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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The megamillions jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is now $12.9M and the advertised annuity is $23M. The average sales on third drawings in a series is 16.5M. If this is the number of tickets that are sold, the probability of various numbers of winner will be as follows: 091.04% 18.55% 20.40% 30.01% Sales continue to run below average owing to the large in state jackpots in the three largest populaton states, Texas, New York and California. Thus, depending on wha
Jun 24, 2006, 5:09 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

A New Lucky For Life
O.K. I live in PA, and I think our lottery is among America's best. But one thing that drives me nuts is Lucky For Life's top prize, $36,000/year for life. What the heck is that? That kind of money may work if you live in a trailer park by yourself, but try raising a family, or living anywhere near Philly. You're gonna have to keep working if you wanna live comfortably. That's why I propose this. It's Lucky For Life, bigger and better. And played an awful lot like the 6/49 up in Canada. Price
Jun 23, 2006, 5:12 am - JimmySand9 - Lottery Discussion Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The megamillions jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is now $9.0M and the advertised annuity is $16M. Note that the last drawing produced the record lowest sales since the matrix change, 13.567M in sales. With California, NY and Texas all having larger in state jackpots, this is not surprising. Nevertheless, the average number of tickets sold for second MM drawings is 15.9M. If MM manages to reach this figure on this draw, the probability of various numbers of winners will be as fol
Jun 21, 2006, 11:09 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $14.2M, the advertised annuity value is $25M. Third round drawings in MM have, on average, 16.7M in sales. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 090.93% 18.64% 20.41% 30.01% The model for the long term jackpot suggests a long term probability for jackpot evolution: $470,781,910.85$265,468,68954.42%1.00% (Average Annuity, M)$410,498,465.65$231,475,
Jun 10, 2006, 8:20 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $9.6M. The advertised annuity value is $17M. The average sales for a 2nd draw is about $15.9M. If this is the number of tickets that sell, then the random propability for numbers of winners is as follows: 091.50% 18.12% 20.36% 30.01% $470,777,282.83$265,466,07954.43%0.86% (Average Annuity, M)$410,508,103.27$231,480,95858.40%1.59% $315 $357,207,299.69$201,425,22762.14%2.72% $262 $310,069,182.30$174,844,
Jun 7, 2006, 7:43 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $26.5M. The advertised annuity value is $47M. The average sales for a 5th draw is about $19.1. If this is the number of tickets that sell, then the random propability for numbers of winners is as follows: 089.70% 19.75% 20.53% 30.02% The long term data suggests the following behavior over the long term: $470,741,476.33$265,445,88854.46%1.20% (Average Annuity, M)$410,525,271.86$231,490,63958.42%2
May 31, 2006, 7:21 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MegaMillions jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $15.2M. The advertised annuity jackpot is $27M. The average number of tickets sold for 3rd draw sales in $16.6M. If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability distribution for numbers of winners is given in this table: 090.99% 18.60% 20.41% 30.01% The long term probability model gives the following predictions: $541,947,390.96$303,818,99250.34%0.50% $473,540,086.68$265,469,44354.49%1.00% (Ave
May 24, 2006, 7:23 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the prize is 37.0M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $66M. The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball. As explained earlier, because the MM is running a little higher than average, although not record breaking, I will treat this draw as a 7th draw, rather than an 6th draw. The reason is that the long term behavior matches the models better under this circumstance. Seventh draws average 21.5M in sales.
May 6, 2006, 8:01 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the prize is 30.4M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $54M. The cash value of the MM has leapfrogged higher than that of the Powerball. For statistical purposes I am treating next this jackpot like a sixth and not an average fifth, based on performance. The average sales for MM 6th round drawings is $20.2M. If this is the number of tickets sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 089.09% 110.29% 20.
May 3, 2006, 4:42 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.Reply
Powerball has rolled. The cash jackpot is $16.8M. The annuity jackpot is $37M. Since the matrix change, 4th draws in a series have sold 14.3M tickets on average. If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 090.68% 18.87% 20.43% 30.01% The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) is already relatively close at predicting the cash values - the cash values being what it is designed to predict.
Apr 23, 2006, 6:42 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum