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Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Prev TopicNext Topic
Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?
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The One Over None
I Know... -
I am not convinced you would make that next jump from $688 to $816. I could see going to $750 - $$760.
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· · · Average Jackpot $2.00 Data With · · Current Jackpot Based on $2.00 $30,000,000 Index Date at $5.00 a Line a Line Data Inflation 2933 2025-07-01 $50,000,000 $20,000,000 $50,000,000 2934 2025-07-04 $60,000,000 $29,000,000 $59,000,000 2935 2025-07-08 $70,000,000 $41,000,000 $71,000,000 2936 2025-07-11 $80,000,000 $56,000,000 $86,000,000 2937 2025-07-15 $90,000,000 $73,000,000 $103,000,000 2938 2025-07-18 $100,000,000 $90,000,000 $120,000,000 2939 2025-07-22 $110,000,000 $108,000,000 $138,000,000 2940 2025-07-25 $120,000,000 $127,000,000 $157,000,000 2941 2025-07-29 $130,000,000 $146,000,000 $176,000,000 2942 2025-08-01 $140,000,000 $167,000,000 $197,000,000 2943 2025-08-05 $150,000,000 $190,000,000 $220,000,000 2944 2025-08-08 $166,000,000 $212,000,000 $242,000,000 2945 2025-08-12 $182,000,000 $235,000,000 $265,000,000 2946 2025-08-15 $198,000,000 $262,000,000 $292,000,000 2947 2025-08-19 $216,000,000 $289,000,000 $319,000,000 2948 2025-08-22 $234,000,000 $311,000,000 $341,000,000 2949 2025-08-26 $253,000,000 $341,000,000 $371,000,000 2950 2025-08-29 $277,000,000 $370,000,000 $400,000,000 2951 2025-09-02 $302,000,000 $401,000,000 $431,000,000 2952 2025-09-05 $336,000,000 $438,000,000 $468,000,000 2953 2025-09-09 $358,000,000 $458,000,000 $488,000,000 2954 2025-09-12 $381,000,000 $500,000,000 $530,000,000 2955 2025-09-16 $400,000,000 $547,000,000 $577,000,000 2956 2025-09-19 $423,000,000 $601,000,000 $631,000,000 2957 2025-09-23 $451,000,000 $688,000,000 $718,000,000 2958 2025-09-26 $472,500,000 $816,000,000 $846,000,000 The One Over None
I Know... -
Likely, MM was hoping for the Average Jackpot Based on the $2.00 a Line Data with the $30,000,000 Inflation.
Players Just handing over cash like Business as Usual and there the Faster Growing Jackpot, but that was not to be.
The One Over None
I Know... -
Jade, the following is what I found for previous runs over the last 5 years on the $2 spectrum
While the jumps during the Covid years made excellent leaps and bounds, the last last few years have made the traditional gains at the $750M mark. You can see over the last 5 draws that no jump went from the $680's to over $800M
9/13 - 12/27/24: $619M - $695M(projected for $670M) - $760M(projected for $740M) - $862M(projected for $825M) - $1B
6/07 - 9/10/24: $627M - $680M - $740M - $800M
12/12/23 - 3/26/24: $607M - $650M - $687M - 735M - $815M(projected at $792M) - $893M(projected for $875M)
4/21 - 8/08/23: $640M - $720M - $820M -$940M(Projected for $910M) - $1.1B
10/18/22 - 1/13/23: $565M - $685M(projected for $640M) - $785M - $940M - $1.1B
4/19 - 7/29/22: $555M(projected at $530M) - $660M(projected at $630M) - $830M(projected at $790M) - $1.28B(projected at $1.02B)
9/18/21 - 1/22/22: $625M(projected for $600M) - $750M - $865M(project for $850M) - $1B(projected for $970M)
* source https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html
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Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Sep 22, 2025
Jade, the following is what I found for previous runs over the last 5 years on the $2 spectrum
While the jumps during the Covid years made excellent leaps and bounds, the last last few years have made the traditional gains at the $750M mark. You can see over the last 5 draws that no jump went from the $680's to over $800M
9/13 - 12/27/24: $619M - $695M(projected for $670M) - $760M(projected for $740M) - $862M(projected for $825M) - $1B
6/07 - 9/10/24: $627M - $680M - $740M - $800M
12/12/23 - 3/26/24: $607M - $650M - $687M - 735M - $815M(projected at $792M) - $893M(projected for $875M)
4/21 - 8/08/23: $640M - $720M - $820M -$940M(Projected for $910M) - $1.1B
10/18/22 - 1/13/23: $565M - $685M(projected for $640M) - $785M - $940M - $1.1B
4/19 - 7/29/22: $555M(projected at $530M) - $660M(projected at $630M) - $830M(projected at $790M) - $1.28B(projected at $1.02B)
9/18/21 - 1/22/22: $625M(projected for $600M) - $750M - $865M(project for $850M) - $1B(projected for $970M)
* source https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html
That's great!!
