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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The estimated cash jackpot is $51.5M. The advertised annuity is $88M. The average 8th draw in a run produces $23.M in sales. (The Standard Deviation is 2.3M). If an average number of tickets are sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 087.75% 111.47% 20.75% 30.03% Here is the long term program model: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity Prize
Mar 31, 2007, 12:07 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM has rolled over. The cash prize is now $43.4M. The advertised annuity is $74M. Average sales for 6th round draws are 21.2M. If this draw produces average sales, the probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 088.64% 110.69% 20.64% 30.03% The long term probability model suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Model Roll
Mar 29, 2007, 8:09 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The field is 50% covered at about 122 million tickets sold, according to the Poisson distribution. The MM jackpot, has of course, rolled over. The cash value is $158M. The advertised annuity is $267M. The average number of tickets sold on 15th drawings is $72.0M. However there are only three such drawings involved in this average, but the last of them produced sales of $96M. This series of drawings from early in 2006, ending in February, closely followed the tragectory of the curre
Feb 28, 2007, 10:18 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is is 126.9M. The advertised annuity is $216M. Fourteenth draws sell on average 61.7M tickets. This suggests the following probability for various numbers of winners: 070.78% 124.46% 24.23% 30.49% 40.04% The long term probability model suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Model Rollove
Feb 24, 2007, 5:35 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is now $88.3M. The advertised annuity is $150M. The averages sales for 12th round drawings is 41.6M. Sales at this level would produce the following probabilities for various numbers of winner: 078.90% 118.70% 22.22% 30.17% 40.01% The long range model suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculate
Feb 18, 2007, 11:37 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $75.6M. The advertised annuity jackpot is $130M. The average number of tickets sold on an 11th round draw is 35.6M. If this is the number of tickets that are sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is: 081.65% 116.55% 21.68% 30.11% 40.01% Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Model Rollo
Feb 14, 2007, 11:02 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $61.9M. The advertised annuity is $106M. Tenth round draws sell on average $31.5M in sales. If this drawing produces average sales, the probability of various numbers of winners resulting is as follows: 083.57% 115.00% 21.35% 30.08% The long term exponential form modelling equation for MM suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Ca
Feb 10, 2007, 11:09 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash prize is $44.7M, the advertised annuity is $7M. Eight round drawings in MM sell on average 23.1M tickets. This suggests that the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 087.67% 111.54% 20.76% 30.03% The long term model suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Model Rollover ProbabilityOverall Calculated
Feb 3, 2007, 1:17 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash prize is $37.5M, the advertised annuity is $65M. Seventh round drawings in MM sell on average 21.1M tickets. This suggests that the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 088.67% 110.66% 20.64% 30.03% The long term model for jackpot evolution is as follows: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Model Rollover Probab
Jan 31, 2007, 7:57 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $71.6M. The advertised annuity value is $122M. Eleventh round draws sell on average $34.9M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 083.57% 115.00% 21.35% 30.08% For the last draw, sales were above average. However for the entire run, sales a running just above historical lows for an 11 draw run. The modeling function I use, which is ba
Jan 6, 2007, 9:31 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum