The ideal number of past draws for systems

Reply #16

SunTribe — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 19:15:48 GMT

You are spot on, the expected range would be the minimum number of drawings for all numbers to show up. In theory of course, they never do. And nothing else does.

When I think about lottery in my country, they have trial drawing(s) before the official one, then every couple of moths as needed so called calibration drawings, every 3-4 years they change the machine, the same machine is used for both 6/45 and 7/35, so at the end of the day I am left analyzing the flawed statistics in any case.

Reply #15

hypersoniq — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:42:34 GMT

I sort of remember this, the expected range was the spread of the pick, such that the high pick - the low pick should be in that range. I also don't remember finding any usefulness in that because the numbers don't hold to it.

Back when I only worked with power ball results in a spreadsheet I would sometimes use the observed range for each column, which was to take a max and a min on each sorted order column and stick to picks within those ranges. That also did not work. Neither did gap anal... [ More ]

Reply #14

dr san — Sat, 19 Oct 2024 09:18:03 GMT

Regarding previous draws, you have to take into account the following: analysis as a whole (all positions together) and by position, bet in ascending order, ok, e.g. number 32 is late, but in what position? We have delays with the position or neighboring number e.g. number (x) is late from the neighboring position, the seed for the next one is in the last draws

Reply #13

SunTribe — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 18:30:43 GMT

I think it's been over 20 years since Nick Koutras provided on another forum a mathematical formula for calculating the expected range of any lotto game. Personally, I did not notice any advantage of this expected range in my 5/50, 6/45 and 7/35 but maybe it can be of interest for some other format.

Range=(V+1)*(1-2/(K+1))

V - total numbers

K - numbers drawn

F.e.

5/50

Range=(50+1)*(1-2/(5+1))= 34.000 (34)

6/45

Range=(45+1)*(1-2/(6+1))=32.857 (33)

7/35

Range=(35... [ More ]

Reply #12

hypersoniq — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 02:13:51 GMT

The column analysis never seemed to be in synchronization, some numbers would come up, but the ones that were off were way off. I figured that looking at combos was going to trade solving the synchronization problem in exchange for lower frequencies... and that looks to be the result so far. The most popular combo in the PA evening pick 3 is 667, which happened 30 times in over 16,000 draws. To see how many times that may have hit adding $80 per 50 cent box brings the totals higher than just loo... [ More ]

Reply #11

dixiejoelotto — Thu, 17 Oct 2024 01:15:29 GMT

Thanks for your explanations, hypersoniq

I agree with you in your considerations. Thank you!

I just did not understand this part:

Moving into combinations, I am moving away from which digit will be next in each spot? to which combination has historically paid out the most?

What is it that helps you consider which combination has historically paid out the most? Its frequency over the analysed period? Say how many times each combination (either straight or combo or

Reply #10

hypersoniq — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 19:01:38 GMT

Would appreciate to exchange some ideas regarding your combo approach. And also regarding frequency analysis.

Yes, we should definitely do this!

For frequency, it is as simple as counting the appearance of each ball in each position, so for example, 0 through 9 in a pick 3.

Since random numbers in that domain tend to exhibit a uniform frequency, we end up with an expectation that the total appearances of each digit would be 10%. In actual draw history analysis, we see that some numb... [ More ]

Reply #9

dixiejoelotto — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 15:36:40 GMT

Very good insights, hypersoniq!

Thanks a lot!

I still need to try and learn Python. Newbie to Python.

I mostly like to use Excel but I am working on a software for Pick3 (Brazilian draws - Rio de Janeiro, mainly) with a lot of filters built-in.

I learned how to program in Delphi for this task. I am not a programmer. But can work out for my study needs.

Would appreciate to exchange some ideas regarding your combo approach. And also regarding frequency analysis.

Reply #8

hypersoniq — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 14:15:49 GMT

Interesting!

I would say that of all the games available here in PA that the pick 3 is my absolute favorite. Mostly because I can paper play and not be bothered if I missed a win.

My approach, mostly spreadsheets (for the last 20 years) and Python scripts (a more recent upskill) has always considered the full draw history because it is not really much more labor intensive to process the whole history than it is to process a few draws. Even when working with short term approaches, having... [ More ]

Reply #7

Kola — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 03:53:24 GMT

Hello hypersoniq,

Pick 3 game player here. I mostly use the last two draws to make my predictions. I lean heavily on the idea that the most recent draws are reflections or current snapshots of a game's recent trends and history as it circles through time, so using just two draws works well. Occasionally, I may use the last three or more, but never beyond the circle of the last 6 draws. If I played the higher matrixed games, I would generally apply the same strategy.

Reply #6

BobP — Fri, 11 Oct 2024 05:32:08 GMT

Use draw history from the last time they threw out the old ballsets and replaced them with new balls and or machines.

Keep in mind they swap out the balls and machines every draw, so you have to be very specific what you're asking should you email the lottery and ask, if they say last draw, it's more likely that's the swap out and they're playing with you.

BobP

Reply #5

Cmoore50 — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 22:10:20 GMT

You need a 1000 draws or more for jackpot games. Track them in some type of group. My patterns are based on 20 draws back. So every draw I use 19 draws of data and try to predict what the 20th draw is going to look like.

Reply #4

Stat$talker — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:55:38 GMT

how many past draws do you work with?

Azzz meny azzz da Math sayzz to..

Don't be like dat cotton -pickin guy in KHaLiPhOrNyA..$pendz a ton of time advising Playaz how to bet, but cain't win a Pick3 game himself...

Reply #3

Pick3geniu$ — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 16:48:21 GMT

I use patterns as a basis for determining what group of numbers to play next, but patterns are short-lived which means that the most recent draws are used right up to the current draw. However, this isn't enough to go on to warrant a play.

Reply #2

tokecap — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 15:57:39 GMT

I think it depends on which lottery you are playing and what strategy you want to apply.

TN

580 058 13 3 4 8 141 10/08/24 Morn

1

5 8 0 ( +1 and mirror)

5

-----------------------

= 551 (10/10/24 Morn)

TX

919 199 19 9 1 8 525 10/09/24 Nite

9 1 9 (mirror 1=6 and 9+1 = 0)

6 0

----------

= 690 (10/10/24 Morn

Reply #1

LottoBux — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 11:31:07 GMT

Guess it depends on what lottery you're playing

Pick 3 /Pick 4 , 14/21/30 draws.

I don't play Jackpot games often enough to track nowadays but it used to be 50 draws minimum

The ideal number of past draws for systems

hypersoniq — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 11:17:46 GMT

Each system is different, but for those following past draws for prediction or forecasting, how many past draws do you work with?

I have usually worked with full histories, but that seems to water down any recent trends.