Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Prev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?

No - None

[ 121 ]

[ 56.3% ]

Very Little - One Line

[ 46 ]

[ 21.4% ]

Some - I Cut Back

[ 13 ]

[ 6.1% ]

Yes - Business As Usual

[ 35 ]

[ 16.3% ]

Total valid votes

[ 215 ]

Discarded votes

[ 4 ]

SoCola

us
Member #228,792
January 16, 2023
106 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 1:42 am

Quote: Originally posted by Justing618 on Aug 31, 2025
No one won! 😳

And 116,866,517 tickets were sold.

My local gas station was packed with people buying powerball tickets. When I saw all the numbers drawn were low I thought someone would have it.
SoCola

us
Member #228,792
January 16, 2023
106 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 1:45 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Aug 30, 2025
"I'm not sure what numbers from the Texas spreadsheets you used in your previous post to determine the chance of a roll but what do you think are the chances we see another 2 billion jackpot? "

There's a worksheet for every drawing, and you'll find a link to it on the page that shows the current advertised jackpot. Somewhere around noon on the day of the drawing (or Friday for Saturday's PB jackpot) they add the next jackpot if it rolls.
https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Powerball/Estimated_Jackpot.html
https://www.texaslottery.com/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

There are a bunch of variables that affect the chance, so I'll make some assumptions. First, I'll figure tomorrow's jackpot ends up at exactly $1 billion and rolls. I'll also figure that the interest rate remains the same and every $100 million of advertised jackpot is $45.3 million cash. Then I'll figure the rolls (if they happen) are to 1.15 >1.35 > 1.65 and 2.00 billion. Skipping some math, that means selling about 101, 135, 203, and 237 million tickets. The chances of a rollover for those drawings would then be 0.708, 0.63, 0.499, and 0.457. Multiply the first 3 together and the chance of rolling and reaching $2 billion is 0.2226 or 22.3%. The chance of also rolling the 4th time is 10.2%. One of the biggest variables is what the actual jackpots are. If we get 3 rolls after Saturday and the 4th jackpot is to a bit more than 2 billion then the chance is 22.3% because it only needs to roll past 1.65 and the mystery is whether or not it's won at the first jackpot over 2 billion. If 3 rolls gets it to anything under 2 billion we'd need that 4th rollover to get past it.

"Even with 254,931 Lottery Post members we are yet to have a second prize jackpot winner. "

If there were actually that many members and they each played once per week they would collectively buy 13,256,412 tickets per year. Probability would then suggest 1 second place winner 48 weeks or so, except that a lot of those tickets would be from the smaller subset of possible combinations using only calendar numbers. Of course there aren't that many members now even if you count people who signed up and simply haven't come back. A substantial portion of those "members" have died and won't be buying tickets no matter how big the jackpot gets. That said, for as long as LP has been around there's very likely somebody who signed up at some point and has won a 2nd place prize unless most of them have stuck strictly to games besides PB or MM.

Thank you for the detailed break down. It makes a bit more sense now. And looking close to accurate so far. I'm sure the jackpot frenzy will adjust it a bit but it will be interesting to see how it plays out!
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,399 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 6:42 am

HMPH.... No winner after all that !! Time to pick the RIGHT numbers this time !!

Only had the 33 and 17 on 1 line

Good luck
JADELottery

Eagle Sun

IA, MN, WI
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
5,177 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 9:51 am

Our jackpot grows nicely.

The One Over None
I Know...
Ranett

United States
Member #201,949
November 3, 2019
6,480 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 10:43 am

Splurged and bought 3 tickets for tomorrow.
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
22,292 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 10:57 am

Quote: Originally posted by Ranett on Aug 31, 2025
Splurged and bought 3 tickets for tomorrow.

Big spender........good luck!

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,399 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 11:16 am

Now I have to recalculate my non profit donations once again... Keeps a person busy, that's for sure.

May even consider donating to those family members that one might consider to be a bit on the "obnoxious side"......May being the key word.
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
22,292 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 11:48 am

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Aug 31, 2025
Now I have to recalculate my non profit donations once again... Keeps a person busy, that's for sure.

May even consider donating to those family members that one might consider to be a bit on the "obnoxious side"......May being the key word.

After doing extensive investigation (in my dreams) on my family members, I think I found you as a distant (10th) cousin on my dad's (or is it my mom's?) side of the family.

That should be good for $1,000,000 for my "family" cut when (if) you win!

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
5,128 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 1:50 pm

"I'm sure the jackpot frenzy will adjust it a bit but it will be interesting to see how it plays out! "

I'm pretty sure that even the people at PB aren't all that sure exactly how things could go. Right now they're forecasting a $100 million increase, but since last night finished at 1.03 billion that means their first estimate for Monday is really 1.13. Those Friday worksheets are created about a day and a half before the drawing, but if they ever announced the next jackpot with different numbers than the worksheet I missed it.

Mondays generally have the lowest sales (and almost never bigger than the previous Saturday's sales until the jackpot if huge), and I don't know if or how the Labor Day weekend might affect them, though it doesn't seem to have slowed sales for Saturday. What's definite is that sales for last Wednesday were a hair over twice what they were for the previous Wednesday, and Saturday's sales were 2.7 times the previous Saturday's sales. If Monday's sales are twice the previous Monday, which I'm figuring is a likely minimum, they'll be almost $162 million or 81 million tickets. That's a 75% chance of a rollover and adds about $54 million cash to the jackpot. That would put the cash value at about 520.7 and the annuity at 1.149. I suspect that's low, and Monday's sales could possibly equal (or even beat) the 2.7 fold increase from Saturday to Saturday. That would mean a cash value of about 540 and an annuity of about 1.192. I'm not sure I'm optimistic enough to guess at that or an even $1.2 billion, but 1.175 is a round number I'm reasonably confident about. That would give us a 71.5% chance of a rollover which is still pretty close to my earlier guesses.
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,185
January 4, 2012
9,399 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 2:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on Aug 31, 2025
After doing extensive investigation (in my dreams) on my family members, I think I found you as a distant (10th) cousin on my dad's (or is it my mom's?) side of the family.

That should be good for $1,000,000 for my "family" cut when (if) you win!

That's mighty neighborly of you ...cousin

Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
grwurston

100

Same digits. Different games.

United States
Member #90,245
April 24, 2010
16,864 Posts
Online

Aug 31, 2025, 4:46 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Aug 31, 2025
HMPH.... No winner after all that !! Time to pick the RIGHT numbers this time !!

Only had the 33 and 17 on 1 line

Good luck

I saved 3 bucks.

When playing the lottery the thing that should matter the most is: Are you winning more than you spend? Good Luck!!!
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
22,292 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 4:54 pm

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Aug 31, 2025
That's mighty neighborly of you ...cousin

LOL.....I read somewhere that we are all related.

Actually, that is a little scary.....

JUST LOOK AT THE ODDS OF ANY JACKPOT GAME, THAT WILL TELL YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
12,518 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 5:33 pm

Yup, the theory says we are all cousins!

EEK!

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
JADELottery

Eagle Sun

IA, MN, WI
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
5,177 Posts
Offline

Aug 31, 2025, 10:43 pm

While waiting to win the PB & J, I won $600.00 playing Blackjack at Lake of the Torches Casino in Lac du Flambeau WI.

The Wife is on the Slots.

🤑

Good Luck Everyone

The One Over None
I Know...
IAmABadOne

Cambridge, Ohio
United States
Member #232,684
June 8, 2023
102 Posts
Online

Aug 31, 2025, 10:48 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Aug 31, 2025
While waiting to win the PB & J, I won $600.00 playing Blackjack at Lake of the Torches Casino in Lac du Flambeau WI.

The Wife is on the Slots.

🤑

Good Luck Everyone

Wow! Congratulations on the win!

Does that mean 200-300 more shots at 1.1B tomorrow?

I Am A Bad One, But I am not bad all of the time...

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Prev TopicNext Topic

Are you playing Mega Millions with the $5.00 per play?Prev Topic Next Topic