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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.Reply
The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $9.4M. The advertised annuity value is $20M. Second round jackpots on average sell 14.3M in tickets. If this number of tickets is sold for this draw, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 090.30% 19.21% 20.47% 30.02% The long term modelling function suggests the following: Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSi
Nov 9, 2006, 1:08 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $37.1M ; the advertised annuity is $63M. Seventh round jackpots sell on average, 21.7M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 088.39% 110.90% 20.67% 30.03% The long term probability modelling function is pretty much on the money right now. It predicts as follows: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Ann
Nov 8, 2006, 4:00 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.Reply
The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $9.4M. The advertised annuity value is $20M. Second round jackpots on average sell 14.3M in tickets. If this number of tickets is sold for this draw, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 090.65% 18.90% 20.44% 30.01% My mixed linear exponential model for long term probability of this run's continuance is as follows: Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCa
Nov 5, 2006, 1:45 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $30.4M ; the advertised annuity is $52M. Sixth round jackpots sell on average, 19.3M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 089.56% 19.88% 20.54% 30.02% The long term probability model function is within 3% of actual events. It suggests that the probability of the jackpot growing is as follows: Historical Average Advertised
Nov 4, 2006, 8:03 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $24.6M ; the advertised annuity is $42M. Third round jackpots sell on average, 18.7M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 089.92% 19.55% 20.51% 30.02% The long term modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calcula
Nov 1, 2006, 4:52 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $18.7M; the advertised annuity is $32M. Third round jackpots sell on average, 16.8M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 090.85% 18.71% 20.42% 30.01% The long term modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeMode
Oct 28, 2006, 10:16 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $13.8M; the advertised annuity is $24M. Third round jackpots sell on average, 15.9M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 091.31% 18.30% 20.38% 30.01% The long term modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Cal
Oct 25, 2006, 2:04 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $9.2M; the advertised annuity is $16M. Second round jackpots sell on average, 15.0M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 091.81% 17.84% 20.34% 30.01% The long term modeling function suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculat
Oct 21, 2006, 8:53 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over, and the cash value is now $26.2M. The advertised annuity value is $45M. The average 5th draw produces 18.6M in sales. If the next drawing sells an average number of tickets, the randomized Poisson probability for various numbers of winners is as follows: 089.94% 19.54% 20.51% 30.02% The exponential modelling function gives the following long term probability for the long term evolution of the jackpot: Historical Average
Oct 11, 2006, 2:45 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $8.8M, the advertised annuity is $15M. Second round jackpots on average sell 15.0 M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the distribution of probability of various numbers of winners will be: 091.83% 17.82% 20.33% 30.01% The mathematical model for jackpot evolution, which tends to be more accurate in later drawings suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel
Sep 30, 2006, 8:31 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum