No winner again: Powerball jackpot hits $1.6 billion in longest-ever rollover run

Dec 21, 2025, 7:47 am (62 comments)

Powerball

5th-largest lottery jackpot in world history set for Monday drawing

By Todd Northrop

Following the massive Powerball drawing worth $1.43 billion Saturday night, get ready to head back to your local lottery retailer, because things have gotten even more interesting.

That's because nobody won that Powerball lottery jackpot Saturday night, sending the Monday jackpot to heights only seen four times previously in world lottery history.

Monday's Powerball jackpot is currently estimated at $1.6 billion, with a lump-sum cash value of $735.3 million. And based on past multi-state lottery jackpots, that estimate may get bigger by the time the drawing kicks off Monday night.

To get to this size, the jackpot has been growing since it started on September 8 as a $20 million prize — now a record 45 consecutive drawings without a winner.

The previous record-holder for the number of drawings without a winner was set on Sept. 6, 2025, when two tickets sold in Missouri and Texas split a $1.7874 billion jackpot after 41 draws without a winner. Both tickets have been claimed: the Missouri winner is a self-described homebody and the Texas portion was claimed by a trust

Monday's $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot is the 4th-largest in the game's history, and the 5th-largest lottery jackpot in world history.

The lump-sum cash value of $735.3 million is the 9th-largest on the all-time lottery jackpot cash value rankings (see full list below).

Lottery players dreaming what all the cash will look like in their bank account after federal and state taxes are taken out can see an after-tax analysis of the current Powerball jackpot by visiting USA Mega's Powerball Jackpot Analysis page. Rather than simply showing the initial withholdings a lottery winner would face like other "copy cat" websites, the Jackpot Analysis page also includes the additional taxes that will be due after the initial withholdings, and will even allow players to see the taxes due under different filing statuses.

The rush of ticket sales over the next few days likely will propel the jackpot to an even higher amount before the drawing takes place Monday. Lottery Post and USA Mega will update the jackpot tallies displayed if such an increase occurs.

The largest lottery jackpot ever awarded was on Nov. 7, 2022, when one Powerball ticket sold in California won a $2 billion grand prize.  The incredibly lucky winner was Edwin Castro, who claimed the prize in February of 2023, providing minimal public information about himself.  What little is known about Castro comes from public filings, and includes the purchases of houses onetwo, and three, as well as being the subject of dubious lawsuits that are unfortunately predictable these days. (The lawsuit was thrown out last year.) One of those houses was destroyed in the 2025 Palisades fire, and Castro was later active in purchasing lots destroyed by the fire.

Players looking for the nearest official lottery retailer — or maybe just a different store without such a long line — are urged to use the free Lottery Places app available for iOS, Android, and Windows. The app can find lottery stores in every Powerball state and can search across state lines — something even official state lotteries can't do.

Some states offer direct online sales, allowing players to bypass the store and purchase tickets from home. Players can see if they can play Powerball online by tapping the link. Depending on the physical location of the person, the link will either provide access via a licensed butler service or the official state lottery itself.

Butler services provide scanned copies of the purchased lottery tickets securely held on behalf of the customer. In the past, such lottery ticket services were used by people out side the USA to win big jackpots in Oregon and Florida.

The quickest way to find the winning numbers after the drawing Monday will be by visiting USA Mega (www.usamega.com) at 10:59 pm Eastern Time (7:59 pm Pacific), when the winning numbers will be published within minutes of the drawing.

In Saturday night's Powerball drawing, there was no jackpot winner, but 8 lucky players matched the first 5 numbers for a $1,000,000 prize: 1 from California, 1 from Florida, 1 from Iowa, 1 from Massachusetts, 2 from Michigan, 1 from New Hampshire, and 1 from Ohio. 

The California second-prize winner will be awarded $2,323,527 instead of the fixed $1 million prize awarded in the other states. By law, California awards all lottery prizes on a pari-mutuel basis, meaning the prizes will change each drawing based on the number of tickets sold within California and the number of tickets that won at each prize level in the state.

None of the second-prize tickets were purchased with the Power Play option. If they had, their prize would have doubled to $2 million.

When a Powerball ticket is purchased with the Power Play option for an extra $1 per ticket, a second-prize win is doubled and any other non-jackpot prize is multplied by the Power Play number drawn that evening. A complete list of prizes available for matching various numbers can be found on the Powerball Drawing Detail page at USA Mega, as well as on the Powerball Prize Payouts and the Powerball Double Play Prize Payouts pages at Lottery Post.

