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The odds of both neither, just one.Reply
Prize Values MegaMillions Cash Value$24,600,000 MegaMillions Annuity Value$42,000,000 Powerball Cash Value$7,100,000 Powerball Annuity Value$15,000,000 Type of OutcomeProbability Powerball Rolls.90.46% Megamillions Rolls89.92% Both Roll81.34% Powerball Rolls, MM won9.12% MM Rolls, Powerball won.8.58% Both won.0.96% Either, but not both, won17.70% Type of Outcome Calculated From Mathematical Models of Jackpot Behavior MM exceeds 100M annui
Nov 2, 2006, 5:02 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

The odds of both neither, just one.Reply
I have updated the spreadsheet used for this thread to include some additional data that seems to be of interest. If anyone finds this too cluttered, please let me know: Prize Values MegaMillions Cash Value$18,700,000 MegaMillions Annuity Value$32,000,000 Powerball Cash Value$44,000,000.00 Powerball Annuity Value$93,000,000.00 Type of OutcomeProbability Powerball Rolls.86.53% Megamillions Rolls90.85% Both Roll78.62% Powerball Rolls, MM won7.91%
Oct 31, 2006, 10:02 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is $28.2M. The advertised annuity is $49M. The average number of sales for a 5th drawing is 19.9M, but sales have been lower than average. If, nonetheless, this is how many tickets sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners is: 089.30% 110.11% 20.57% 30.02% The long term model for jackpot evolution suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity Jackpots$613,661,187.0
Aug 20, 2006, 1:21 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is $28.2M. The advertised annuity is $49M. The average number of sales for a 5th drawing is 19.9M, but sales have been lower than average. If, nonetheless, this is how many tickets sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners is: 089.30% 110.11% 20.57% 30.02% The long term model for jackpot evolution suggests the following: Historical Average Advertised Annuity Jackpots$613,661,187.0
Aug 20, 2006, 1:21 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $17.6M, the advertised annuity jackpot is $31.0M. The average number of tickets sold on a third drawing in an MM rolling sequence is 16.9M tickets. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability distribution for numbers of winners will be the following: 090.82% 18.74% 20.42% 30.01% The modelling function gives the following probability chart for jackpot evolution: Historical Average Annuity Value$612,654
Aug 13, 2006, 9:02 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $13.2M, the advertised annuity jackpot is $23.0M. The average number of tickets sold on a third drawing in an MM rolling sequence is 15.97M tickets. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability distribution for numbers of winners will be the following: 091.31% 18.30% 20.38% 30.01% The long term probability for the evolution of the jackpot is as follows: $541,956,738.63$305,603,38348.99%0.48% $
Aug 9, 2006, 8:53 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has been won and reset to the $6.8M cash value and $12M annuity value. First round drawings in MM typically sell 15.5M tickets. If this is how many tickets are sold, then the distribution of winners will be as follows: 091.58% 18.06% 20.35% 30.01% The long term probability looks like this: (Average Annuity, M)$409,469,345.57$230,895,21457.99%1.60% $315 $355,472,288.41$200,446,87461.85%2.77% $262 $307,855,282.82$173,596,17365.46%4.47%
Aug 3, 2006, 7:43 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM has rolled. The cash jackpot is now $17.6M. The advertised annuity is $31M. On average, fourth drawings in MM since the matrix change average $17.6 in sales. If this is how many tickets sell, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 090.61% 18.93% 20.44% 30.01% The long term exponential function for modelled jackpot evolution looks like this: $540,056,535.81$304,531,88049.68%0.54% $470,742,277.20$265,446,340
Jul 29, 2006, 6:51 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The most recent MM drawing rolled. The cash value is $13.0M; the advertised annuity is $23M. If the current drawing sells an average amount for third drawings, the sales will be 16.0M and the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be: 091.03% 18.55% 20.40% 30.01% The long term jackpot evolution model based on average data and curve fitting suggests the following: $540,013,762.28$304,507,76049.70%0.49% $470,741,031.42$265,445,637
Jul 28, 2006, 10:41 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
MM has been won. The jackpot is reset at $6.8M cash, 12M annuity. The average 1st draw sells 15.9M tickets. The winner probability distribution is, if the draw sells an average number of tickets, as follows: 091.35% 18.27% 20.37% 30.01% Here is the long term probability: $470,784,121.87$265,469,93554.34%0.86% (Average Annuity, M)$410,344,090.99$231,388,47458.32%1.59% $315 $356,919,038.34$201,262,68062.09%2.73% $262 $309,694,769.77$174,633,44065.62%4.39
Jun 28, 2006, 5:37 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum