Alright, here we go.
Throughout this topic odds have made an appearance and have been used to explain the occurrences of the various multiplier selections.
The Megaplier does have problems, but it seems to benefit the player more than the Power Play multiplier does.
For now we'll focus on the Power Play multiplier.
There are 3 different odds to work with: Stated, Calculated and Estimated.
The Stated and Calculated should always be in exact agreement with each other.
The Estimated odds should be very close to the Stated and Calculated odds.
If we state the odds of something is 1 in 50 and a 100 selections later we estimate the odds to be 1 in 3, something is wrong.
Overall, all 3 of these odds need to be in general agreement of each other.
The Stated odds for the Power Play are fixed by the lottery and they are:
| Power Play |
Odds |
| 2 |
1 in 2 |
| 3 |
1 in 3.33 |
| 4 |
1 in 10 |
| 5 |
1 in 10 |
LottoMetro has given us some virtual bias values for a possible explanation of the high number of x2 selections, with the Power Play in ascending order:
| Power Play |
Number of Virtual "Power Play" Balls |
| 2 |
5 |
| 3 |
3 |
| 4 |
1 |
| 5 |
1 |
From these values we can Calculate the odds of each Power Play.
A = 5, B = 3, C = 1, D = 1
| Power Play |
Calculated Odds |
Stated Odds |
| 2 |
1 in (B + C + D) / A |
1 in 2 |
| 3 |
1 in (A + C + D) / B |
1 in 3.33 |
| 4 |
1 in (A + B + D) / C |
1 in 10 |
| 5 |
1 in (A + B + C) / D |
1 in 10 |
Substitute the values it becomes:
| Power Play |
Calculated Odds |
Stated Odds |
| 2 |
1 in (3 + 1 + 1) / 5 |
1 in 2 |
| 3 |
1 in (5 + 1 + 1) / 3 |
1 in 3.33 |
| 4 |
1 in (5 + 3 + 1) / 1 |
1 in 10 |
| 5 |
1 in (5 + 3 + 1) / 1 |
1 in 10 |
This becomes:
| Power Play |
Calculated Odds |
Stated Odds |
| 2 |
1 in 5 / 5 |
1 in 2 |
| 3 |
1 in 7 / 3 |
1 in 3.33 |
| 4 |
1 in 9 / 1 |
1 in 10 |
| 5 |
1 in 9 / 1 |
1 in 10 |
Finally, make the fractions decimal values.
| Power Play |
Calculated Odds |
Stated Odds |
| 2 |
1 in 1 |
1 in 2 |
| 3 |
1 in 2.33 |
1 in 3.33 |
| 4 |
1 in 9 |
1 in 10 |
| 5 |
1 in 9 |
1 in 10 |
Based on LottoMetro's biased virtual ball counts, there's a problem with the calculated odds matching up with the stated odds.
Both of these Must be exactly equal for each of the Power Play odds.
So, which is correct in values.
Simple, test them using the formula we gave earlier: w·x·y·z - w·x - w·y - w·z - x·y - x·z - y·z - 2·w - 2·x - 2·y - 2·z - 3 .
This formula will always be 0 if the odds have been stated or calculated correct.
We have already done Power Play's stated odds using the formula and it does not become 0.
Let's run LottoMetro's virtual odds.
If w = 1, x = 7 / 3, y = 9, z = 9, then the formula works out to the following:
1 · (7 / 3) · 9 · 9 - 1 · (7 / 3) - 1 · 9 - 1 · 9 - (7 / 3) · 9 - (7 / 3) · 9 - 9 · 9 - 2 · 1 - 2 · (7 / 3) - 2 · 9 - 2 · 9 - 3
189 - (7 / 3) - 9 - 9 - 21 - 21 - 81 - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(560 / 3) - 9 - 9 - 21 - 21 - 81 - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(533 / 3) - 9 - 21 - 21 - 81 - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(506 / 3) - 21 - 21 - 81 - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(443 / 3) - 21 - 81 - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(380 / 3) - 81 - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(137 / 3) - 2 - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
(131 / 3) - (14 / 3) - 18 - 18 - 3
39 - 18 - 18 - 3
21 - 18 - 3
3 - 3
0
Looks like LottoMetro's assertion the virtual biased ball counts are correct, however, the odds do not match the stated odds.
Therein lay the problem, the stated and calculated odds do not match Exactly.
It's our assertion, you will never find any combination of virtual ball counts that can produce the exact same odds as the ones stated by the lottery.
Since we have shown the test for odds correctness works when odds are calculated and stated correctly, it becomes fairly obvious, the stated Power Play odds appear to be bogus.
This is also demonstrated by the Estimated odds.
As of 2014-04-20, the frequency of the Power Play for this run of the game's version is:
| Power Play |
Frequency |
| 2 |
16 |
| 3 |
5 |
| 4 |
2 |
| 5 |
3 |
The estimated odds based on this frequency and compared to the stated odds is:
| Power Play |
Frequency |
Estimated Odds |
Stated Odds |
| 2 |
16 |
1 in 0.63 |
1 in 2.00 |
| 3 |
5 |
1 in 4.20 |
1 in 3.33 |
| 4 |
2 |
1 in 12.00 |
1 in 10.00 |
| 5 |
3 |
1 in 7.67 |
1 in 10.00 |
The odds are fairly close except Power Play 2 appears stick out as being bogus.
When we look and compare LottoMetro's virtual odds to the sampled estimated odds we can see they are a much better fit:
| Power Play |
Frequency |
Estimated Odds |
LottoMetro's Odds |
| 2 |
16 |
1 in 0.63 |
1 in 1 |
| 3 |
5 |
1 in 4.20 |
1 in 2.33 |
| 4 |
2 |
1 in 12.00 |
1 in 9 |
| 5 |
3 |
1 in 7.67 |
1 in 9 |
The x2 value is much closer to 1 in 1 than 1 in 2.
So, this boils down to a simple assertion.
The stated odds are most likely Not Correct.
With more drawings, we can see how the Estimated odds fair against both the Stated and LottoMetro's odds.
We'll monitor this for a bit and may post a reply or two as there are more drawings to estimate odds.
For now, you can debate this among yourselves.
We've said all we have to up to this point.