The official drawing videos can also be found on the Powerball Drawing Detail page at USA Mega.

The Power Play option is not available in California, because the fixed nature of the prize increase offered with the Power Play is not compatible with California's pari-mutuel payouts.

Also, a total of 134 tickets matched four of the first five numbers plus the Powerball to win a $50,000 prize. Of those tickets, 22 were purchased with the Power Play option, increasing the prize to $150,000, and 24 were sold in California, where the prize awarded this drawing is $14,553.

The Powerball winning numbers for Saturday, December 20, 2025, were 4, 5, 28, 52, and 69, with Powerball number 20. The Power Play number was 3.

The Saturday Double Play drawing results were 5, 8, 19, 23, and 43, with Powerball number 6. Double Play is a game option currently available in 25 states, plus Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, that lets you play your numbers in a second drawing for an extra $1 per play, with a chance to win up to $10 million in cash. See How to Play Powerball at USA Mega for more information about Double Play.

Following the Saturday drawing, the Powerball annuity jackpot estimate was raised $165.4 million from its previous amount of $1.4346 billion. The cash value was raised by $76 million from its previous amount of $659.3 million.

Powerball is currently offered for sale in 45 states, plus Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Drawings are Mondays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays at 10:59 pm Eastern Time. Tickets cost $2 each.

Powerball lottery results are published within minutes of the drawing at USA Mega (www.usamega.com).  The USA Mega Web site provides lottery players in-depth information about the United States's two biggest multi-state lottery games, Mega Millions and Powerball.

Top 25 United States lottery jackpots of all time

Monday's Powerball jackpot currently stands as the 5th-largest lottery jackpot in world history.  That position may rise before the drawing, as lotteries are typically conservative in their initial estimates, and brisk sales may push the jackpot estimate higher by draw time.

  1. Powerball: $2.0401 billion, Nov. 7, 2022 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - California
  2. Powerball: $1.7874 billion, Sep. 6, 2025 (41 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Missouri, Texas
  3. Powerball: $1.7649 billion, Oct. 11, 2023 (35 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - California
  4. Mega Millions: $1.602 billion, Aug. 8, 2023 (31 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Florida
  5. Powerball: $1.6 billion, Dec. 22, 2025 (45 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
  6. Powerball: $1.5864 billion, Jan. 13, 2016 (19 rollovers, starting at $40 million) - California, Florida, Tennessee
  7. Mega Millions: $1.537 billion, Oct. 23, 2018 (25 rollovers, starting at $40 million) - South Carolina
  8. Mega Millions: $1.348 billion, Jan. 13, 2023 (25 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Maine
  9. Mega Millions: $1.337 billion, Jul. 29, 2022 (29 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Illinois
  10. Powerball: $1.3259 billion, Apr. 6, 2024 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Oregon
  11. Mega Millions: $1.269 billion, Dec. 27, 2024 (30 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - California
  12. Mega Millions: $1.128 billion, Mar. 26, 2024 (30 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - New Jersey
  13. Powerball: $1.0798 billion, Jul. 19, 2023 (38 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - California
  14. Mega Millions: $1.05 billion, Jan. 22, 2021 (36 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Michigan
  15. Mega Millions: $983 million, Nov. 14, 2025 (39 rollovers, starting at $50 million) - Georgia
  16. Powerball: $842.4 million, Jan. 1, 2024 (34 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Michigan
  17. Mega Millions: $800 million, Sep. 10, 2024 (27 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Texas
  18. Powerball: $768.4 million, Mar. 27, 2019 (25 rollovers, starting at $40 million) - Wisconsin
  19. Powerball: $758.7 million, Aug. 23, 2017 (20 rollovers, starting at $40 million) - Massachusetts
  20. Powerball: $754.6 million, Feb. 6, 2023 (33 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Washington
  21. Powerball: $731.1 million, Jan. 20, 2021 (35 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - Maryland
  22. Powerball: $699.8 million, Oct. 4, 2021 (40 rollovers, starting at $20 million) - California
  23. Powerball: $687.8 million, Oct. 27, 2018 (21 rollovers, starting at $40 million) - Iowa, New York
  24. Mega Millions: $656 million, Mar. 30, 2012 (18 rollovers, starting at $12 million) - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
  25. Mega Millions: $648 million, Dec. 17, 2013 (21 rollovers, starting at $12 million) - California, Georgia

For those keeping score, the number of jackpots in the top 25, by lottery game, are:

  • Powerball: 14
  • Mega Millions: 11

Top 25 cash value jackpots

Since many lottery winners collect their winnings in cash, the lump-sum payout is an important measure of what a winning ticket could be worth.

Looking at the cash value, the upcoming Powerball jackpot ranks as the 9th-largest cash value in world history.

  1. Powerball: $997.6 million cash, Nov. 7, 2022 ($2.0401 billion annuity) - California
  2. Powerball: $983.5 million cash, Jan. 13, 2016 ($1.5864 billion annuity) - California, Florida, Tennessee
  3. Mega Millions: $877.8 million cash, Oct. 23, 2018 ($1.537 billion annuity) - South Carolina
  4. Powerball: $820.6 million cash, Sep. 6, 2025 ($1.7874 billion annuity) - Missouri, Texas
  5. Mega Millions: $794.2 million cash, Aug. 8, 2023 ($1.602 billion annuity) - Florida
  6. Mega Millions: $780.5 million cash, Jul. 29, 2022 ($1.337 billion annuity) - Illinois
  7. Mega Millions: $776.6 million cash, Jan. 22, 2021 ($1.05 billion annuity) - Michigan
  8. Powerball: $774.1 million cash, Oct. 11, 2023 ($1.7649 billion annuity) - California
  9. Powerball: $735.3 million cash, Dec. 22, 2025 ($1.6 billion annuity) - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
  10. Mega Millions: $723.5 million cash, Jan. 13, 2023 ($1.348 billion annuity) - Maine
  11. Powerball: $621 million cash, Apr. 6, 2024 ($1.3259 billion annuity) - Oregon
  12. Mega Millions: $571.9 million cash, Dec. 27, 2024 ($1.269 billion annuity) - California
  13. Powerball: $558.1 million cash, Jul. 19, 2023 ($1.0798 billion annuity) - California
  14. Powerball: $546.8 million cash, Jan. 20, 2021 ($731.1 million annuity) - Maryland
  15. Mega Millions: $536.6 million cash, Mar. 26, 2024 ($1.128 billion annuity) - New Jersey
  16. Powerball: $496 million cash, Oct. 4, 2021 ($699.8 million annuity) - California
  17. Powerball: $480.5 million cash, Aug. 23, 2017 ($758.7 million annuity) - Massachusetts
  18. Powerball: $477 million cash, Mar. 27, 2019 ($768.4 million annuity) - Wisconsin
  19. Mega Millions: $471 million cash, Mar. 30, 2012 ($656 million annuity) - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
  20. Mega Millions: $453.6 million cash, Nov. 14, 2025 ($983 million annuity) - Georgia
  21. Powerball: $450.2 million cash, Jan. 5, 2022 ($632.6 million annuity) - California, Wisconsin
  22. Powerball: $425.2 million cash, Jan. 1, 2024 ($842.4 million annuity) - Michigan
  23. Powerball: $407.2 million cash, Feb. 6, 2023 ($754.6 million annuity) - Washington
  24. Mega Millions: $404.2 million cash, Sep. 10, 2024 ($800 million annuity) - Texas
  25. Powerball: $396.2 million cash, Oct. 27, 2018 ($687.8 million annuity) - Iowa, New York

The number of cash value jackpots in the top 25, by lottery game, are:

  • Powerball: 15
  • Mega Millions: 10

Lottery Post Staff

Comments

Bleudog101

$4 on Lucky for Life from an email....nothing on the big dog!

 

If no winner Mon or Wed will buy $2 tickets for the Christmas Eve dinner.   Still have KY lottery stocking stuffer envelopes from years ago.   Too bad they went away.

wander73's avatarwander73

it will be hit before new years

GiveFive's avatarGiveFive

Knocked out a $12 winner with one number and The PowerBall.

Playin' for FREE tomorrow night! Can't beat it with a stick!  G5

CDanaT's avatarCDanaT

Nothing on 6 tickets....C'MON Monday

Good luck to all that are participating.

andl's avatarandl

Estimate was way off.

delS

I'll take any Jackpot amount at this point. However, I'd like to see a new World Lottery Jackpot RECORD BREAKER!!!!🥳🥳🥳

GiveFive's avatarGiveFive

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Dec 21, 2025

Knocked out a $12 winner with one number and The PowerBall.

Playin' for FREE tomorrow night! Can't beat it with a stick!  G5

BTW - I had #20 on one line of my five line ticket as my PowerBall number.  #20 is the hottest PowerBall number of 2025 with 12 hits. Didya play it? Also had #28 on that line with #20 but they don't give ya any more $$ than if ya had just The PowerBall number.  G5

hearsetrax's avatarhearsetrax

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Dec 21, 2025

Nothing on 6 tickets....C'MON Monday

Good luck to all that are participating.

