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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $14.7M. The advertised annuity value is $25M. The average third draw sells $14.7M. If this draw sells this much, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 091.95% 17.72% 20.32% 30.01% The model for Jackpot growth predicts the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calculated Annuity PrizeModel Calculated Cash ValueSingle Draw Calculated Model Ro
Oct 4, 2006, 8:53 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $8.8M, the advertised annuity is $15M. Second round jackpots on average sell 15.0 M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the distribution of probability of various numbers of winners will be: 091.83% 17.82% 20.33% 30.01% The mathematical model for jackpot evolution, which tends to be more accurate in later drawings suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel
Sep 30, 2006, 8:31 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won. The jackpot has been reset to $7.1M cash, $12M for the advertised annuity. It happens that to have been won on a second draw, after a previous sequence in which the jackpot was won on the first draw was a 7 in 1000 shot. The average sales for opening runs is 15.3M. If this is how many tickets that sell, the randomized distribution probability for various numbers of winners is as follows: 091.67% 17.98% 20.35% 30.01% The long ter
Sep 27, 2006, 7:51 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $8.8M. The advertised annuity is $15.0M. The average number of tickets sold for a second draw in a series is $14.0M. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is given as follows: 092.33% 17.37% 20.29% 30.01% The long term jackpot evolution model, an exponential function generating model sales, predicts the following probabilities for this run: Historical Ave
Sep 23, 2006, 12:25 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won and the jackpot has been reset to $7.0M cash and $12M as an advertised annuity. The average number of sales for a first round drawing is $14.3M. If this is how many tickets sell this draw, the probability distribution for numbers of winners is as follows: 092.18% 17.51% 20.31% 30.01% The long term proability model function, which ignores minimums and reserves suggests the following behavior: Historical Average Advertised Annu
Sep 16, 2006, 8:46 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash value prize is estimated at $55.4M; the advertised annuity value is $95M. The average sales for an 10th round draw is $32.M. If this is the number of tickets sold on this draw, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 083.19% 115.31% 21.41% 30.09% The exponential modeling program shows the following jackpot evolution long term: Historical Average Advertised Annuity JackpotsModel Calc
Sep 2, 2006, 10:33 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash value prize is estimated at $40.5M; the advertised annuity value is $70M. The average sales for an 8th round draw is $23.7M. If this is the number of tickets sold on this draw, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows: 087.36% 111.81% 20.80% 30.04% The current run is lagging behind average runs at this level, possibly because it's been quite some time since MM has offered a jackpot this large.
Aug 26, 2006, 12:59 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is $22.9M. The advertised annuity is $40M. The average number of sales for a 5th drawing is 18.9M. If this is how many tickets sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners is: 089.82% 19.64% 20.52% 30.02% The modeling function for the jackpot evolution suggests the following: (Average Annuity, M)$613,563,034.34$352,131,82843.88%0.25% $533,377,293.50$306,112,18648.53%0.56% $462,992,
Aug 16, 2006, 6:48 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $19.4M, the advertised annuity value is $34M. Third round drawings in MM have, on average, 17.7M in sales. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 090.42% 19.11% 20.46% 30.02% The long term probability model function for jackpot evolution, wherein the first column is historal averages of annuities, the second column is the model annuity, the third column i
Jun 14, 2006, 7:51 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the prize is 23.0M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $41M. The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball The average sales for MM 4th round drawings is $17.8M. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 090.47% 19.06% 20.45% 30.02% In the previous jackpot run, which established some records for jackpot growth before settling down to
Apr 29, 2006, 7:49 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum