Search

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $13.6M. The advertised annuity value is $23M. Second round draws sell on average $15.9M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is distributed as follows: 091.32% 18.29% 20.38% 30.01% The long term probability model suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calcu
Nov 22, 2006, 8:21 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won. The cash prize is reset to $7.1M and the advertised annuity is $12M. Average 1st draws produce 15.2M in sales. Selling an average number of tickets would result in the following distribution for the probability of various numbers of winners: 091.71% 17.93% 20.34% 30.01% Here is the long term probability, which ignores minimums: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Ca
Nov 15, 2006, 11:38 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $37.1M ; the advertised annuity is $63M. Seventh round jackpots sell on average, 21.7M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 088.39% 110.90% 20.67% 30.03% The long term probability modelling function is pretty much on the money right now. It predicts as follows: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Ann
Nov 8, 2006, 4:00 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $30.4M ; the advertised annuity is $52M. Sixth round jackpots sell on average, 19.3M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 089.56% 19.88% 20.54% 30.02% The long term probability model function is within 3% of actual events. It suggests that the probability of the jackpot growing is as follows: Historical Average Advertised
Nov 4, 2006, 8:03 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $24.6M ; the advertised annuity is $42M. Third round jackpots sell on average, 18.7M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 089.92% 19.55% 20.51% 30.02% The long term modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calcula
Nov 1, 2006, 4:52 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $18.7M; the advertised annuity is $32M. Third round jackpots sell on average, 16.8M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 090.85% 18.71% 20.42% 30.01% The long term modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeMode
Oct 28, 2006, 10:16 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $13.8M; the advertised annuity is $24M. Third round jackpots sell on average, 15.9M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 091.31% 18.30% 20.38% 30.01% The long term modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Cal
Oct 25, 2006, 2:04 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $9.2M; the advertised annuity is $16M. Second round jackpots sell on average, 15.0M in tickets. If an average amount is sold, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 091.81% 17.84% 20.34% 30.01% The long term modeling function suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculat
Oct 21, 2006, 8:53 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won and the jackpot has been reset to $6.9M cash and $12M as an advertised annuity. The average number of sales for a first round drawing is $14.3M. If this is how many tickets sell this draw, the probability distribution for numbers of winners is as follows: 091.67% 17.97% 20.35% 30.01% The exponential modeling function gives giving the probability of a number of future rollovers: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsMod
Oct 19, 2006, 7:07 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $31.8M. The advertised annuity is $55M. Average sixth round draws sell 19.5M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell that the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table: 089.49% 19.94% 20.55% 30.02% The exponential modeling function gives giving the probability of a number of future rollovers: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity
Oct 14, 2006, 1:59 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum