How much would you pay?

Reply #28

RJOh — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 21:22:23 GMT

In the PowerBall there are 120,526,770 possible outcomes. Regardless of which one it is, there will be 3,342,045 other associated possible outcomes that will pay $3 or better, so if you buy 3 tickets there is a 2.8% chance you will get your money back.RJOh

Reply #27

hypersoniq — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 21:10:19 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on December 29, 2003 Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on December 29, 2003 2 in 127,000,000 is equivalent to 1 in 63,500,00. This is a mathematical priniciple upon which the science of probaility is based.This is where everybody misses the boat (I used to think the same thing)...The numbers are not just numbers that are free to be manipulated, they represent something...2 = favorable outcomes127,000,000 = possible outcomes (THIS NEVER CHANGES)remember, y... [ More ]

Reply #26

RJOh — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 20:50:17 GMT

I would never join a pool of 100 people. Playing in a pool of 20 people is trouble enough.RJOhP.S. Maybe the question should have been How many people would you be willing to share the jackpot, to increase your chances to win? . When you ask the question How much would you pay? , sounds like you are selling something, not sharing something.

Reply #25

Jake649 — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 20:41:01 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on December 29, 2003 The cost for one chance to win a lottery costs $1, the cost for ten chances is $10 and is worth no more than that. Anyone telling a person he should be willing to pay more probably thinks he talking to a fool. RJOh Look at it this way.The cost for 10 chances is $10.The cost for 1,000 chances is $1,000.But the cost for 1,000 chances can only be $10 if you are willing to share the prize. Are you willing to settle for 1% of the Mega Millions... [ More ]

Reply #24

RJOh — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 20:22:30 GMT

$11 for 400 chances at just the bonus ball with odds of 1:52 should have been more than that not to mention 400 chances at the 5/52 part of the game should have gotten a couple of match 3's at least. Sounds like that local tavern pool needs someone to manage their number picking a little better if they plan to continue putting up $400 per draw. RJOh

Reply #23

four4me — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 18:10:25 GMT

At the local tavern-ackle where I buy my lottery tickets they had such a pool 20 people each put 20 dollars in for last Fridays MM. quick picks were purchased. I was asked to join in on the fun and passed saying I had a better chance with my picks because I back tracked the MM game and selected my numbers based on past draws etc. They won $11.00 in the pool. I won $10.00 on one of my picks and $2.00 on another. I spent 30 dollars they spent $400.00 Now the questions presents itself in another ma... [ More ]

Reply #22

RJOh — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 16:17:51 GMT

In the last PowerBall drawing, there were 1,196,961 tickets that won something. With overall odds of 1:36 of winning something, that means that 43 millions tickets were sold and nobody won the jackpot. If a pool that bought $43M worth of tickets couldn't win, what are the odds that a pool with $500 will do any better? When ever anyone buys a lottery ticket they are in a pool with everybody else that buys a ticket and if they won the jackpot and shared it with the rest of the pool, their ticket... [ More ]

Reply #21

twisted — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 16:06:38 GMT

IF a such a system ever existed, I would pay 1/2 of what I earn using it, to pay for it. I myself believe that such a system would never exist and as Luckycat said it, if it ever did, it would be the end of lottery as we know it. The reason is if everyone can use such a system to win the jackpot or the 2nd prize then whats the point? As we have more jackpot winners, your share of the jackpot decreases. The only viable option would be winning the 2nd prize which is a set amout. But if

Reply #20

Jake649 — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 15:50:58 GMT

hypersoniq,I would never suggest using a lottery pool to play pick 3 or pick 4 games. As mentioned in my previous post, lottery pools work best with large jackpots where a fraction of the jackpot is still LOTS of money. This is why I posted the ACME question in the Jakcpot Games forum, rather than the Pick 3 or 4 forums.In response to your second comment, combos never disappear, magically or otherwise. But it is a mathematical fact that 2 tickets have twice the chances of winning over a single t... [ More ]

Reply #19

hypersoniq — Mon, 29 Dec 2003 15:29:07 GMT

a 10 fold increase in the odds is not exactly a guaranteed hit... I did understand, I still wouldn't pay more than $1 because the ODDS ARE NOT A REDUCEABLE FRACTION... Unless said ACME system/pool covered ALL of the combos... you are still leaving MILLIONS of possibilities uncovered and now you ended up dragging alot more people into it...I STILL stand by my $1, and I wouldn't join a pool eitherbecause the odds are NOT reduceable.If you buy ONE ticket for the 3 digit game (odds 1:1000) you leave... [ More ]

Reply #18

luckycat — Sun, 21 Dec 2003 01:31:12 GMT

I dont believe it would exist: and if it did that would be the end of lottery as we know it.as what would I pay for it: if it was offered: I believe it would be a 1 time stab offer by the maker, and it would be offered free because the maker got his already/ and it would be the last lottery that day.so what would i I pay )0(.. but this is a make believe situation....0

Reply #17

Jake649 — Sun, 21 Dec 2003 01:10:08 GMT

You are missing the original question.IF it did exist, what would you pay for it?Assume, for just a moment, that it does exist. Use your imagination.Try again,Jake

