Dumb question of the day

Reply #21

Todd — Fri, 13 Aug 2004 12:38:14 GMT

Bertil,Since we are talking about mathematics, I was talking hypothetically. If you were to buy 21 million Quick Picks, I'm sure you could estimate the number of duplicates.

Reply #20

Bertil — Fri, 13 Aug 2004 11:15:17 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on August 12, 2004Bertil,If you buy 21 million tickets, your odds would be 21 million in 42 million, or 1 in 2, or 50%. (As long as you don't duplicate any of your tickets.) Todd, Surely you realize it is impossible to buy 21 million different tickets. Thus you must get duplicates, which was the basis for my prediction. Bertil.

Reply #19

Todd — Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:31:05 GMT

Bertil,If you buy 21 million tickets, your odds would be 21 million in 42 million, or 1 in 2, or 50%. (As long as you don't duplicate any of your tickets.

Reply #18

Bertil — Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:16:37 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Zeno on August 12, 2004Quote: Originally posted by JKING on August 05, 2004I'm told the odds of winning the California lottery is about 1 in 42 million. So, if I buy one ticket my odds are 42 million to one. There are thos who would say that if I bought two tickets, my odds whould be 21 million to 1, or half. Intuitively, how did I eliminate 21 million combinations? If I bout two tickets, wouldn't my odds be 41,999,998 to one, because I've only elimated to possible co... [ More ]

Reply #17

Todd — Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:04:33 GMT

Zeno,You are 100

Reply #16

Zeno — Fri, 13 Aug 2004 00:26:47 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by JKING on August 05, 2004I'm told the odds of winning the California lottery is about 1 in 42 million. So, if I buy one ticket my odds are 42 million to one. There are thos who would say that if I bought two tickets, my odds whould be 21 million to 1, or half. Intuitively, how did I eliminate 21 million combinations? If I bout two tickets, wouldn't my odds be 41,999,998 to one, because I've only elimated to possible combinations.Your odds would be 41,999,998 totwo not... [ More ]

Reply #15

LottoFan — Mon, 09 Aug 2004 23:56:06 GMT

I agree with hypersonic concerning ODDS in relation to combinations. I don't reduce my odds either. For me, 42 million unique combinations = 42 million unique combinations. It is almost a physical thing. Buying 10 tickets (combinations) still leaves 41,999,990 combinations untouched, and you can't argue with that fact. I also believe it is misleading to express such a reduction in odds when dealing with total combinations.

Reply #14

hypersoniq — Sat, 07 Aug 2004 19:13:45 GMT

I got conflicting resu

Reply #13

dragon — Sat, 07 Aug 2004 05:57:35 GMT

I flat out don't understand Hypersoniq's math here. He is talking as if there was something special about the powerball, or if there is something magic about 10:42M or 1:4.2M. It's the same, it's very simple math. What does this whole argument have to do with the number of possible outcomes? Nobody cares about the number of possible outcomes alone.I have to state the obvious again: If I were to buy 42M different tickets, I would be assured of the jackpot. The math for that is: 42M:42M, which red... [ More ]

Reply #12

Todd — Sat, 07 Aug 2004 03:30:29 GMT

hypersoniq,I really don't want to get into another extended mathematic debate about odds with you, but I don't understand why you can't bring yourself to reduce a fraction.You are not properly reducing the odds because you want to issue a warning that people will get false hopes when they see the odds expressed as 1 in 4.2 million rather than 10 in 42 million??Since this is the Mathematics forum, and not the general discussion forum, I feel it is important to set the record straight that the odd... [ More ]

Reply #11

Colin F — Sat, 07 Aug 2004 02:27:18 GMT

Q'elle Horreur(Sorry, I was just having a strange communication with a Frenchman who dropped into the Forum on his way to buy some milk and bread.)So, if you play 21,000,000 cannot mon amie this be expressed as 50/50 or 1:2?Pourquoi?In other words your probability of getting the first prize is .5. This does not mean you would get it every time. If you did it say, 20 times you would find it would be close to 10 successes and 10 failures. Of course you pick up a bit of loose change with the other... [ More ]

Reply #10

hypersoniq — Sat, 07 Aug 2004 00:25:56 GMT

my last paragraph is straightforward.... powerball is 2 games, a 5 of 53 and then a 1 of 42... by buying 42 tickets, each with a diffferent powerball number, you have beat the second of 2 games... but not at a cost-effective return... ($3 for a $42 investment)what I am trying to say is that you have no control over the possible outcomes, nothing you can do will change th fact that 1,000 possibilities exist for the pick 3... you only have control of the number of FAVORABLE outcomes...by buying mo... [ More ]

Reply #9

LottoFan — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 21:51:15 GMT

dragon, I believe you are correct. What gets confusing is the way some lotto players express themselves. If one is not careful, one can make a grave mistake in their mental equations (such as): odds = probabilities = tickets = combinations. Each one is a different animal (so-to-speak), but all are related....which is probably responsible for the confusion . As you say, the California Lottery has 42 million different combinations. I have been examining lotteries in terms of combinations

Reply #8

dragon — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 14:12:29 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Bertil on August 06, 2004Quote: Originally posted by dragon on August 05, 2004 You cannot buy 42 million different tickets, because that is practically impossible. You might be able to buy 42 million random tickets, in which case about one third of all possible numbers would remain not bought, because there will be duplications. This is the result of probability rules. BertilWe're not talking about what is practical here. We're talking calculating mathematic... [ More ]

Reply #7

Todd — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 12:41:12 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by JKING on August 05, 2004That fact that alot of people do indeed confuse this issue is exactly why I brought it up.So see if you agree:My odds of winning, personnally, if I play one ticket is (1/42,000,000)*100Then if I buy ten tickets, I've increased my personnal chances of winning tenfold, but now have the odds of (41,999,998/42,000,000)*100 In any case, even if you buy ten tickets, your odds of winning are incredibly low, even though you increased your own chances t... [ More ]

Reply #6

Bertil — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 12:25:34 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by dragon on August 05, 2004Hypersoniq:Does your last paragraph not contradict your first 5 paragraphs?We have written about this topic ad-nauseum here. I think it's a matter of nomenclature. If I buy 42 million different tickets, I am guaranteed the jackpot, so my chances of winning are 1:1. When I buy one ticket, my chances are 1:42M, if I buy two tickets, my chances are 2 in 42M that I win the jackpot. And so on. The more tickets I buy, the better a chance I have that... [ More ]

Reply #5

dragon — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 04:16:31 GMT

You mean (10/42,000,000)*100, don't you

Reply #4

JKING — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 02:17:48 GMT

That fact that alot of people do indeed confuse this issue is exactly why I brought it up.So see if you agree:My odds of winning, personnally, if I play one ticket is (1/42,000,000)*100Then if I buy ten tickets, I've increased my personnal chances of winning tenfold, but now have the odds of (41,999,998/42,000,000)*100 In any case, even if you buy ten tickets, your odds of winning are incredibly low, even though you increased your own chances tenfold.

Reply #3

dragon — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 01:09:00 GMT

Hypersoniq:Does your last paragraph not contradict your first 5 paragraphs?We have written about this topic ad-nauseum here. I think it's a matter of nomenclature. If I buy 42 million different tickets, I am guaranteed the jackpot, so my chances of winning are 1:1. When I buy one ticket, my chances are 1:42M, if I buy two tickets, my chances are 2 in 42M that I win the jackpot. And so on. The more tickets I buy, the better a chance I have that one of the tickets wins.I think that's what you are... [ More ]

Reply #2

Todd — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 01:06:03 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by JKING on August 05, 2004I'm told the odds of winning the California lottery is about 1 in 42 million. So, if I buy one ticket my odds are 42 million to one. There are thos who would say that if I bought two tickets, my odds whould be 21 million to 1, or half. Intuitively, how did I eliminate 21 million combinations? If I bout two tickets, wouldn't my odds be 41,999,998 to one, because I've only elimated to possible combinations.JKING,You did not eliminate possibilitie... [ More ]

Reply #1

hypersoniq — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 00:54:18 GMT

I firmly believe that the stated odds is an equation that cannot be reduced...for my example let's look at pick3...1 ticket, odds are 1 in 1,000 it is a SINGLE EVENT you are betting on.2 tickets, odds are 2:1,000 (the 1,000 is fixed because it is the number of possible outcomes.... now you have increased the number of FAVORABLE outcomes to 2, but this in no way reduces the possible outcomes... and they are still only drawing ONE combo)most people don't see it my way, if that helps them justify p... [ More ]

Dumb question of the day

JKING — Fri, 06 Aug 2004 00:09:21 GMT

I'm told the odds of winning the California lottery is about 1 in 42 million. So, if I buy one ticket my odds are 42 million to one. There are thos who would say that if I bought two tickets, my odds whould be 21 million to 1, or half. Intuitively, how did I eliminate 21 million combinations? If I bout two tickets, wouldn't my odds be 41,999,998 to one, because I've only elimated to possible combinations.