Now, translate those data values from the $2.00 a Line game to a $5.00 a Line game.
In a basic general method, that's what we did with the Average Jackpot $2.00 a Line Data.
The One Over None
I Know... -
We may have been too low on our estimates.
We forgot to do the $2.00/$3.00 (80%/20%) Cash translation.
MM had full $2.00 jackpot runs from 2018-01-09 to 2025-03-35.
Also, MM switched from $40,000,000 starting jackpot to $20,000,000 on 2020-06-12.
We'll have to incorporate these in to the translation.
The Average Jackpot $2.00 a Line Data is straight $2.00 a Line.
We'll post the updated $2.00/$3.00 to $5.00 a Line later.
My bad...
But, not good for the translation to $5.00 a Line.
The One Over None
I Know... -
Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Sep 22, 2025
That's great!!
Now, translate those data values from the $2.00 a Line game to a $5.00 a Line game.
In a basic general method, that's what we did with the Average Jackpot $2.00 a Line Data.
Sorry my friend....Coming up with a reasonable projection for the $5 cost value will be a wild guess(at best) if and when the traditional frenzy would start. There has been no run to reach the $1B mark for a gauge. Past practice has shown, in my opinion, that the frenzy starts roughly around the $735- $750M point($2 ticket). If this jackpot gets up to that point ? I think the advertised annuity jackpot is going to have to be another $75 million higher, somewhere around $815 - $840 range for the "no voters-me included"(this poll) to express the " Oh what ta heck, lemme throw a $5 at it". I could be way off in Na-Na land on that. Right now, I cant even make a reasonable guess at how many more draws it's going to take the Measly Millions to get to $650M point.
Current Run 24 draws = $451M @$5
9/23 - 12/27/24 24 draws = $627M @$2
6/07 - 9/24/24 24 draws = $627M @$2
12/12/23 - 3/26/24 24 draws = $650M @$2
4/21/23 - 8/08/23 24 draws = $560M @$2 * PB Run 4/22 - 7/19/23 24 draws = $366M Jackpot won on 7/19 at $1Billion
10/18/22 - 1/13/23 24 draws = $1.1 Billion @$2
4/19/22 - 7/29/22 24 draws = $440M @$2 Jackpot run was won on the 29th draw @ $1.28B
9/18/20 - 1/22/21 24 draws = $276M Jackpot of $1 Billion was won @ 36 draws
*Please excuse the post above dated on the run 9/18/21 - 1/22/22, it should have been 9/18/20 - 1/22/21
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Mega Millions From 2018-01-09 To 2025-03-25 · $2/$3 a Line to Run $5.00 Translation 1 $50,000,000 2 $70,000,000 3 $98,000,000 4 $131,000,000 5 $169,000,000 6 $208,000,000 7 $249,000,000 8 $291,000,000 9 $335,000,000 10 $383,000,000 11 $434,000,000 12 $485,000,000 13 $536,000,000 14 $597,000,000 15 $659,000,000 16 $710,000,000 17 $776,000,000 18 $843,000,000 19 $912,000,000 20 $997,000,000 21 $1,043,000,000 22 $1,138,000,000 23 $1,244,000,000 24 $1,367,000,000 25 $1,564,000,000 26 $1,855,000,000 The One Over None
I Know... -
Mega Millions Cash Jackpot Runs 2018-01-09 to Present
From To Jackpot Run 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 2018-01-09 2018-03-30 243 24 24700000 27700000 31000000 33600000 38600000 46600000 53900000 62200000 71800000 80200000 90600000 99800000 109200000 120100000 131400000 144500000 157200000 171000000 189200000 206500000 224500000 252300000 275000000 317200000 2018-04-03 2018-05-04 244 10 24000000 26800000 30000000 32900000 40100000 47100000 56300000 65400000 74300000 84600000 2018-05-08 2018-07-24 245 23 23500000 26600000 29100000 31900000 34900000 43400000 49800000 57900000 65600000 75600000 85400000 96600000 105300000 114900000 