Need help equating flipping pennies to

Reply #16

Colin F — Tue, 24 Aug 2004 14:25:16 GMT

dudaWelcome to LP and the Mathematics section.Now FastEddy is pretty quick on the uptake but for the passing browser I think we should clarify a few things with your minimalist method. I have to confess I think this is a variation on the method first promulgated on this forum by WinSumLoseSum - hopefully he didn't patent it, otherwise you could be facing a huge sum to pay out in punitive damages.Firstly, we must point out to people that the 10 on the penny is not a 10 and in a reverse applicatio... [ More ]

Reply #15

duda — Mon, 23 Aug 2004 12:07:56 GMT

fast eddie, your penney fliping takes to much time. mark 10 pennies 1 through 10. put in cup shake and draw one out - thats your 1st number - do this 3 more times and you will have a 4 number random pick you will hit or be close alot of times

Reply #14

Colin F — Mon, 23 Aug 2004 09:45:53 GMT

johnph77By this remark to Bug: - An interesting point because whatever you do on your Computer is at some stage translated into a binary format. I meant only to acknowledge that all data is stored in binary in a computer; maybe displayed in Hex.Colin

Reply #13

johnph77 — Mon, 23 Aug 2004 07:28:04 GMT

Colin F -Sorry, there's an oversimplification here. In a binary solution each coin would be addressed separately. If you have 2 pennies and you toss them 4 times, the probability is that you will have one incidence of two heads, one incidence of two tails and two incidences of one head AND one tail. But the binary solution precludes this and the incidences appear as HH, HT, TH and TT, or, more correctly, 00, 01, 10 and 11. Note that the odds of having one head and one tails is still 50% in any c... [ More ]

Reply #12

Colin F — Mon, 23 Aug 2004 05:11:32 GMT

BugAn interesting point because whatever you do on your Computer is at some stage translated into a binary format.However, because the coins fall with no discernable order permutations don't apply. So 2 coins gives 3 combinations, 3 coins gives 4 Combinations etc.To bring our picking of the coin from the bucket into line with the other two examples we must close our eyes, extract the coin in a level position and lay it on the ground and hope for a winning combination of one head and the rest all... [ More ]

Reply #11

Bug — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 22:51:01 GMT

Colin F, I think this is a binary problem. Grabbing one penny from a bucket yeilds a 1 in 2 possibility. The last two are basically the same, and the number is rather large. 1 in 2^1000. more than my calculator cares to print out. Three pennies yield eight possible combinations or 2^3 = 8, and the number doubles with every additional penny.

Reply #10

Colin F — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 22:29:42 GMT

johnph77There's something intuitively that doesn't seem right to me.If I thrust my hand into a bucket of 1000 pennies to win if I pull out a Head what are my chances?If I toss a coin 1000 times to win with a Head and the rest of the tosses Tails what are my chances?If I throw 1000 pennies from a bucket to win if a Head comes up and the rest are Tails what are my chances?The beat goes onLa de da de da ...Colin

Reply #9

johnph77 — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 16:55:34 GMT

Colin F -Those who would question you are thinking the bucket is half empty, you think of it as half full - if you have the correctly-sized bucket. How dare they!?If they remain persistent, just hand the entire bucket over to them. The only place they'll be able to redeem 1,000 pennies is the bank, and you'll have the pleasure of watching them lug the weight around for all that distance. Even better, hold one of the pennies back - you can toss that one 1,000 times.gljohn

Reply #8

johnph77 — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 16:47:44 GMT

fast eddie -You have 36 ways of having 3 of 4 in a Pick 4 drawing.Number drawn is 1234.You would have 3 of 4 with 123x, 12x4, 1x34 and x234, where x would be any drawn number. But 36 of these draws would be a true 3/4 win, the other four would be the (correct) 1234.gljohn

Reply #7

hypersoniq — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 13:07:50 GMT

each digit drawn is 10:1pick 3 of 3 is 1000:1 (or 3 successive 10:1 dvents)pick 3 of 4 is still 1000:1pick 4 of 4 is 10,000:1 (or 4 successive 10:1 dvents)Since a penny toss is a 2:1 dvent, the closest analogy would be to toss 3 pennies, heads=even, tails=odd....

Reply #6

fast eddie — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 12:59:20 GMT

I have another question, when playing pick four if I get three out of four digits in exact order mathematically how far down the road did I get? I know I was as close to hitting a straight as I could be but was I really that close? After listening to johnph77 I don't know if I want to play anymore, or at least as much as I do. Thanks for the help. Eddie.

Reply #5

Colin F — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 11:44:40 GMT

fast eddieMaybe, rather than tossing the coins above one's head unless one is prepared to head tail out of there in a flash and according to your name you should be alright one could empty a bucket of coins out of a window after checking for any heads below. This however raises the possibility of some questioning from other members as to whether the coins were equally worn and randomly distributed in the bucket. Actually it's not a bad analogy as people can relate to the unlikelihood of all coin... [ More ]

Reply #4

Colin F — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 10:23:46 GMT

johnph77I was summoned to dinner. It's non stop Dinner is Ready every 15 seconds until I come. I knew I should have deleted it.I was only thinking of one throw with 1,000 pennies. Now let's see what is that ...maybe 999 pennies!Colin

Reply #3

johnph77 — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 09:18:27 GMT

Colin F -There are 1.0715x(10 to the 301st power) possible outcomes of the thousand tosses. In all those outcomes the possibility of one head and 999 tails will occur 1,000 times, so the odds of that occurance will be 1::1.0715x(10 to the 298th power). A tad longer than hitting the straight Pick 3.....gljohn

Reply #2

Colin F — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 08:30:36 GMT

fast eddieI'm talking off the top of my head here but if you had 1000 pennies and the winning outcome was to have say one head come up and the rest all tails isn't that eqivalent to your straight in a pick 3 ie 1000 to 1?Colin

Reply #1

johnph77 — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 04:08:17 GMT

fast eddie -Sad to say, they are not analogous. If there was a heads/tails method of accomplishing what you're proposing the total possibilities of the lottery would have to be a number that is equal to 2 multiplied by itself a specific - or any - number of times, and no lottery I've researched meets that requirement exactly.It makes not a bit of difference whether one penny is flipped a thousand times or a thousand pennies are flipped once each, the expected outcome, odds and probabilities rema... [ More ]

Need help equating flipping pennies to

fast eddie — Sun, 22 Aug 2004 03:34:35 GMT

Can anyone tell me using the analogy of flipping pennies what you would have to get in order to equate it to a pick three straight, pick four straight and maybe even 5/39, 6/52 lotteries.for example a pick four staight I think is 1,000 to 1In in order to get a straight, am I flipping 40 pennies and they all have to land the same side or am I flipping 4 groups of 10 pennies and 1 to be different than all the rest within each group or am I flipping 1,000 pennies and they have to all land the same