Ultra-34 P-3-P-4 softwarePrev Topic Next Topic

RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 24, 2019, 6:28 pm

Quote: Originally posted by a562soldier on Oct 24, 2019
To see true test results, you need to take all games that have played for that specific lottery game since the game's inception.

\

Most of the databases I keep only go back to around 3,000 games. I do test both short term

and long and if the two agree then I consider the data valid. Once it's been confirmed then it's

no longer necessary to run the larger file.

RL

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 24, 2019, 6:58 pm

Here are the CA results for 2996 games, there are roughly 4 x the lines as used in the 730 game

test. Most databases I have tested run around 15 straights per year on average but some show

a much higher average. I don't know the CA payouts but here in MO a straight pays $600 and

600*54=$32,400.00 The total cost of play in the test below is $41,279. As it is now it's not

making a profit but I am sure I can increase the hits and lower the number of lines generated.

RL

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 24, 2019, 8:33 pm

This is a little off topic but maybe it will help a few people to think about what some are posting.

I have been following another topic here at LP and build a tool to back-test that system over

what would be one year of play. The picture below shows the results of a sort of a side by side

comparison of that method vs the Mini-3. Remember the mini-3 in it's current state is in the red

ie, not profitable.

The Back-test tool was coded to match exactly one of the most used methods described in the other

topic. The total lines for one years play came to 112,240 vs the 10,060 generated by mini-3 with

only an increase of 13 straights. The average number of lines generated by mini-3 using the same

data set to trap a straight is 591.7. My math says the other system would need to produce 189

straights to achieve the same hit rate given the total number of lines in play.

According to the test, the average lines to trap a straight using that method is 112240/30=3,741.3

which is 3.7 times greater than the expected average.

I hate to dump on anyone here trying to help others but it seems my advice was ignored concerning

the data produced testing that method. Here is what I think is misleading about that post. In many

of the post where a hit is proclaimed, it may be up to 10 draws later.

Think of it this way, Lets say that we start with Sunday and use the mid-eve sets to make the calculations.

The method averages around 15 to 20 lines but lets go with 15 to be generous. The first day we start with

15 sets which would be played for the next 10 games. It would cost $150 to cover. In my back-test of the

method I limited it to the next 4 games so $60 to cover. This is still in the realm of possibility but here is where

it breaks down. Next we move to Monday's mid-eve draws and play another set of 15-lines for 4 following

games. Since we are playing the next 4 games for each calculation of sets here is what we end up with.

day-1+4 = 15+15+15+15

day-2+4 15+15+15+15

day-3+4 15+15+15+15

day-4+4 15+15+15+15

day-5+4 15+15+15+15

You can see by day 4 we need to play 60 lines every day from that point onward. Remember I am only using

the next 4 games where the post boost hits up to 10 games later which would cost 10*150 to cover or 1500

total lines in play. The method does get a lot of hits looking at up to the following 10 games but when we have

1500 lines in play to choose from, well, hmmmm, I can hit a straight + 2 or 5 box sets every game playing only

1000 lines. By using the following 10 draws to look for a hit the method should produce several box hits and at

least one straight given the number of lines to choose to look for hits.

I added a option to my main pick-3 program so that I could test that method every day. Here is what

I found over the limited time I have been running the test in forward play. So far it has hit 3 box hits and the total

lines generated or in play so to say, is 500. The odds for a 6-way box are 1 in 167 and if we divide 500/3 we get

166.6 which matches the expected. If we look at the totals shown in the pic above we see 138 box hits in 112240

lines so it averages 1 in 112240/138=813.3, overall vs picking at random is 1 in 167 for a 6-way, 1 in 333 for a

3-way and 1 in 1000 for a straight.

RL

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 24, 2019, 9:22 pm

Here is a pic showing a slightly modified version of the S2S program that reduces the overall lines

generated. Calculations based on $1.00 Straight or $1.00 box bet. Box 3-way/6-way are not

tracked so the mid point between the 2 payouts of $150 is used.