127400000 140600000 153800000 171600000 184300000 205500000 226400000 260000000 308100000 2018-07-27 2018-10-23 246 26 23600000 26600000 29500000 32500000 37600000 44800000 52800000 61300000 71100000 80400000 91700000 99700000 110900000 122700000 133900000 148000000 160500000 176100000 197400000 213000000 237100000 265200000 312200000 380000000 565600000 913700000 2018-10-26 2019-01-01 247 20 22800000 25600000 29300000 39400000 50800000 60100000 69500000 80000000 89500000 98800000 109500000 121600000 132900000 145600000 154900000 168900000 184000000 193900000 223200000 254600000 2019-01-04 2019-03-01 248 17 24200000 27100000 30000000 32900000 40500000 49000000 57500000 65200000 75500000 83500000 95400000 104500000 115000000 125200000 135500000 148300000 159000000 2019-03-05 2019-03-12 249 3 23800000 27100000 30200000 2019-03-15 2019-06-07 250 25 24300000 27100000 30900000 35400000 46900000 54000000 63600000 73600000 85100000 95200000 106400000 116400000 129900000 139800000 154300000 168300000 182500000 196200000 210600000 228000000 247600000 264700000 287000000 308200000 345200000 2019-06-11 2019-07-23 251 13 25800000 29200000 32700000 36000000 39400000 46500000 54100000 62500000 69500000 77500000 87900000 99800000 108500000 2019-07-26 2019-09-24 252 18 25900000 29200000 33300000 37300000 41300000 45500000 49700000 56100000 63200000 73700000 80700000 90900000 98700000 107700000 117100000 130400000 145500000 158400000 2019-09-27 2019-12-17 253 24 27800000 31700000 36100000 39000000 41200000 44700000 48400000 55800000 63200000 70600000 81300000 85500000 96200000 108000000 119900000 130200000 142000000 155700000 166500000 182600000 192600000 213100000 230000000 251500000 2019-12-20 2020-02-11 254 16 26700000 30000000 33700000 36600000 40300000 46500000 53700000 61400000 69200000 78600000 89500000 98600000 109600000 117600000 131500000 142200000 2020-02-14 2020-06-09 255 34 28200000 31700000 35900000 39300000 44900000 48600000 56600000 61300000 61700000 71300000 72700000 79200000 85500000 90400000 98200000 101100000 108100000 114700000 129700000 134700000 141400000 150400000 161000000 172100000 183900000 195800000 215300000 216000000 237800000 247400000 264700000 280300000 284200000 316800000 2020-06-12 2020-07-24 256 13 15700000 17000000 20300000 27400000 35000000 42300000 48600000 57600000 67000000 73500000 81200000 91000000 100800000 2020-07-28 2020-07-31 257 2 16200000 17900000 2020-08-04 2020-09-15 258 13 16400000 18000000 19300000 24500000 31800000 39100000 45200000 53200000 61100000 69900000 77200000 85900000 94600000 2020-09-18 2021-01-22 259 37 15800000 17500000 19100000 25500000 32200000 38600000 46400000 53900000 60300000 66600000 74000000 84400000 91000000 98700000 109800000 114800000 126700000 135800000 146100000 154900000 165800000 176100000 184700000 202600000 213100000 223500000 237500000 252800000 269100000 287000000 306100000 339600000 383400000 458800000 554300000 638800000 739600000 2021-01-26 2021-02-16 260 7 14900000 18400000 30900000 39400000 49700000 59200000 68500000 2021-02-19 2021-05-21 261 27 14100000 15400000 20700000 29800000 37400000 46800000 53300000 63000000 69800000 82300000 92600000 101900000 113100000 124400000 136000000 149000000 164200000 175500000 190300000 203700000 217000000 236900000 254400000 272100000 290500000 319400000 348600000 2021-05-25 2021-06-08 262 5 13600000 15000000 23000000 30800000 38700000 2021-06-11 2021-09-21 263 30 13900000 15200000 21200000 27900000 35000000 42800000 50600000 58100000 67000000 74300000 83900000 94100000 100700000 111000000 120100000 131000000 138000000 149100000 161000000 175400000 186500000 195900000 208000000 222500000 232800000 247300000 266400000 278700000 293200000 315000000 2021-09-24 2021-10-22 264 9 14300000 15400000 23900000 31600000 41400000 50700000 58900000 65900000 75200000 2021-10-26 2022-01-28 265 28 14000000 15500000 18400000 25800000 32700000 37900000 44500000 52900000 58600000 67500000 74200000 81900000 89000000 97700000 107000000 116600000 122800000 134100000 145200000 157100000 175600000 191500000 206800000 224200000 236600000 259800000 273600000 289500000 2022-02-01 2022-03-08 266 11 13600000 14900000 20700000 27800000 34900000 42700000 50200000 57700000 69500000 77200000 84500000 2022-03-11 2022-04-12 267 10 13100000 14300000 18800000 24700000 31600000 38400000 44500000 51400000 57900000 64500000 2022-04-15 2022-04-15 268 1 11900000 2022-04-19 2022-04-19 269 1 11700000 2022-04-22 2022-07-29 270 30 11700000 13000000 18600000 25500000 33600000 40000000 49500000 57400000 64100000 76600000 84300000 93100000 98800000 108900000 118800000 128700000 137200000 152800000 161300000 177200000 185600000 207600000 214300000 230900000 253000000 276000000 316900000 388000000 487900000 747200000 2022-08-02 2022-10-14 271 22 11800000 20900000 30300000 37300000 46800000 56000000 65200000 75800000 86400000 93200000 103700000 114300000 123900000 137700000 147500000 159600000 168100000 187000000 198200000 208200000 224000000 247900000 2022-10-18 2023-01-13 272 26 9900000 14300000 21800000 31500000 43200000 57700000 74200000 93900000 103600000 120800000 132100000 147300000 157800000 175800000 189300000 204800000 217800000 231000000 243300000 265000000 289800000 347800000 403800000 486000000 576800000 724600000 2023-01-17 2023-01-17 273 1 10600000 2023-01-20 2023-01-24 274 2 10700000 16300000 2023-01-27 2023-01-31 275 2 10600000 16500000 2023-02-03 2023-04-14 276 21 10700000 16400000 26200000 35100000 42900000 52800000 64500000 73400000 85000000 99200000 106900000 120500000 136800000 143900000 163500000 170100000 188800000 205500000 224200000 237200000 253100000 2023-04-18 2023-04-18 277 1 10500000 2023-04-21 2023-08-08 278 32 10500000 13900000 20200000 27400000 35900000 43700000 52900000 58900000 67900000 76700000 86100000 96300000 106000000 113000000 124000000 134400000 146100000 157200000 168000000 180300000 190700000 206700000 225600000 251000000 287000000 328500000 370500000 418300000 472500000 550200000 659500000 783300000 2023-08-11 2023-08-15 279 2 9700000 17400000 2023-08-18 2023-10-06 280 15 9500000 15600000 25100000 32500000 41300000 48600000 59100000 67700000 77400000 87600000 96100000 106400000 123300000 140300000 156900000 2023-10-10 2023-12-08 281 18 8800000 21600000 30100000 39200000 49600000 59800000 69600000 82300000 87900000 100800000 112000000 121900000 133300000 140800000 154800000 165100000 179600000 189000000 2023-12-12 2024-03-26 282 31 9500000 13900000 20400000 28500000 36400000 46100000 56100000 67800000 80300000 91300000 100100000 111300000 124200000 134700000 149500000 162100000 174600000 187300000 201700000 214200000 232100000 247500000 266100000 288200000 314400000 333400000 354300000 385100000 421400000 467000000 537500000 2024-03-29 2024-06-04 283 20 9500000 20800000 31100000 45100000 57300000 66100000 80400000 91600000 102500000 115500000 130000000 141600000 152200000 167600000 182900000 196400000 209800000 226100000 240800000 264000000 2024-06-07 2024-09-10 284 28 9300000 13900000 22600000 29100000 38300000 46300000 55200000 63000000 75500000 84600000 96000000 106900000 