Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Prev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?

No - None

[ 121 ]

[ 56.3% ]

Very Little - One Line

[ 46 ]

[ 21.4% ]

Some - I Cut Back

[ 13 ]

[ 6.1% ]

Yes - Business As Usual

[ 35 ]

[ 16.3% ]

Total valid votes

[ 215 ]

Discarded votes

[ 4 ]

Ranett

United States
Member #201,949
November 3, 2019
6,452 Posts
Offline

Nov 7, 2025, 10:52 am

No prize point here, I'll stick with powerball.
JADELottery

Eagle Sun

IA, MN, WI
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
5,177 Posts
Offline

Nov 7, 2025, 11:50 am

New threshold plateau is Billion Dollar Burnout...

We've seen these plateaus happen before.

We remember way back in the 1900's when the threshold of top dog jackpot was $100 Million.

Then, once that was archived, eh, no big deal... yawn.

Below are graphs of each plateau level since their beginning for both PB and MM.

We can see once PB achieved $100 Million in 1993, its plateau hung around till 1998.

Currently, PB is at the $2 Billion Plateau.

From 1999 to 2011 MM's plateau didn't change much.

Since 2018 the max jackpot hasn't changed and plateaued under the $2 Billion threshold.

Billion Dollar Burnout... it may be the new normal.

Yawn, wake me when we get to $100 Billion.

The One Over None
I Know...
positano

United States
Member #186,034
November 30, 2017
42 Posts
Offline

Nov 7, 2025, 11:51 am

Quote: Originally posted by rundown99 on Nov 7, 2025
Ok. I stand corrected. Thank you for mentioning this. I wonder if more people are waiting for the jackpot to reach $1 Billion especially with the price increase.

I don't play Mega Millions anymore because of the price increase to $5. Honestly, I consistently play Powerball these days, because I fear that Powerball will eventually raise their ticket prices to $5.

Don't think they will any time soon.

For them the 3rd weekly draw has worked well. I bet they will add a 4th weekly draw, before changing the price.
JADELottery

Eagle Sun

IA, MN, WI
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
5,177 Posts
Offline

Nov 7, 2025, 12:08 pm

Woo, longest running MM jackpot so far... 38 Draws.

If you hung in there, Wow...

The various cost in plays...

Draws 38

Lines Cost

1 $190

2 $380

3 $570

4 $760

5 $950

6 $1,140

7 $1,330

8 $1,520

9 $1,710

10 $1,900

You'd likely need to get a x10 all the time to recover your money... good luck with that.

The One Over None
I Know...
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,393 Posts
Online

Nov 7, 2025, 2:00 pm

Didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. No Measly Millions tix purchased. Didn't have a Snickers bar either. But I did get 2 Powerball tickets - 1 from the gas station and 1 from the grocery store

Good Luck if you are playing tonight or tomorrow.

Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,393 Posts
Online

Nov 7, 2025, 3:59 pm

Comin' in Hot !!! Projected jackpot, if there's a rollover(#38) for the M Millions--- $900M/$415.3M CASH VALUE

Up $57 Million

https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/mm20251107.pdf

Good luck if you are a participant tonight.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
5,128 Posts
Offline

Nov 7, 2025, 5:23 pm

"I wonder if more people are waiting for the jackpot to reach $1 Billion especially with the price increase. "

I don't know if people are waiting for an even billion, but they're definitely waiting longer. The increase if nobody wins tonight is from 843 to 900, but it would have been 843 > 894 if the interest rate hadn't gone (back) up a bit. The cash increase is $23.6 million. The last 2 times MM got to 900ish the annuity increases were 815 > 893 (3/19/24) and 760 > 862 and then 862 > 1 billion (12/20 and 12/24/24). The interest rates were roughly the same, so the cash increases then were about $37 million (3/19) and $46, then $62 million (12/20 and 12/24).

"I bet they will add a 4th weekly draw, before changing the price. "

Not until we add more days to the week. Adding a drawing only allows 1 day for ticket sales, and 2 of the possible days are the same day as MM.
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,393 Posts
Online

Nov 8, 2025, 12:18 am

Rollover # 38 has arrived to the Measly Millions Jackpot run. Officially now at $900M/$415.3M Cash Value

https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/mm20251107.pdf

Dilly Dilly
Perfecttiming2

United States
Member #65,959
October 11, 2008
249 Posts
Offline

Nov 8, 2025, 12:36 am

I so agree!

At the $2 rate it would have been over a billion by now....
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,393 Posts
Online

Nov 8, 2025, 12:38 am

Quote: Originally posted by Perfecttiming2 on Nov 8, 2025
I so agree!

At the $2 rate it would have been over a billion by now....

At the $2 rate, I am leaning that this would have been extremely close to $2 Billion.

#1) Powerball: $2.0401 billion, Nov. 7, 2022 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million)
#2) Powerball: $1.7874 billion, Sep. 6, 2025 (41 rollovers, starting at $20 million)
#9) Powerball: $1.3259 billion, Apr. 6, 2024 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million) #12)Powerball: $1.0798 billion, Jul. 19, 2023 (38 rollovers, starting at $20 million)

Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
Perfecttiming2

United States
Member #65,959
October 11, 2008
249 Posts
Offline

Nov 8, 2025, 12:40 am

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Nov 8, 2025
At the $2 rate, I am leaning that this would have been extremely close to $2 Billion.

#1) Powerball: $2.0401 billion, Nov. 7, 2022 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million)
#2) Powerball: $1.7874 billion, Sep. 6, 2025 (41 rollovers, starting at $20 million)
#9) Powerball: $1.3259 billion, Apr. 6, 2024 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million) #12)Powerball: $1.0798 billion, Jul. 19, 2023 (38 rollovers, starting at $20 million)

Which would have been exactly what they wanted right? (They should have left it alone...)
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,393 Posts
Online

Nov 8, 2025, 12:47 am

Quote: Originally posted by Perfecttiming2 on Nov 8, 2025
Which would have been exactly what they wanted right? (They should have left it alone...)

AMEN !!!!!!!!
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
5,128 Posts
Offline

Nov 8, 2025, 1:56 am

Here are some possibilities about what's coming.

It takes 201 million tickets to reach a 50% chance of getting a winner. We obviously can't get a winner in any of the previous drawings, so from this point there's a 50% chance that the cash value will reach about $668 million. At the current interest rate that would be an advertised annuity of $1.44 billion.

On average it takes 292.47 million tickets to produce each winner, so once the cash value has reached $391.7 million (tonight's value) probability suggests that half of the runs would sell that many more tickets before theres a winner. That would raise the cash value to about $794 million, and (again based on the current rate) an annuity of $1.72 billion, and make this the 4th biggest US jackpot and the biggest MM jackpot (by about $102 million).

Selling 292.47 tickets only results in a 63.21% chance of a winner, so there's slightly better than a 1 in 3 chance this run will make it past that amount. Beating the PB record annuity of $2.04 billion requires about another $550 million or 399 million tickets. There's just over a 1 in 4 chance of selling that many tickets before producing a winner. Beating the real record of $997.6 million cash requires another $606 million, which takes about 440 million tickets. There's a 22% chance of doing that before getting a winner.

Want to see $3 billion and the insanity that brings? There's a 15% chance of selling another 550 million tickets without a winner. If that happens the cash values goes up to just about $1.15 billion, and an annuity of $2.49 billion. They'd need to sell 254 million tickets to advertise the next drawing at $3 billion. They were only charging $2 per ticket, but PB sold 253 million tickets advertising $1.8 billion on Saturday 9/6.

"Which would have been exactly what they wanted right? (They should have left it alone...) "

The powers that be at MM are probably salivating so badly right now that they're looking for higher ground. If there's a winner on Tuesday they've already collected more revenue than for the same number of drawings at $2. If it keeps rolling they'll keep collecting at least $75 million per drawing, and that will keep going up as the jackpot goes up. If it does get to $2 billion the 399 million tickets will give them almost $2 billion more revenue than they had as of tonight's drawing. That's 1/3 more than they collected for either of the 2024 jackpots that made it past $1 billion. Each of those generated about $1.5 billion with 31 drawings. Even if sales stay at $80 million per drawing they'll collect $1.5 billion in only 19 more drawings. I'd guess it would take 12 to 15 at most.
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,393 Posts
Online

Nov 8, 2025, 11:46 am

KYF, Thanks for the break down with needing generated sales and percentages. I haven't considered those particular aspects on the new $5 price tag.

My contention is that this run is already at the 40/41 rollover point because of the $50M starting point as opposed to $20M. They eliminated 2 draws and some change by doing so. They also have eliminated the frenzy point(IMHO) that has been a fairly consistent aspect of both the PB and MM games. While the last increase is $57M, I have a suspicion that the new $900M number was perhaps a bit extended just as the $800M was.

The $1.22 Billion MM jackpot run that ran from 9/13 - 12/27/24 started the frenzy point on Tue.12/10 going from $619M - $695M - $760M - $862M - to the $1 Billion mark, on the night before Christmas(obvious reason for more sales) to its final hurrah of $1.22 Billion on 12/27.

The closest MM to compare to this current run is the Mega Millions: $1.05 Billion jackpot, 9/18/20 - 1/22/2021 (36 rollovers, starting at $20 million)

Projected for the Friday before Christmas, during that run, it was on rollover 28, & only listed for $352M, which was up from the previous draw at $330M. It gained serious traction on Jan 5th,21 when it went from $447M projected to go to $490M but went up to $520M - $625M - 750M - $865M - $$1.05B

Is this latest $57M increase the start of massive increases? ??

Good luck to that are participating in the Tuesday draw and tonights PB draw
positano

United States
Member #186,034
November 30, 2017
42 Posts
Offline

Nov 8, 2025, 1:01 pm

I instead believe the $843M was underestimated, and they sold more than expected at draw #38.

Their forecast for draw #38 was $70.725M as indicated in

https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/mm20251104.pdf

.. and instead it ended up being $73.752M as indicated in

https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Documents/jackpotestimates/mm20251107.pdf

So they clearly underestimated sales for draw #38.

With their actual sales numbers, sales percentage growth v. THE SAME DAY of the prior week has been for draw #33 on:

33: +10.0% | 34: +14.5% | 35: +14.4% | 36: +15.3% | 37: +16.4% | 38: +18.9%

For draw #39 now they are estimating sales of $80.12M, which would be +16.2% v. draw #37.

I believe they are still underestimating it, and that they will end up selling AT LEAST $81.5M, but possibly above $85.

We might be at the beginning of the exponential growth, now that we are at $900.

For draw $40 they might sell around $100M, and then we are above the $1bln jackpot mark ....