Reply #16

RJOh — Sat, 20 Dec 2003 17:01:49 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on December 19, 2003 A summary of the responses to date follow:RJOh ---- Priceless If such a system worked, it would not be for saleJake CORRECTION:RJOh ---- worthless No such system exists and never will for a total random dvent RJOh

Reply #15

visiondude — Sat, 20 Dec 2003 15:15:15 GMT

it's all in the marketing strategy. use the right words, throw in some unintelligible terminology and the truth is, you can always find gulliable people to buy it. get alot of fish at the cheaper price point, or get a few fish at the expensive price point. it all comes out the same (more or less). it never ceases to amaze me how many people fall for the if it's expensive it must be good hook. i am defintely a prove it kind of guy. i don't let my emotions rule my decision making. unfort... [ More ]

Reply #14

hypersoniq — Sat, 20 Dec 2003 12:52:54 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #13

golotto — Sat, 20 Dec 2003 05:23:29 GMT

Coyote has been using

Reply #12

four4me — Sat, 20 Dec 2003 03:37:57 GMT

Depending on what it could or not do. Would influence my decision to pay anything for it. There are already systems that promise your money back if not complete satisfied and I doubt that. Once you bought it you own it. Others claim you will get your investment back in the first week.My motto is if it's for free it's for me.....

Reply #11

Jake649 — Sat, 20 Dec 2003 01:56:56 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on December 14, 2003 One week after the original post, I will post a summary of responses. After two weeks, I will post the final summary of responses along with my response with an explanation. A summary of the responses to date follow:RJOh ---- Priceless If such a system worked, it would not be for salehypersoniq ---- $1 for a $1 ticketlottoking ---- heheOther responses were along the line that they did not believe such a system... [ More ]

Reply #10

Jake649 — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 20:24:55 GMT

The $100 mentioned in item 7 of the assumptions was only an example to illustrate the point of hedging the cost if there were any doubts. The idea I was trying to get across was to determine the value of such a system if there was no doubt in its ability to deliver the intended results. Again, assume it has been proven to you beyond a shadow of a doubt that the system works.I was not suggesting that a ticket could or would cost $100. Again it is for the readers to decide the value of an Acme tic... [ More ]

Reply #9

lottoking — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 18:29:21 GMT

Dont call me sir,As you see that pic,I am a young man lol

Reply #8

johnph77 — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 18:09:03 GMT

Sir:you make my point. And even if one fool pays for the system it wii be profitable.gl

Reply #7

lottoking — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 16:10:21 GMT

johnph 77,Several questions:1. Who are these experts, a bunch of losers who never won a jackpot themselves?2. Who would be dumb enough to pay $100 for a single ticket and believe it had better odds of winning than 100 $1 tickets?3. Since when has it been illegal to part a fool from his money?I might be wrong, but I don't think there are enough fools around to make this system profitable.RJOh do you ever think you could win with sooooooooo many ASSUMPTIONS?LOTTOKING

Reply #6

lottoking — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 06:44:51 GMT

hehe...

Reply #5

fja — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 02:07:49 GMT

forgive me if I seem unintelligent in my response...but if I read it right the acme system is a parameter filled RNG that will put me in the top 13.5 million combinations of the mega million jackpot. You do not guarantee that my ticket will be the jackpot number.....and you want to know how much I would pay to get that close......being this is a what if type of question.....I guess I would pay 100 what if dollars per ticket.....but i guess i'm probably missing the point....but its a good p... [ More ]

Reply #4

hypersoniq — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 00:06:11 GMT

I didn't miss the point... I did give my price ... $1just because a system worked for others doesn't help me... IF it worked, it still wouldn't make a difference to me.... I don't buy systems, period. (it's more fun to create your own and prove they don't work by back-testing... keeps the math skills sharp)90% is not 100%, and a 100% system would ruin the game for everyone if sold.to ME, the value would be $1 for a try... to others this will surely vary

Reply #3

RJOh — Sun, 14 Dec 2003 00:00:29 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Jake649 on December 13, 2003 The question is, IF the system did work, what is the value? JakeThe answer is 'IF such a system worked, it wouldn't be for sale'.RJOh

Reply #2

Jake649 — Sat, 13 Dec 2003 23:55:02 GMT

So far the responses appear to be missing the point of the exercise. You are not being asked if the system is valid or will it work. You have not been given enough information to make that determination.The question is, IF the system did work, what is the value? We apparantly are all looking for systems. If one existed, what would the value be?By the way, item 7 from the original post should have read:... you do NOT hedge your costs ...Sorry for the typo.Jake

Reply #1

lottoking — Sat, 13 Dec 2003 23:22:29 GMT

not from a system,it depends.I bet 10 drawswould be nice enough for a winner produce.bry

How much would you pay?

hypersoniq — Sat, 13 Dec 2003 23:21:46 GMT

I would never pass assumption#7... I am not absolutely convinced with the results of any system that hasn't put $$$ in my pocket (including my own experiments )Given the fact that the 6/49 odds are so high that a 90% reduction is still outrageous (and the odds as displayed is not a reduceable fraction) I wouldn't pay more than the cost of the ticket I could buy on my own... $1, especially for another black box approach... and that would only be ONE time. Unless of course the system produced a... [ More ]