Box = 28060/138=1 in 203.3. 138 * $150=$20,700 and $20,700-28060= -7,360

St8 = 28060/ 30=1 in 935.3. 30 * $600=$18,000 for $18,000-28060= -10,060

The overall odds improve but not enough to earn a profit.

RL

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 25, 2019, 2:36 am

Quote: Originally posted by notmyday on Oct 23, 2019
We wish you the best sir. how is the ROI on the p4 games? At $20 a day you only need 2 hits in a year to make money. So anything more would be the bomb.

Just to see what the P-4 version would do using the same exact code that's in Mini-3

here are the results. Top pic is just the program with a set of bogus digits, second pic

is the back-test run for the last year of drawings. Seems to average around 3 hits per

year when tested using 3000 drawings. It averages 13 lines per run but 3*$6000 is

$18,000-9308=$8,692 profits. Box hits are not worth mentioning but , I am using the

code for pick-3.

RL

Results page

[5522] 8904 9046 0464 4648 6486 4865 8657 6570 5700 7005 0052 0520 5207
[Box=] [ST8=4648 ]
[0553] 8917 9175 1754 7549 5492 4927 9270 2707 7077 0778 7784 7848 8486
[Box=] [ST8=9175 ]
[3922] 6324 3245 2452 4525 5259 2590 5902 9023 0234 2349 3495 4958 9587
[Box=2545 ] [ST8=]
[8712] 1404 4048 0487 4876 8768 7683 6839 8399 3990 9909 9099 0998 9985
[Box=] [ST8=4048 ]
[2799] 4513 5136 1360 3602 6022 0224 2243 2439 4392 3925 9256 2567 5675
[Box=5361 ] [ST8=]
[0385] 6208 2084 0842 8420 4203 2037 0378 3783 7839 8390 3900 9008 0085
[Box=7389 ] [ST8=]
[4962] 8001 0016 0160 1605 6056 0569 5692 6928 9287 2875 8757 7574
[Box=6010 6010 ] [ST8=]
[4543] 7325 3259 2593 5936 9360 3604 6046 0465 4650 6500 5003
[Box=0346 ] [ST8=]
[1022] 1648 6480 4805 8053 0534 5340 3409 4095 0953 9536 5362 3627 6277
[Box=6408 ] [ST8=]
[6165] 9941 9415 4153 1535 5354 3548 5489 4890 8903 9032 0324 3243 2434
[Box=2304 ] [ST8=]
[3967] 6397 3970 9709 7091 0918 9185 1854 8548 5482 4824 8242 2427 4276
[Box=3697 ] [ST8=]
[8008] 1291 2913 9135 1351 3514 5143 1438 4387 3870 8705 7051 0513 5138
[Box=1570 ] [ST8=]
[2905] 4684 6845 8453 4535 5353 3537 5376 3764 7642 6421 4216 2161
[Box=3576 ] [ST8=]
[2364] 3812 8121 1213 2131 1313 3137 1370 3700 7000 0003 0036 0367 3678
[Box=1182 ] [ST8=]
[0709] 1143 1433 4331 3316 3168 1689 6895 8956 9565 5656 6567 5677 6772
[Box=4131 ] [ST8=]
[9934] 1601 6019 0193 1933 9337 3371 3715 7152 1529 5296 2968 9680 6808
[Box=2569 ] [ST8=]

-----------------------------------------------------------
Date->10-25-2019 Time->01:38:17
D:\QB64\ULTRA-34\GAMES\P4C.TXT
Number of draws tested 730
Box hits-> 14
St8 hits-> 3
Total plays-> 9308

....
notmyday

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Oct 25, 2019, 6:54 am

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Oct 25, 2019
Just to see what the P-4 version would do using the same exact code that's in Mini-3

here are the results. Top pic is just the program with a set of bogus digits, second pic

is the back-test run for the last year of drawings. Seems to average around 3 hits per

year when tested using 3000 drawings. It averages 13 lines per run but 3*$6000 is

$18,000-9308=$8,692 profits. Box hits are not worth mentioning but , I am using the

code for pick-3.

