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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won. The value of the prize is reset to $7.0M cash, $12.0M annuity. First draws average $15.1, although the drawing beginning the last run was the lowest recorded since the matrix change. If an average number of tickets sell on this round, the distribution probability for various numbers of winners is as follows: 091.76% 17.89% 20.34% 30.01% The long term jackpot evolution model, which ignores minimums predicts the following:
Jan 10, 2007, 1:16 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
I didn't change all of the numbers in the opening paragraph of my last post. Here is the corrected post: MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $42.7M. The advertised annuity value is $72M. Seventh round draws sell on average $23.1 tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 087.68% 111.53% 20.76% 30.03% The long term projections, based on a mathematical model generated
Dec 28, 2006, 9:39 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $29/7M. The advertised annuity value is $60M. Sixth round draws sell on average $19.4M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 089.60% 19.84% 20.54% 30.02% The long term model suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Mo
Dec 20, 2006, 2:17 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $23.9M. The advertised annuity value is $40M. Fifth round draws sell on average $18.6M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 089.97% 19.51% 20.50% 30.02% The long term model for jackpot evolution suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle D
Dec 16, 2006, 10:31 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $17.9M. The advertised annuity value is $30M. Fourth round draws sell on average $16.7M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 090.94% 18.64% 20.41% 30.01% The model for long term evolution of the jackpot suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated
Dec 13, 2006, 10:13 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $13.1M. The advertised annuity value is $22M. Third round draws sell on average $15.9M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 091.33% 18.28% 20.38% 30.01% The modeling fuction suggests the following for the long term evolution of the jackpot: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calcul
Dec 9, 2006, 2:59 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $9.0M. The advertised annuity value is $15M. Second round draws sell on average $14.9M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 091.87% 17.79% 20.33% 30.01% The long term modeling program I use, which does not account for jackpot minima, suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity P
Dec 6, 2006, 9:48 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won. The cash prize is reset to $7.2M and the advertised annuity is $12M. Average 1st draws produce 15.2M in sales. Selling an average number of tickets would result in the following distribution for the probability of various numbers of winners: 091.72% 17.93% 20.34% 30.01% Here is the long term probability, which ignores minimums, focusing on models generated from sales figures and what sales actually contribute to jackpots: Hi
Dec 3, 2006, 10:12 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $23.9M. The advertised annuity value is $40M. Fifth round draws sell on average $18.6M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 089.94% 19.54% 20.51% 30.02% The long term curve fitting model suggests the following for the probability for evolution of the jackpot: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated An
Nov 29, 2006, 11:21 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $18.4M. The advertised annuity value is $31M. Fourth round draws sell on average $16.8M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 090.90% 18.67% 20.41% 30.01% The long term curve fitting model suggests the following for the probability for evolution of the jackpot. Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuit
Nov 25, 2006, 5:14 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum