Craps Pass Line Simulation

Reply #7

Orange71 — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 17:06:11 GMT

With a raw simulation result, you can do whatever you want to analyze the data using whatever tool you want. With a summary, somebody will always complain I can t figure out x, y, and z from your summary. Granted, they can run the code, but it is informative I think to have a sample output.

Reply #6

Wavepack — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 16:40:46 GMT

Do not post every iteration run of a Monte Carlo simulation.

It's useless compared to a summary. Plus, it looks like spam.

Reply #5

Orange71 — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 16:04:00 GMT

Here's a slightly more complex Python program variation with Pass Line Odds bets possible if a point is hit in the initial roll. A Pass Line Odds bet is a secondary bet that offers a true odds return (i.e. no casino advantage), but it is only possible if a point occurs. This stipulation is a reason the casinos offer it. It is not possible to achieve an overall player advantage due to the initial-roll house edge. However, the greater the odds bet, the smaller the house edge is. I had a separate p... [ More ]

Reply #4

Wavepack — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 09:41:50 GMT

My graduate level course work in EE Signal Processing and Communications involved lots of projects with Monte Carlo simulations. I used Matlab at the time (still do) since Python wasn't as developed back then (late 90s). Python has developed quite nicely since then.

I notice that the secure package documentation link did not provide references to analysis proving their claims of being cryptographically secure. Until I see such an analysis, I remain skeptical to the claims.

Reply #3

Orange71 — Mon, 31 Jul 2023 23:13:06 GMT

Thanks cottoneyedjoe. I may adapt this for a lotto game, like Powerball or Megamillions, just for the fun of it (and to see how much money a player is likely to lose over a lifetime, even with a modest weekly expenditure). If I do, I'll post it here. I'll also check out that crypto PRNG package.

Reply #2

cottoneyedjoe — Mon, 31 Jul 2023 18:54:59 GMT

Very cool program, Orange71. I ran it a few times with different parameters. I might add some features to calculate statistics. (BTW if you are interested in using cryptographically secure PRNGs in Python, there's a module called secrets, LOL. https://docs.python.org/3/library/secrets.html

Reply #1

Orange71 — Sun, 30 Jul 2023 15:43:35 GMT

Init Bankroll Final Bankroll Game Count Summary

3000 1500 3618 Loss Limit hit

3000 3600 1802 Win Goal achieved

3000 3600 804 Win Goal achieved

3000 2880 10000 Target Game Count hit

3000 1500 9354 Loss Limit hit

3000 1500 8016 Loss Limit hit

3000 1500 6650 Loss Limit hit

3000 1500 9764 Loss Limit hit

3000 1500 7710 Loss Limit hit

3000 1500 3560 Loss Limit hit

3000 2620 10000 Target Game Count hit

3000 2560 10000 Target Game Count hit

Craps Pass Line Simulation

Orange71 — Sun, 30 Jul 2023 15:42:13 GMT

I created a random simulation for a Craps Pass Line bet that repeatedly simulates a starting bankroll, bet per play, win goal, loss limit and terminating game count if neither win goal nor loss limit are hit on or before the count. The results are written to a CSV file, which can be opened in a spreadsheet program (like Excel). All of these variables are input by the user. The possible outcomes of a single random simulation are:

(a) Win Goal is hit on or before terminating game count

(b