118000000 131100000 144400000 156900000 176000000 185900000 197700000 213900000 228500000 247500000 265600000 286900000 309400000 337100000 371600000 404200000 2024-09-13 2024-12-27 285 31 10100000 15800000 23500000 30800000 38500000 46400000 52200000 61500000 71000000 80700000 88000000 96100000 107500000 115500000 131500000 141300000 156500000 169200000 176700000 194300000 208700000 229300000 244700000 258400000 278400000 293600000 322000000 352100000 392100000 448800000 549700000 2024-12-31 2025-01-17 286 6 9000000 18800000 27400000 33700000 41300000 50400000 2025-01-21 2025-03-25 287 19 8900000 12400000 19800000 26600000 34600000 42900000 50000000 59000000 65900000 75400000 84500000 92400000 101900000 108800000 119700000 128400000 140000000 152100000 159100000 2025-03-28 2025-04-18 288 7 9200000 13500000 20500000 25700000 34300000 42200000 49300000 2025-04-22 2025-06-27 289 20 22400000 26900000 31800000 36400000 40800000 45300000 49400000 54800000 62300000 69000000 75700000 82700000 90000000 99400000 108000000 117300000 126100000 136000000 145700000 155500000 2025-07-01 2025-09-23 290 25 22400000 26900000 31300000 35800000 39900000 44300000 48400000 52800000 57500000 62000000 67900000 75200000 82100000 89300000 97000000 105100000 113800000 124600000 136000000 151300000 164500000 175000000 185800000 196500000 208700000 The One Over None
I Know... -
Sooooo fellow posters....Any guesses to the next Measly Millions jackpot posting when it rolls tonight ? (nothing posted on the TX lottery yet for 9/26)
I am going with a $25 Million increase for the annuity. That last increase of $28M was a 4 day accrual. Lets see if that number stays the same/goes higher for a 3 day break. Good luck to all that are participating in tonights draw.
Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
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Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Sep 23, 2025
Sooooo fellow posters....Any guesses to the next Measly Millions jackpot posting when it rolls tonight ? (nothing posted on the TX lottery yet for 9/26)
I am going with a $25 Million increase for the annuity. That last increase of $28M was a 4 day accrual. Lets see if that number stays the same/goes higher for a 3 day break. Good luck to all that are participating in tonights draw.
My guess is 487 for annuity
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Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Sep 23, 2025
Sooooo fellow posters....Any guesses to the next Measly Millions jackpot posting when it rolls tonight ? (nothing posted on the TX lottery yet for 9/26)
I am going with a $25 Million increase for the annuity. That last increase of $28M was a 4 day accrual. Lets see if that number stays the same/goes higher for a 3 day break. Good luck to all that are participating in tonights draw.
Mega Millions Jackpot Est. Date Cash Annuity 2025-09-26 $220,000,000 $491,000,000 The One Over None
I Know... -
Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Sep 22, 2025
Mega Millions From 2018-01-09 To 2025-03-25 · $2/$3 a Line to Run $5.00 Translation 1 $50,000,000 2 $70,000,000 3 $98,000,000 4 $131,000,000 5 $169,000,000 6 $208,000,000 7 $249,000,000 8 $291,000,000 9 $335,000,000 10 $383,000,000 11 $434,000,000 12 $485,000,000 13 $536,000,000 14 $597,000,000 15 $659,000,000 16 $710,000,000 17 $776,000,000 18 $843,000,000 19 $912,000,000 20 $997,000,000 21 $1,043,000,000 22 $1,138,000,000 23 $1,244,000,000 24 $1,367,000,000 25 $1,564,000,000 26 $1,855,000,000 We're doing a rework on this.
We posted the Cash Jackpot Runs for all to download and do their own analysis.
To Be Continued...
The One Over None
I Know... -
We need to set a base line starting cash value to $1,000,000 to eliminate the inflationary offset.
The inflationary offset is not needed since value added to each jackpot run is driven by player activity.
The activity dates for the $2/$3 a Line Data are from 2018-01-09 to 2025-03-25.
From To Jackpot Run 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 2018-01-09 2018-03-30 243 24 1000000 4000000 7300000 9900000 14900000 22900000 30200000 38500000 48100000 56500000 66900000 76100000 85500000 96400000 107700000 120800000 133500000 147300000 165500000 182800000 200800000 228600000 251300000 293500000 2018-04-03 2018-05-04 244 10 1000000 3800000 7000000 9900000 17100000 24100000 33300000 42400000 51300000 61600000 2018-05-08 2018-07-24 245 23 1000000 4100000 6600000 9400000 12400000 20900000 27300000 35400000 43100000 53100000 62900000 74100000 82800000 92400000 104900000 118100000 131300000 149100000 161800000 183000000 203900000 237500000 285600000 2018-07-27 2018-10-23 246 26 1000000 4000000 6900000 9900000 15000000 22200000 30200000 38700000 48500000 57800000 69100000 77100000 88300000 100100000 111300000 125400000 137900000 153500000 174800000 190400000 214500000 242600000 289600000 357400000 543000000 891100000 2018-10-26 2019-01-01 247 20 1000000 3800000 7500000 17600000 29000000 38300000 47700000 58200000 67700000 77000000 87700000 99800000 111100000 123800000 133100000 147100000 162200000 172100000 201400000 232800000 2019-01-04 2019-03-01 248 17 1000000 3900000 6800000 9700000 17300000 25800000 34300000 42000000 52300000 60300000 72200000 81300000 91800000 102000000 112300000 125100000 135800000 2019-03-05 2019-03-12 249 3 1000000 4300000 7400000 2019-03-15 2019-06-07 250 25 1000000 3800000 7600000 12100000 23600000 30700000 40300000 50300000 61800000 71900000 83100000 93100000 106600000 116500000 131000000 145000000 159200000 172900000 187300000 204700000 224300000 241400000 263700000 284900000 321900000 2019-06-11 2019-07-23 251 13 1000000 4400000 7900000 11200000 14600000 21700000 29300000 37700000 44700000 52700000 63100000 75000000 83700000 2019-07-26 2019-09-24 252 18 1000000 4300000 8400000 12400000 16400000 20600000 24800000 31200000 38300000 48800000 55800000 66000000 73800000 82800000 92200000 105500000 120600000 133500000 2019-09-27 2019-12-17 253 24 1000000 4900000 9300000 12200000 14400000 17900000 21600000 29000000 36400000 43800000 54500000 58700000 69400000 81200000 93100000 103400000 115200000 128900000 139700000 155800000 165800000 186300000 203200000 224700000 2019-12-20 2020-02-11 254 16 1000000 4300000 8000000 10900000 14600000 20800000 28000000 35700000 43500000 52900000 63800000 72900000 83900000 91900000 105800000 116500000 2020-02-14 2020-06-09 255 34 1000000 4500000 8700000 12100000 17700000 21400000 29400000 34100000 34500000 44100000 45500000 52000000 58300000 63200000 71000000 73900000 80900000 87500000 102500000 107500000 114200000 123200000 133800000 144900000 156700000 168600000 188100000 188800000 210600000 220200000 237500000 253100000 257000000 289600000 2020-06-12 2020-07-24 256 13 1000000 2300000 5600000 12700000 20300000 27600000 33900000 42900000 52300000 58800000 66500000 76300000 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The One Over None
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