT

That's real close on what I'm getting on everything I've tested. It's showing 4, but with the decimal included, it's give or take just a little on each. Once you get down into thousands of draws, those decimal places can either be of great significance or none.

Narrowing down numbers on the 5 draw and 5 draw plus games, those decimal places made a BIG difference. I had no idea that such a minute number could make the difference that it did, but it did. I'm talking .05 could mean the differenc... [ More ]

Reply #17

pick4pro — Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:28:16 GMT

Reply #16

Greenfox — Thu, 09 Jul 2020 16:59:19 GMT

The book for download is here: Pick 3 Skip Stats

Download and save file. File will not be deleted so link will be good as long as the share site is alive.

This will handle 10,000 draws so most states can do a combined if wanted. Some states may have more than 10,000 draws for either or, but one can still get a good grip on what is going on.

I left it unprotected so whomever would like can copy their states results and post them. Preferably here in doodoohead's thread so it can be kept t... [ More ]

Reply #15

Greenfox — Thu, 09 Jul 2020 16:23:38 GMT

It kind of puts it into perspective.

With the spreadsheet uploaded, others can download the results from their states for comparison, but I'm guessing they will all be similar. I ran all the games for here, day and evening combined with very similar results. (Been very busy here with stuff so it's taken longer.) It is done though and ready and I'll post those results before getting back at what I've got to do here.

If someone does not have Excel and doesn't want to or maybe can't afford it... [ More ]

Reply #14

doodoohead — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 18:12:16 GMT

The basic data is so gratifying and confirming. At least for that ONE particular state anyway.

Although, in this beginning, it would be better for all state players to have generic data. They need generic data covering ALL P3 games in general for their own State.

Potentially, just one state could be a data outlier. Only,my guess here is, nearly every State will show that same 4 times average number.

Why?

The generic expectation of an all- position missing digit to start off was... [ More ]

Reply #13

Greenfox — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 06:11:06 GMT

Good memory!

Mid May of 2019 was the 4 for 32 games. 4 also missed 23 games twice in the day draws here in N.C. and went 20 and 27 games once each.

5 went 30 games in the end of October 2015.

9 went 33 draws until it broke out on the 2nd day of March 2015.

Reply #12

Greenfox — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 05:59:24 GMT

This is from the day draw here in NC for the Pick 3. In 4,331 draws 0 had max skip of 22 games that it did not show up. 1 had a max of 21 times. You can see the rest. Each number kept an average of 4 games in a row that it did not show up. I find that a little odd that each one is exactly 4.

0 had 248 times that it showed up every other draw which was 5.73% of the draws. 0 also had 169 times that it skipped 2 games which was 3.90% of the draws.

The far left column is the amount of games th... [ More ]

Reply #11

Greenfox — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 01:24:59 GMT

I'm seeing as to where I'm at with this, the 0 has went 15 games or more a total of 9 times in the past almost 6 years alone.

Still at it amongst many other things, but will post all of it along with the book.

I'll have it show percentages for all most games from 1 time to whatever the most is, and as much data I can figure to throw at it.

Once it's done, anyone can download the book, put their draw history into it and see what their own state is doing.

Reply #10

Raven62 — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 01:14:46 GMT

GA Evening (skipped 20 days before 8 appeared

Reply #9

JordanT1021 — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 21:18:57 GMT

If my memory serves me correct it happened sometime around April. It's been a couple of years though

Reply #8

JordanT1021 — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 21:17:45 GMT

North Carolina has done something similar before. The 4 digit went missing for a month. All positions

Reply #7

Greenfox — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 21:13:13 GMT

You're Welcome!

Will get it on here just as soon as I get it done. It will be from the NC 3 here, but will give a general idea of what to expect.

Have a good day

Reply #6

doodoohead — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 21:10:19 GMT

Thanks Greenfox. I'm sure more than just a few players would like to see something along those lines.

Reply #5

Greenfox — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 21:01:50 GMT

Do you have a spreadsheet program like Excel?

If not I'll just make something with what I have and put up the numbers for whomever wants to see it.

Reply #4

doodoohead — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:50:57 GMT

That is a kind offer. Actually, I was just looking for the specific math of all Pick 3 games in general.

Perhaps an odds chart of some sort. We know for one position it's 1 in every 10 draws on average for a digit to show up. A missing digit for all 3 positions at the same time gets very very rare.

1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10

Reply #3

Greenfox — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:40:25 GMT

LOL. I meant which specific game. The numbers vary between states I've seen. I could whip something up for you.I'll have to find a downloadable file for the draw history.

I prefer fishing. Hunting is too boring setting there.

Reply #2

doodoohead — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 20:30:15 GMT

In the title of the post......

Odds of Missing digit 8 for 19 draws in P3

Guess thats why they put deer stands up high in trees. LOL

Reply #1

Greenfox — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 19:17:35 GMT

What game is this on

Odds of Missing digit 8 for 19 draws in P3

doodoohead — Tue, 07 Jul 2020 16:07:49 GMT

What are the Odds/Probability of a single digit missing in ALL positions for 19 Days?

How often can we expect that to happen in a year?

Several players like to set up camp and wait/track for those types of opportunities.

Example:

Playing just the doubles that include the long missing digit only, and then prepare to wait/trap for 3 days.

Old time players may not know the exact odds, but they know a gift horse when they see one.