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Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
I think when they sold us Faster growing jackpots they forgot to factor in what could actually happen i.e the jackpot being won sooner. Weird, isn't it? They talk a lot about the upside but not the downside. Revenue per draw is up a bit, but a fair chunk of the revenue goes to pay for the mandatory megaplier. That means the slightly greater revenue isn't enough to put more money towards the jackpot based on the ticket sales we've seen so far. Ticket sales are pretty close to half of wha
Jul 1, 2025, 4:03 am - KY Floyd - Lottery Discussion Forum

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
The last two jackpot wins were unusually low, statistically speaking. For the $348M win, there were 7 million tickets sold. 7 million tickets with a 1 in 290 million chance of winning means the probability that no one wins it is 97.6%. 2.4% chance that someone would win is pretty small but it can happen, and it did. For the $112M win, there were only 5.4 million tickets sold. 5.4 million tickets with a 1 in 290 million chance of winning means the probability that no one wins it is 98.2%
Jun 28, 2025, 5:36 pm - Tucker Black - Lottery Discussion Forum

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
Here are some possibilities about what's coming. It takes 201 million tickets to reach a 50% chance of getting a winner. We obviously can't get a winner in any of the previous drawings, so from this point there's a 50% chance that the cash value will reach about $668 million. At the current interest rate that would be an advertised annuity of $1.44 billion. On average it takes 292.47 million tickets to produce each winner, so once the cash value has reached $391.7 million (tonight's valu
Nov 8, 2025, 1:56 am - KY Floyd - Lottery Discussion Forum

$1.8 billion Powerball jackpot to be split by two tickets sold in Missouri and TexasReply
Right now the $164.5 million cash value of MM is 45.95% of the $358 million annuity. With the annuity at 35.8% of 1 billion the cash value at the same interest rate has to be $164.5 / .358 for a $1 billion annuity. That's $459.5 million. Flipping it around, it will take a hair under 2.8 times as much money for 1 billion as for 358 million. Total sales through Saturday are forecast to be $609,162,600 and 121,832,520 tickets. 2.8 time that is 340,314,302 tickets (and total revenue of just over
Sep 7, 2025, 5:43 pm - KY Floyd - Lottery News

Powerball reaches $643 million: highest lottery jackpot of 2025Reply
The annual increases in the annuity payment makes the proportion of lump sum to annuity smaller. Right, but you're reversing the cause and the effect. The graduated payments inflate the annuity, making it bigger than it would be with fixed payments. The flip side to that is that with fixed payments the proportion of annuity to lump sum is smaller. Every dollar in the prize pool (the cause) buys less annuity value (the effect). Of course, the lump sum is the real number since it's based
Aug 23, 2025, 2:33 am - KY Floyd - Lottery News

Mega Millions constant $10 million increasesReply
A $2 prize (times whatever multiplier, so $4 to $20) for matching two white balls would add 18% to the value of all non-jackpot prizes in total. That's a lot for such a small win. More accurately a $2 prize for matching 2 white balls would reduce the money that goes to the jackpot by about 14.6%. That would reduce the current cash value of $67.9 million to $58 million. For those who believe the advertising it would reduce the current $150 million annuity to $128 million if they abandoned or
Aug 4, 2025, 3:19 am - KY Floyd - Lottery Discussion Forum

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
Yes, it's very telling the advertised jackpot increase is only $10 M after 8 rollovers. Do you understand how the game and its financing work? Both PB and MM have always started with artificially high jackpots that aren't fully funded, and never had more than the minimum increase until there's enough cash to fully fund the jackpot. The smaller jackpot of the old format was funded quickly. With the new format the jackpot would remain artificially high for more drawings with exactly the same
Jul 27, 2025, 5:17 am - KY Floyd - Lottery Discussion Forum

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
My contention is that this run is already at the 40/41 rollover point because of the $50M starting point as opposed to $20M. I don't think anyone's arguing against that, including the people at MM. Unlike some people here the people at MM probably don't care, even if they wish it had grown faster. For about 35 of those drawings revenue was up compared to the $2 price, and only the last few drawings have seen revenue drop relative to the $2 tickets, but MM is playing the long game. The curre
Nov 12, 2025, 2:14 am - KY Floyd - Lottery Discussion Forum

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
You spoke my mind, for MM to be won at the 300M mark, not sure about the bigger jackpots advertising - maybe it's too early. Do people here believe the morons who carry a snowball into congress in February and claim that global warming is a hoax because it still snows on some cold winter days? Just as a February snowfall and the recent extremely hot days aren't indicators of the yearly average, those two jackpots are statistically unusual (although vastly more likely than a player winning b
Jun 29, 2025, 12:21 am - KY Floyd - Lottery Discussion Forum

Probability of winning with multiple tickets
In this thread we will discuss how to calculate your odds of winning a draw game if you buy more than one ticket. Any lottery's website gives you the odds, but that is for one ticket. When you buy more than one ticket, you can calculate your odds of winning simply by dividing the stated odds by the number of tickets you hold. Let's take, for example, a Pick 2 game. Even if your state's lottery doesn't operate a Pick 2, if they operate a Pick 3 and let you bet on the front pair or bac
Mar 29, 2026, 2:52 am - Tucker Black - Lottery Discussion Forum