A Modest Proposal

Reply #43

Colin F — Mon, 24 May 2004 07:34:43 GMT

IntermissionAs I walk along the Bois de BoulogneWith an independent air;You can see the people stare,You can hear them all declare,'Oh he is a millionaire!'You can see them sigh and wink their eye,And then they wink their other eyeAt the Man who broke the bank at Monte Carlo.Name: Charles WellsActual Winnings: $200,000Method: Played the Wheel 11 hours a day for 3 daysEnd IntermissionColin

Reply #42

QWEST46 — Mon, 24 May 2004 01:33:51 GMT

I would like to add my 2 ce

Reply #41

QWEST46 — Mon, 24 May 2004 01:22:17 GMT

Some Ion Saliu influence i see going here Prometheus? I'll admit that he is a clever fellow. Anyways, this subject has already been concluded in the other post mathematics-probabilty formula of likely dvents and i've already stated that there is, and always will be 1 in 2 chance of either heads or tails landing. Everyone here seems to be correct in there own way, just misunderstanding oneanother.here's the link to that post https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/87083

Reply #40

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 18:55:42 GMT

Sorry, Prometheus. It's you who don't understand what you're reading.

Reply #39

Prometheus1 — Sun, 23 May 2004 18:43:30 GMT

Damn, you have very selective eyes radarmand. The point of showing you that site was to politely warn you against taking that bet. Win d was going to take you for every penny you had! It was a sucker's bet. If you continue to ignore these helpful hints and selectively overlook helpful instruction your either a fool or just from a dead planet. Good Luck, it's all you have going for you. Number of TrialsNNecessary For An Event of Probability p to Appear With The Degree of Certainty DCDC p= .90p... [ More ]

Reply #38

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 18:12:32 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Prometheus1 on May 23, 2004 http://www.saliu.com/Saliu2.htm From a mathematicians point of view radarmand. Enjoy. Interesting. It's not a difficult idea.Where a is the likelihood of not winning, b is some sought-after degree of probability of not winning, and x is the number of trials necessary to achieve b:x = (log b)/(log a)EXAMPLE: Your odds of getting the top prize in Pick 3 are 0.001; therefore your odds of not winning the top prize are 0.999. The number of tria... [ More ]

Reply #37

Prometheus1 — Sun, 23 May 2004 16:36:54 GMT

http://www.saliu.com/Saliu2.htm From a mathematicians point of view radarmand. Enjoy.

Reply #36

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 16:05:58 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 23, 2004If it can be that case in the future why is it inapplicable to the past?ColinColin,I've already explained this, in a post you yourself applauded. Take a look at it again; maybe something will click for you that didn't click before: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/87083.htmYou seem to think you've scored some kind of victory because I differentiated between odds when no coin tosses are known, and odds when the previous 5 or 6 tosses are known.... [ More ]

Reply #35

Prometheus1 — Sun, 23 May 2004 15:40:17 GMT

Well done Colin! Simple and easy to understand by all. Jolly good! That pretty well sums it up. He can't have it both ways. Perhaps, it was just a misunderstanding. We can only hope.

Reply #34

Bertil — Sun, 23 May 2004 15:39:47 GMT

To ColinFAnother book you might read is mention by me under Mathematics. It is How to Win More by N,Henze H.Riedwyl.

Reply #33

Bertil — Sun, 23 May 2004 15:36:38 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 22, 2004Quote: Originally posted by rdarmand on May 21, 2004Probability theory absolutely denies that the notions of hot numbers and the law of averages have any relevance to lottery drawings. As far as statistics is concerned, all systems based on these notions are moonshine.That being said rdarmandCould you tell me the names of these Probability Books that make direct reference to Hot numbers and the Law of Averages as applied to Lotto Games.I kn... [ More ]

Reply #32

Colin F — Sun, 23 May 2004 14:40:02 GMT

rdarmandThat's the reaction I was looking for. Where is Mr Cool now? I never raised the idea of having a bet with you. If you look ahead 6 Draws and pick something other than HHHHHH or TTTTTT then your saying that something other than those is more likely to happen. If it can be that case in the future why is it inapplicable to the past?The cause of your sudden frustration and anger which contrasts so strongly with your previous composure is because you now realize you've just been blown out of... [ More ]

Reply #31

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 08:45:07 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 23, 2004Quote: Originally posted by rdarmand on May 22, 2004Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 22, 2004Let's up the ante a bit. Our new variation of coin tossing requres you to bet on the results of the next 6 tosses. So your ticket will be something like HTHTHH. rdArmand are you going to bet HHHHHH, TTTTTT or something elseColinI'm not sure I understand the thrust of your question.rdarmandYou do. Answer the question.Geez, Colin, you don't have... [ More ]

Reply #30

Colin F — Sun, 23 May 2004 04:02:31 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by rdarmand on May 22, 2004Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 22, 2004Let's up the ante a bit. Our new variation of coin tossing requres you to bet on the results of the next 6 tosses. So your ticket will be something like HTHTHH. rdArmand are you going to bet HHHHHH, TTTTTT or something elseColinI'm not sure I understand the thrust of your question.rdarmandYou do. Answer the question.I'm not a Chess Player but that doesn't mean I can't think ahead a few moves. Y... [ More ]

Reply #29

johnph77 — Sun, 23 May 2004 03:19:39 GMT

Quickie addition - the expression of probability is the reciprocal of the expression of odds.gl

Reply #28

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 03:13:25 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #27

WIN D — Sun, 23 May 2004 03:05:18 GMT

Forget it. If you don't want to bet .....you don't want to bet. I understand your reluctance. Just remember this......I was willing to put my money(double odds) where my mouth is and you were not. I also said it could be arranged to go to charity.....and make it legal so that's a cop-out. It's just the little comments you make that piss me off. Such as.... If you want to keep trying to devise a predictive system, that's your business. I don't care if you waste your time. I do care if you was... [ More ]

Reply #26

CalifDude — Sun, 23 May 2004 02:40:29 GMT

Actually with the examples of the roulette, it is not 50/50 because there is also a green!! The 0 or 00. In fact that reminds me of the time I saw a young man that was trying to impress his girlfriend. He guaranteed her he would win the next bet. He placed half his chips on red and the other half on black, figuring that one would pay the other. You guessed it....green!!!! I think he may still be standing there with his mouth wide open just staring at where his money used to be

Reply #25

CalifDude — Sun, 23 May 2004 02:35:31 GMT

I would like to add my 2 cents worth on some of this subject.Having dealt and played blackjack for many many years, I have observed some of what is being discussed here at the blackjack table and elsewhere in the casinos.Some gamblers believe that they can win by watching how many times they lose a hand at blackjack and then start doubling their bets. This doesn't work. Yes, it works sometimes, but it is a good example of no matter how many wins or loses you have in a row doesn't predict what... [ More ]

Reply #24

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 02:18:44 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on May 22, 2004 Don't you understand that odds don't change but probability does? As far as who challenged whom first......read this thread. I believe that was you ....I know it was. As far as a bet (legal) ....we can donate it to charity. Win D,1. I'd be fascinated to hear your distinction between odds and probability. It's inevitable, I suppose, with such religious fervor regarding predictive systems, that sooner or later people will start redefining terms t... [ More ]

Reply #23

WIN D — Sun, 23 May 2004 01:47:49 GMT

radarmand, The reason you don't want to search is that it is a rare occurance and I'm glad you at least admit that much. Ever wonder why? Don't you want to know why it's rare ...or..... how often it does occur? https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/87083 Don't you understand that odds don't change but probability does? As far as who challenged whom first......read this thread. I believe that was you ....I know it was. As far as a bet (legal) ....we can donate it to charity.... [ More ]

Reply #22

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 01:01:31 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on May 22, 2004 Now radarmand......We don't have to play for dirty old money. Just the gratification you will enjoy.... after proving your point should be payment enough. Bringing a little light into the world of the weak minded is a noble thing. Please radarmand.,....help us. LOL Good Luck finding 10 examples of this proposition ....they are extremely rare. I was just hoping the difficult task of searching and finding examples would prove the point to you. I t... [ More ]

Reply #21

rdarmand — Sun, 23 May 2004 00:57:41 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Colin F on May 22, 2004Let's up the ante a bit. Our new variation of coin tossing requres you to bet on the results of the next 6 tosses. So your ticket will be something like HTHTHH. rdArmand are you going to bet HHHHHH, TTTTTT or something elseColinHi, Colin,Win D, if I understood him correctly, was offering me 2-to-1 odds (that's pot odds to you poker players) that the first digit of the 10th Pick-3 draw would not be Odd (Even), where the first digit of the previ... [ More ]

Reply #20

WIN D — Sun, 23 May 2004 00:36:58 GMT

quote radarmand, Win D,You're offering me 2-to-1 odds on a 50/50 bet, right?I would love to take that bet. I'd be a fool not to. Private wagering being illegal, however, I can't possibly agree to do so in writing on-line. Now radarmand......We don't have to play for dirty old money. Just the gratification you will enjoy.... after proving your point should be payment enough. Bringing a little light into the world of the weak minded is a noble thing. Please radarmand.,....help us. LOL Good Luck f... [ More ]

Reply #19

Colin F — Sun, 23 May 2004 00:29:45 GMT

Correction:I have not looked at my little coin tossing program for a while so while the reference to getting the RNG right is correct the phenomenon I referred to may be due to copying the results to a table which then automatically put them in alphabetical order. I remember being puzzled by it for a short while before. It came back to me after the Edit facility had timed out. I suppose I could stop doing these things on the fly but then you lose the conversational flavor.Colin

Reply #18

Colin F — Sat, 22 May 2004 23:50:46 GMT

rdarmandBefore I constructed my complex Computer Model for Lotto Games the thought did occur to me to test out whether in relation to Independent Events such as coin tossing the results from prior tosses can be used to good effect.If the results had not been favorable I would be on your side; the fact that they were favourable from such a 50/50 scenario encouraged me to go on and spend many hundreds of hours developing my own system and Computer Model.I am steeped in the method of testing. Simul... [ More ]

Reply #17

hypersoniq — Sat, 22 May 2004 23:46:44 GMT

it's not the odds you need to be interested in, it's the payout... odds of 1000 to 1 pay 500 to 1 in pa... house advantage...

Reply #16

rdarmand — Sat, 22 May 2004 23:33:43 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on May 22, 2004 Find an example within any States Pick3 game where these 50/50 dvents have formed a consecutive pattern or string. Find one where it has gone on for at least 9 times in a row ......or TAILS (so to speak).[...] find any examples of this in any States game where this pattern has continued for 9 draws in a row. Odd or Even... high/low it does not matter. This is just a heads/tails situation. We will bet on the 10th. outcome. Since the odds are al... [ More ]

Reply #15

WIN D — Sat, 22 May 2004 20:45:46 GMT

radarmand, There are several examples of equally like dvents or 50/50 within the Pick3 game. There are half odd/even numbers 500/500. as well as high/low etc. Find an example within any States Pick3 game where these 50/50 dvents have formed a consecutive pattern or string. Find one where it has gone on for at least 9 times in a row ......or TAILS (so to speak). 1 23 3 22 1 44 3 34 3 42 and so on... for 9 draws. Notice the first digit in this row of numbers. They are all odd. Now, find... [ More ]

Reply #14

MrSteel01 — Sat, 22 May 2004 19:17:36 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by your wrong on May 21, 2004DOes anyone know if the light really turns off in the fridge when you shut the door?go inside and close the door! Your self

Reply #13

rdarmand — Sat, 22 May 2004 18:41:18 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on May 22, 2004 I was just curious as to whether you actually understood what you believe in, and to what extent. So.... Do you decline the offer? I'll understand if you do. They say... Probability is when math meets common sence Win D,As I said before, I don't understand your offer. Please restate it. Thanks.

Reply #12

WIN D — Sat, 22 May 2004 17:41:43 GMT

radarmand, Your quote to Colin:Colin,The belief in hot numbers and the law of averages as applied to independent dvents is a well-known logical fallacy. It has a name: Gambler's Fallacy. You can find many, many references to it on the web, if you want to know more about You also said: As far as statistics is concerned, all systems based on these notions are moonshine. . I was just curious as to whether you actually understood what you believe in, and to what extent. So.... Do you decline... [ More ]

Reply #11

rdarmand — Sat, 22 May 2004 15:39:42 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by CalifDude on May 22, 2004I have found it interesting that concentrating on a particular number (I'm talking Pick 3) seems to have an effect. Three times I have told my coworkers that I thought a particular number was going to be called on the Midday of the following day (I work nights). All three times that number came in. I don't give myself any credit for this, I think it may have had something to do with enough people concentrating on one number.CalifDude,That 9... [ More ]

Reply #10

rdarmand — Sat, 22 May 2004 15:28:35 GMT

Win DI think you wrote that to the wrong person. I don't believe in so-called lottery systems.If I've misunderstood you, please explain your proposition again.

Reply #9

WIN D — Sat, 22 May 2004 14:14:41 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #8

Colin F — Sat, 22 May 2004 10:29:18 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by rdarmand on May 22, 2004Colin,The belief in hot numbers and the law of averages as applied to independent dvents is a well-known logical fallacy. It has a name: Gambler's Fallacy. You can find many, many references to it on the web, if you want to know more about it.rdarmandThis is the same line you were pursuing in the Mathematics Section under Probability Formula Independent Events. There I pointed out to you that Yes the Probability of getting either a Head or a Ta... [ More ]

Reply #7

ayenowitall — Sat, 22 May 2004 09:58:27 GMT

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that the Law of Large Numbers applies also to small numbers.The Law of Large Numbers says that in repeated, independent trials with the same probability p of success in each trial, the percentage of successes is increasingly likely to be close to the chance of success as the number of trials increases. More precisely, the chance that the percentage of successes differs from the probability p by more than a fixed positive amount, E > 0, converges to zero as the... [ More ]

Reply #6

CalifDude — Sat, 22 May 2004 08:34:20 GMT

I have found it interesting that concentrating on a particular number (I'm talking Pick 3) seems to have an effect. Three times I have told my coworkers that I thought a particular number was going to be called on the Midday of the following day (I work nights). All three times that number came in. I don't give myself any credit for this, I think it may have had something to do with enough people concentrating on one number.How else can you explain the New York draw of 911 on the 1 year anniv... [ More ]

Reply #5

rdarmand — Sat, 22 May 2004 05:39:47 GMT

Reply #4

Colin F — Sat, 22 May 2004 05:27:11 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by rdarmand on May 21, 2004Probability theory absolutely denies that the notions of hot numbers and the law of averages have any relevance to lottery drawings. As far as statistics is concerned, all systems based on these notions are moonshine.That being said rdarmandCould you tell me the names of these Probability Books that make direct reference to Hot numbers and the Law of Averages as applied to Lotto Games.I know there are books which I deliberately have not r... [ More ]

Reply #3

your wrong — Sat, 22 May 2004 03:01:20 GMT

DOes anyone know if the light really turns off in the fridge when you shut the door

Reply #2

LANTERN — Sat, 22 May 2004 02:51:33 GMT

Lately we have many people talking metaphysics.Maybe we need to start an occult section on the Lottery Post.I am not serious of course.I would like to see that book, sounds crazy but interesting, I had those thoughts before, mostly because of all the crazy books that I used to read.I think that the mind is the attention and focusing part, but not what makes anything happen, that is not the power itself, the spirit that's where it's at.Maybe I should not read that book after all, I have too many... [ More ]

Reply #1

RJOh — Sat, 22 May 2004 00:24:30 GMT

It really doesn't matter what players do as a group or individuals, someone is going to win the jackpot sooner of later and that is a fact. There may be some that would like to think that they did more than just contributed their dollars to the outcome, but don't try telling that to the winner, because he really won't be interested, he'll be too busy collecting his winnings.RJOh

A Modest Proposal

your wrong — Sat, 22 May 2004 00:21:38 GMT

Well I'm glad you made that decision for us. I was just wondering what to concentrate on for the powerball tomorrow.However, let me say that the physical laws as we know them do more to dismiss the prediction of the lottery. Misinformed people use those laws incorrectly in an attempt to substantiate the argument. Lucky for them our collective unconsciousness has been focused in other areas so most don't know that they are wrong.