bliss United States
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July 31, 2016
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I wrestled with the numbers for tonight, gave up, took a brief nap, wrestled with tonight's numbers some more, gave up, ran the lookahead workups for tomorrow, wrestled with tomorrow's numbers, gave up, came back an hour later, immediately stumbled on a number I actually like for tonight, plugged that into the lookahead workup and got a great workup. Whew!
Parlay Play of the Knight
If 966 falls straight tonight, parlay on 382 straight in the Day draw tomorrow.
bliss United States
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July 31, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by parlayman on May 9, 2025
I wrestled with the numbers for tonight, gave up, took a brief nap, wrestled with tonight's numbers some more, gave up, ran the lookahead workups for tomorrow, wrestled with tomorrow's numbers, gave up, came back an hour later, immediately stumbled on a number I actually like for tonight, plugged that into the lookahead workup and got a great workup. Whew!
Parlay Play of the Knight
If 966 falls straight tonight, parlay on 382 straight in the Day draw tomorrow.
I'm bringing this parlay play forward to Saturday.
Parlay Play of the Day If 966 falls straight in the Day draw, parlay on 382 straight in the Night draw.
bliss United States
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Here is the chart that shows why I'm trying to catch 382 in the Night draw. I like the fact that the leader number, 966, at least appears straight in the workup.
Prince George United States
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February 8, 2018
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Good morning and Thank you parlayman! Definitely locking in all trips this week. I also noticed that every day draw for 2023 one of the digits fell in the 2025 day draw. 5,8,or 9 ball for today's draw? Im favoring the 5.
bliss United States
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Quote: Originally posted by Paniro284 on May 10, 2025
Good morning and Thank you parlayman! Definitely locking in all trips this week. I also noticed that every day draw for 2023 one of the digits fell in the 2025 day draw. 5,8,or 9 ball for today's draw? Im favoring the 5.
Paniro284 wrote: I also noticed that every day draw for 2023 one of the digits fell in the 2025 day draw.
Dang! We have a much needed Eagle-Eye Fleagle in the house. Thanks for pointing it out. This is why I like to post charts. I love it when somebody pops up and points out something that I never would have noticed. I tend to get in a rut and just follow the same track until I win or find some other new track to follow.
bliss United States
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If a trip falls on the 15th, it will tie the record for the greatest gap between trips in Virginia. After that... we sail into waters that I can only chart with statistics. I have a simple metric that I use to sort of judge whether something is really unusual or if I am just getting impatient or what. I use the 1 in 1000 odds of hitting a straight to calibrate my expectations. We all have a feel for what 1 in 1000 odds look like and feel like because we live it. To a maths person, it means we have a 50/50 chance of hitting a straight every 1000 numbers we play straight. 1000 plays playing once every draw, two draws a day, is about 16 1/2 months of draws. We all sort of have an feel for what that looks and feels like. What I do is compute when the odds of something NOT happening are equal to those 1 in 1000 odds.
In the case of trips, I computed how many days it would take of playing all ten trips, both draws, every day to EQUAL the 1 in 1000 odds of hitting a straight. It turns out the answer is 687 draws / 2 draws per day = 343.5 days. The last time a trip fell was August 25th 2024. August 25 2024 + 343 days would be August 4 2025. There's nothing magical about this, I'm just comparing events with similar probabilities, in this case 1 in 1000. When you look at it that way, it's easy to see that where we are now with the trips, is not that improbable. It's uncomfortable, but not statistically unusual at all.
BUT... If we were to sail past August 4 2025 without hitting a trip, then the statistics start to get uncomfortable fairly quickly. Then we start to get into the same odds of hitting a straight in the Pick 4, 1 in 10,000. Just for fun, I did the math for that case, too. From above we saw that it took 343.5 days to get to 1 in 1000 odds, but it takes only 114 1/2 more days to get to 1 in 10,000. The reason things go sideways so quickly is that the math for computing the odds involves an exponent. Exponents always go up/down quickly once you get away from the inflection point, the point where the curve suddenly bends up/down. In our case we are past that point and moving towards where the math gets very nonlinear, but we aren't there quite yet. If we get to June 24 2026 without hitting a trip then we'll be into the same ballpark as the odds of hitting a Pick 4 number straight. At that point, the lottery would be getting so much heat that they would bring in folks to audit the equipment and processes and so on. But statistically, it wouldn't be all that unusual. After all, people beat those 1 in 10,000 odds and hit the Pick 4 straight every day of the week, right?
It's all just the stats of random numbers in a game (in the case of Pick 3 games) where we are fighting 1 in 1000 odds. In the case of trips in Pick 3, we are fighting 1 in 100 odds which is easy peasy... until you lose so much money that even a win won't cover your losses. That takes, what? 25 whole day of playing all trips for a buck every draw? Ouch!
Stats are heck. They are...
TL;DR
P.S. This is why I look for clusters of trips. Wait for one to hit, then play the next draw and both draws on the second day after the first hit.
bliss United States
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July 31, 2016
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EDIT:
TL;DR
P.S. This is why I look for clusters of trips. Wait for one to hit, then play the next draw and both draws on the second day after the first hit, then STOP.
bliss United States
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July 31, 2016
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Quote: Originally posted by parlayman on May 10, 2025
Here is the chart that shows why I'm trying to catch 382 in the Night draw. I like the fact that the leader number, 966, at least appears straight in the workup.