RL

Results page

[5522] 8904 9046 0464 4648 6486 4865 8657 6570 5700 7005 0052 0520 5207
[Box=] [ST8=4648 ]
[0553] 8917 9175 1754 7549 5492 4927 9270 2707 7077 0778 7784 7848 8486
[Box=] [ST8=9175 ]
[3922] 6324 3245 2452 4525 5259 2590 5902 9023 0234 2349 3495 4958 9587
[Box=2545 ] [ST8=]
[8712] 1404 4048 0487 4876 8768 7683 6839 8399 3990 9909 9099 0998 9985
[Box=] [ST8=4048 ]
[2799] 4513 5136 1360 3602 6022 0224 2243 2439 4392 3925 9256 2567 5675
[Box=5361 ] [ST8=]
[0385] 6208 2084 0842 8420 4203 2037 0378 3783 7839 8390 3900 9008 0085
[Box=7389 ] [ST8=]
[4962] 8001 0016 0160 1605 6056 0569 5692 6928 9287 2875 8757 7574
[Box=6010 6010 ] [ST8=]
[4543] 7325 3259 2593 5936 9360 3604 6046 0465 4650 6500 5003
[Box=0346 ] [ST8=]
[1022] 1648 6480 4805 8053 0534 5340 3409 4095 0953 9536 5362 3627 6277
[Box=6408 ] [ST8=]
[6165] 9941 9415 4153 1535 5354 3548 5489 4890 8903 9032 0324 3243 2434
[Box=2304 ] [ST8=]
[3967] 6397 3970 9709 7091 0918 9185 1854 8548 5482 4824 8242 2427 4276
[Box=3697 ] [ST8=]
[8008] 1291 2913 9135 1351 3514 5143 1438 4387 3870 8705 7051 0513 5138
[Box=1570 ] [ST8=]
[2905] 4684 6845 8453 4535 5353 3537 5376 3764 7642 6421 4216 2161
[Box=3576 ] [ST8=]
[2364] 3812 8121 1213 2131 1313 3137 1370 3700 7000 0003 0036 0367 3678
[Box=1182 ] [ST8=]
[0709] 1143 1433 4331 3316 3168 1689 6895 8956 9565 5656 6567 5677 6772
[Box=4131 ] [ST8=]
[9934] 1601 6019 0193 1933 9337 3371 3715 7152 1529 5296 2968 9680 6808
[Box=2569 ] [ST8=]

-----------------------------------------------------------
Date->10-25-2019 Time->01:38:17
D:\QB64\ULTRA-34\GAMES\P4C.TXT
Number of draws tested 730
Box hits-> 14
St8 hits-> 3
Total plays-> 9308

Now that looks very promising to me. Seems to me in the ultra-34 it is easier to use the p4 than the p3 not sure why. I havent bought a lottery ticket in a few months. I wanted to burn how i do my settings in my little brain so i could have a good grasp on my decisions. Yes it has cost me a couple str8 hits. I do real good with the steps and miss 1 on the rogue or miss 1 or 2 on the H/L.
RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 25, 2019, 8:48 pm

Personally, I would need to see many more straights before I would attempt to play it.

Three hits a year, even though it would earn a profit would mean there could be long

periods time between hits. Th average now would be 1 every 4 months. It would be

very discouraging and hard to keep playing after so many failed attempts. I would need

the hits to average 20 or more before jumping in.

RL

....
Gwoof

Horwood NL
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Oct 27, 2019, 11:27 am

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Oct 25, 2019
Personally, I would need to see many more straights before I would attempt to play it.

Three hits a year, even though it would earn a profit would mean there could be long

periods time between hits. Th average now would be 1 every 4 months. It would be

very discouraging and hard to keep playing after so many failed attempts. I would need

the hits to average 20 or more before jumping in.

RL

The program looks interesting.

Here, we have only Pick 4 to play so any P 4 program would be a help in narrowing down the picks to play.

GW
RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 27, 2019, 9:33 pm

GW

I am working on two new programs which will include P-4 versions. Both are prediction

type tools and I may add them as options to the ultra-34 program. It's likely that both

will need some additional filtering but not much. The Mini programs have been shelved

for now but the plan is to finish them at a later time.

