The ideal number of past draws for systemsPrev TopicNext Topic

• hypersoniq

  

  Pennsylvania
  United States
  Member #1,340
  April 6, 2003
  2,940 Posts
  Offline
  Oct 21, 2024, 10:42 am

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  In response to SunTribe

  Quote: Originally posted by SunTribe on Oct 17, 2024

  I think it's been over 20 years since Nick Koutras provided on another forum a mathematical formula for calculating the expected range of any lotto game. Personally, I did not notice any advantage of this expected range in my 5/50, 6/45 and 7/35 but maybe it can be of interest for some other format.

  Range=(V+1)*(1-2/(K+1))

  V - total numbers
  K - numbers drawn

  F.e.
  5/50
  Range=(50+1)*(1-2/(5+1))= 34.000 (34)

  6/45
  Range=(45+1)*(1-2/(6+1))=32.857 (33)

  7/35
  Range=(35+1)*(1-2/(7+1))=27.000 (27)

  BR

  I sort of remember this, the expected range was the spread of the pick, such that the high pick - the low pick should be in that range. I also don't remember finding any usefulness in that because the numbers don't hold to it.

  Back when I only worked with power ball results in a spreadsheet I would sometimes use the observed range for each column, which was to take a max and a min on each sorted order column and stick to picks within those ranges. That also did not work. Neither did gap analysis, sums or frequency by column.

  The only thing I can see is that using the whole history tells a different story than using the past x draws.

  Have an EXCELlent day!
• SunTribe

  

  Zagreb
  Croatia
  Member #5,123
  June 18, 2004
  53 Posts
  Offline
  Oct 21, 2024, 3:15 pm

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  You are spot on, the expected range would be the minimum number of drawings for all numbers to show up. In theory of course, they never do. And nothing else does.

  When I think about lottery in my country, they have trial drawing(s) before the official one, then every couple of moths as needed so called calibration drawings, every 3-4 years they change the machine, the same machine is used for both 6/45 and 7/35, so at the end of the day I am left analyzing the flawed statistics in any case.

  But I have to live by my signature.
  BR

  "The Greatest Failure Of All, Is The Failure To Try!"