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Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM jackpot has rolled. The cash value is estimated at 11.2M; the annuity at $20M. Second draws average 15.9M in sales. If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows: 091.35% 18.27% 20.37% 30.01% Although the long term probability does not give accurate figures for the first several draws, it is a fair estimate over the long run. Here is what it predicts for jackpot evolution. $540,637,881.41$303,777,28550.06%0.
Apr 22, 2006, 5:11 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM has been won. The annuity value is $12M. The cash value is $6.7M. First draw ticket average sales are 15.7M. If this many tickets are sold, the following numbers of winners are probable: 091.45% 18.17% 20.37% 30.01% My model gives the following long term probabilities: $471,912,420.87$265,161,35654.20%0.87% (Average Annuity, M)$411,000,727.93$230,935,88158.22%1.60% $315 $357,210,562.93$200,711,89762.02%2.75% $262 $309,709,308.07$174,021,5706
Apr 19, 2006, 8:15 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Another lotto didn't buy happiness story
This is a story I found in the online version of the Tampa Tribune. A sob story abuot how lotto millions supposedly recked their lives. However it says right in the story they spent it on kids, family, and travel there is no mention of them Investing any money. Also they sold their annuity to pay debts so they probably lost alot of money there as well. Thank goodness I read lottery post. LOL I've learned a few things. First, If you're lucky enough to win before you buy a new car or new hou
Apr 13, 2006, 10:48 pm - petergrfn - Lottery Discussion Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions has rolled over. The cash value is $56.3M, the annuity value is $96. The cash value is now higher than Powerball's. The previous jackpot reached a cash value of $48.3M As before, the lottery continues to rise as if it had skipped a drawing. The jackpot/sales were more consistent with a 8th drawing than a 7th drawing. I will therefore treat this upcoming drawing as a 9th drawing statistically rather than as if it were a 8th - an ad hoc approach. Seventh draws have av
Mar 25, 2006, 4:37 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions has rolled over. The cash value is $48.2M, the annuity value is $84. The cash value is now higher than Powerball's As before, the lottery continues to rise as if it had skipped a drawing. The jackpot/sales were more consistent with a 7th drawing than a sixth drawing. I will therefore treat this upcoming drawing as a 8th drawing statistically rather than as if it were a 6th - an ad hoc approach. Seventh draws have average sales of $22.3M If this is the amount of ticke
Mar 22, 2006, 6:29 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions has rolled over. The cash value is $40.0M, the annuity value is $68. As before, the lottery continues to rise as if it had skipped a drawing. The jackpot/sales were more consistent with a sixth drawing than a fifth drawing. I will therefore treat this upcoming drawing as a 7th drawing statistically rather than as if it were a 6th - an ad hoc approach. Seventh draws have average sales of $21.1M If this is the amount of tickets sold, the distribution probability of win
Mar 18, 2006, 4:20 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The Megamillions has rolled over. The cash value is $32.8M, the annuity value is $56. For whatever reason, the jackpot is rising faster than it does on average, and at this point it is probably wiser to treat the jackpot as if it were a sixth draw coming up rather than a fifth. I will do this as a temporary measure and see what develops. Sixth draws have average sales of $19.4M. If this is the amount of tickets sold, the distribution probability of winners is given here: 089.55%
Mar 15, 2006, 7:07 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
The MM has rolled over. The cash value is now $71.5M and the annuity value is $120M. A running average of 11th draw sales (2 data points) since the matrix change suggests that the sales will be around $31.0M. If this many tickets are ultimately sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table: 083.83% 114.79% 21.30% 30.08% The mathematical model for predicting jackpots was off by 4.4% on the cash value when compared with the advertised jac
Feb 11, 2006, 8:09 am - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Reply
MM went for 40 draws under the $5.00 ticket to produce a jackpot of $485.2 cash/$980 annuity. If you can do math, that's 5 months. The pretax expectation value was 0.49 using a Poisson distribution for probable prizes. At that time there was a 8.15% probability of one winner, 0.36% for two winners, and a 0.01% chance of three winners. Perhaps you're expecting rollovers for a year in predicting an expectation value greater than or equal to 1.0. It's not likely
Jun 23, 2026, 6:43 pm - Prob988 - Lottery Discussion Forum

Secrets of a lottery lawyer-Kurt Panouses interviewReply
Watch the video. Pretty simple to understand. Reading is fundamental. 1. A state only allowed anonymous claiming for $10 million plus wins and the jp was under that amount. 2. A young guy in his 20s decided to take the yearly annuity of 350k. 3. The attorney argued that based on the expected lifespan of this young person, the total annuities would easily exceed $10 million over his expected lifespan. THUS HE WAS ALLOWED TO CLAIM ANONYMOUSLY. A very creative legal argument that worke
May 3, 2026, 7:15 pm - Artist77 - Lottery Discussion Forum