RL

....
RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 27, 2019, 9:51 pm

Quote: Originally posted by notmyday on Oct 25, 2019
Now that looks very promising to me. Seems to me in the ultra-34 it is easier to use the p4 than the p3 not sure why. I havent bought a lottery ticket in a few months. I wanted to burn how i do my settings in my little brain so i could have a good grasp on my decisions. Yes it has cost me a couple str8 hits. I do real good with the steps and miss 1 on the rogue or miss 1 or 2 on the H/L.

Have you tried the new rogue-pair option? I have switched to using it to select a pair of rogues

then use it to filter my SC-step lines. So far the results are working for me. I would say that I

manage 3 or 4 out of every 5 attempts. This works because I normally only need a to set a

couple to reduce the lines. I skip the ones that look hard to pin down and use the R-click run

from file option after each selection. This tells me just where I am at concerning reduction so

that I don't take unnecessary risk.

RL

Remember you have to click the [<-back] button to exit the rogue pairs analysis tool.

....
CARBOB

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Oct 28, 2019, 8:46 am

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Oct 27, 2019
Have you tried the new rogue-pair option? I have switched to using it to select a pair of rogues

then use it to filter my SC-step lines. So far the results are working for me. I would say that I

manage 3 or 4 out of every 5 attempts. This works because I normally only need a to set a

couple to reduce the lines. I skip the ones that look hard to pin down and use the R-click run

from file option after each selection. This tells me just where I am at concerning reduction so

that I don't take unnecessary risk.

RL

Remember you have to click the [<-back] button to exit the rogue pairs analysis tool.

I am confused about using this method. Do you have a video showing this method?
phileight

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Oct 28, 2019, 9:42 am

Carbob this was in one of the video's. basically everything you need to know, to use it, is in the picture. essentially a 50/50 choice.

my best guess for today:

28 oct
eve mid
8228 9508
8484 9636
9252 9637
9508 9638
Gwoof

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Oct 28, 2019, 1:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Oct 27, 2019
GW

I am working on two new programs which will include P-4 versions. Both are prediction

type tools and I may add them as options to the ultra-34 program. It's likely that both

will need some additional filtering but not much. The Mini programs have been shelved

for now but the plan is to finish them at a later time.

RL

Thanks RL

Looking forward to them.

Question: Did you or Winsum ever make a program that analyses all of the the Same/Change in the Ultra 34 program for the P3 or P4 for each digit?

eg: how often, followed by or with (C or S)

This info. would be helpful in setting the STEPS.

The Data chart in STEPS is a great help.

Thanks

GW

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Oct 28, 2019, 2:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by phileight on Oct 28, 2019

Carbob this was in one of the video's. basically everything you need to know, to use it, is in the picture. essentially a 50/50 choice.

my best guess for today:

28 oct
eve mid
8228 9508
8484 9636
9252 9637
9508 9638

Thanks for the post. What confuses me is the ability to us double rogues, examples

R1-R2

R1-R2	PKG	HITS	MED	MAX	DUE	AVG	SKIPS
00	64	466	11	91	1	15.82	14
01	64	427	13	78	1	17.27	24
02	64	455	11	62	1	16.21	19
03	64	458	12	66	0	16.10	8
10	64	481	11	73	0	15.33	3
11	64	523	10	90	0	14.10	4
12	64	473	11	71	1	15.59	13
13	64	461	13	90	2	16.00	28
20	64	500	9	44	1	14.75	20
21	64	471	11	63	1	15.66	10
22	64	437	12	177	4	16.87	75
23	64	448	14	89	1	16.46	11
30	64	480	9	53	0	15.36	1
31	64	463	12	87	2	15.93	29
32	64	471	11	89	0	15.66	0
33	40	265	20	105	0	27.83	6

RL-RANDOMLOGIC

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Oct 28, 2019, 4:23 pm

Carbob

The tool splits the rogue digits 0123 into two pairs, 01 and 23. These two choices are then

assigned a value 0=01 and 1=23. Whenever you press the Set-0 or Set-1 button the tool

will add the rogue digit pair to the cell. Once you make your selection you must press the

back button to transfer control back to the main program. Hope this helps.

RL

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