Predicting 24 of 49 works how often?

Reply #11

BobP — Fri, 09 Jan 2004 04:05:49 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on January 06, 2004 Of course, some call the Mega Ball or PB a bonus ball-but I don't think of a bonus ball as something needed to win the jackpot. Bonus balls help players to win and come from the same hopper as the drawing. ie: AU 6/45 with 2 bonus balls, you play six numbers the lottery draws 8. A mega or power ball comes from an additional hopper and can duplicate a number already drawn raising the odds making the game much harder to win.

Reply #10

CASH Only — Tue, 06 Jan 2004 14:34:12 GMT

Of course, some call the Mega Ball or PB a bonus ball-but I don't think of a bonus ball as something needed to win the jackpot.

Reply #9

CASH Only — Mon, 05 Jan 2004 13:35:02 GMT

Australia also has games with 2 bonus balls. Yet to hear of such a game in the US.

Reply #8

BobP — Fri, 19 Dec 2003 01:56:13 GMT

Irvin: Consider a wheel like this. Start with a 4if6in12 wheel made in blocks of 3 numbers, where if you get any two blocks right you win a jackpot and if not but get 6 among the 12 you win 4#'s anyway, then for insurance build a 3if6in24 wheel to 95% around it, whole thing takes only 15 lines. BobP 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 7 8 9 1 2 3 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 10 11 12 7 8 9 10 11 12 9 13 14 19 20 2213 15 17 21 23 2414 15 16 19 20 23 3 16 17 18 21 22 2 6 10 15 22 24 3 4 8 11... [ More ]

Reply #7

Irvin — Fri, 12 Dec 2003 08:42:47 GMT

Robert,I have never really sat down and figured it out but here is what happens with the NZ lotto.For a start there are only 40 balls from this 6 + 2 bonus balls are drawn. So if I take out the 6 balls from the previous draw I only have to chose from 34.I could also take out the draw before that bringing the total selection of balls to around 30 (This happens 1 in every 6 draws). If I did a full 12 number wheel from the 30 numbers left And the 6 drawn balls just happen to be from those 30 number... [ More ]

Reply #6

johnph77 — Fri, 12 Dec 2003 07:45:01 GMT

Wheel 10 numbers and there are 210 different 6 number combinations. Odds of hittine a 48/6 jackpot with 210 selections are 1::58435.77.Wheel 11 numbers and there are 462 different 6 number combinations. Odds of hitting a 48/6 jackpot with 462 selections are 1::26561.71.Wheel 12 numbers and there are 924 different 6 number combinations. Odds of hitting a 48/6 jackpot with 924 selections are 1::13280.86

Reply #5

BobP — Thu, 11 Dec 2003 16:33:14 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Irvin on December 11, 2003 I would run the risk of excluding the last 6 drawn numbers and pick the 24 from 43....But then I wouldnt pick 24 numbers.Stick to small groups 10 to 12 numbers. Fair enough. So by random chance how often would you expect all the six winning numbers in your game to be among a group of 10 to 12 numbers?How much better has your selection method done vs the above?Just speculation here, which do you feel would do better over time:Shot gunning al... [ More ]

Reply #4

Irvin — Thu, 11 Dec 2003 06:57:36 GMT

I would run the risk of excluding the last 6 drawn numbers and pick the 24 from 43....But then I wouldnt pick 24 numbers.Stick to small groups 10 to 12 numbers.

Reply #3

lottoshlep — Thu, 11 Dec 2003 05:31:19 GMT

I voted 1/104 tries, based on actual back testing of ~10 yrs of data (1032 draws) with BC49 (6/49 lotto).The actual figure obtained was avg 1.1/yr with a best of 4x 6/6 in one year and 0x 6/6 in 4 separate yrs. The overall win rate was ~63% for at least a 3/6 hit in the same time period.Have not found a wheel yet that would come close to break even point with the 24 # picking method I used, let alone give a reasonable chance of capturing the 6/6. I learned, as RJOh's stats confirm, my machinatio... [ More ]

Reply #2

RJOh — Thu, 11 Dec 2003 00:15:56 GMT

Possible combinations of 6 in field of 49 = 13,983,816Possible combinations of 6 in field of 24 = 134,59613,983,816/134,596 = 103.89

Reply #1

MikeK — Wed, 10 Dec 2003 21:16:24 GMT

BobP,I like the poll. Knowing the of course answer (isn't the hypergeometric distribution a fun function) but not giving it away, I am trying to reduce the numbers currently to 18 in the Powerpick 6 Program.The topic shows of course also how unwinable games are such as a 6 out of 69 or just 6/52 and 6/53.Good luck,

Predicting 24 of 49 works how often?

BobP — Wed, 10 Dec 2003 20:35:03 GMT

What do you think your chances are? Say your game is a standard 6/49 game and you like to select 24 numbers to wheel. How often can you expect all SIX of the winning numbers to be among your 24 picks? BobP