LOL

all I got for my $6 was one lousy number not worth a plugged penny 

Well here we go again and hopefully we'll set a new record LOL 

JackpotWanna's avatarJackpotWanna

I pray I win this one.  :)

sully16's avatarsully16

I'm exhausted  good luck all.

ShagE3

After last night's contribution to the 'pot I'm going from oliveloaf and liverwurst sandwiches to peanuts and now I'm surviving on Scooby snacks . I hope for a win on Monday or it's birdfeed time.

 

Have a shaggy day!

ShagE3

Cupcake2016

This run is CRAZY!!! I'm probably in the minority but Powerball was more fun when it was hit frequently. A million would change my life yet alone 700 million. Good luck to everyone.

Droptop209's avatarDroptop209

Goodbye 1995 Honda Accord.  Hello 2026 Bentley

lottobrain's avatarlottobrain

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Dec 21, 2025

BTW - I had #20 on one line of my five line ticket as my PowerBall number.  #20 is the hottest PowerBall number of 2025 with 12 hits. Didya play it? Also had #28 on that line with #20 but they don't give ya any more $$ than if ya had just The PowerBall number.  G5

Played $75 including Power play on the 25 tickets with #20 PB 5 times. So lost $15 on the transaction.

JustMaybe

In my mind, I thought if it rolls it's going to roll from 1.5B to 1.75B.

Oh well, that was just my mind.

I am a firm believer in QPs but may try birthday numbers for the draw tomorrow and one or two QPs on the side 🙏

Good luck to all 🤞

JohnGalt3

The actual jackpot was $1,430,000,000 and that is why it is only $1.6 billion on Monday.

ShagE3

Quote: Originally posted by JohnGalt3 on Dec 21, 2025

The actual jackpot was $1,430,000,000 and that is why it is only $1.6 billion on Monday.

Could be an indicator of lotto fatigue.

Speaking of fatigue......

Im thinking of decreasing my lotto spending rather than increasing it for Monday.  Anyone of the same mind on this board?  I'm coming up with 1 ticket per 100 mil cash option = 7 lucky tickets w/ power play.  On the other hand, I'm really playing for the jackpot ....I could go for 10 tickets w/out powerplay and save myself a dollar.  Decisions decisions !

Have a shaggy day!

ShagE

Todd's avatarTodd

Quote: Originally posted by ShagE3 on Dec 21, 2025

Could be an indicator of lotto fatigue.

Speaking of fatigue......

Im thinking of decreasing my lotto spending rather than increasing it for Monday.  Anyone of the same mind on this board?  I'm coming up with 1 ticket per 100 mil cash option = 7 lucky tickets w/ power play.  On the other hand, I'm really playing for the jackpot ....I could go for 10 tickets w/out powerplay and save myself a dollar.  Decisions decisions !

Have a shaggy day!

ShagE

I think having personal wagering rules is a great way to approach gambling in general.  Just as good with lottery games as it is when going to a casino.  It keeps you from making bad impulse judgments on the spot.

Of course, everyone's rules should be personalized so it balances your fun with your own spending limits.

johnnyBlaze

Can anyone actually explain why there's been so many rollovers and yet only sitting at $1.6B while the $2B one got there 5 drawings sooner?

Even the cash prize was much higher.

 Anyone??

Think's avatarThink

According to the top 25 list it appears that 39 is the record number of rolls for Mega Millions

 

So 3/2 * 39 = 58 or 59 rolls for Powerball.  Timewise it would be the same so Powerball is still won quicker until it reaches 59 rolls.

delS

With a Jackpot this large, I don't get the whole narrative about "Lottery Fatigue."  I understand not everyone can't afford to spend on every roll. 

And I mind my own business, and Im not concern what another man has in their pockets. But no one in this forum can find any other way to get the opportunity to possess $1.6B. IJS

Think's avatarThink

Quote: Originally posted by johnnyBlaze on Dec 21, 2025

Can anyone actually explain why there's been so many rollovers and yet only sitting at $1.6B while the $2B one got there 5 drawings sooner?

Even the cash prize was much higher.

 Anyone??

Haven't you been paying attention?

Interest rates, ticket sales.

Not complicated.

noise-gate

* Exhausted but not giving up yet...

Think's avatarThink

Quote: Originally posted by delS on Dec 21, 2025

With a Jackpot this large, I don't get the whole narrative about "Lottery Fatigue."  I understand not everyone can't afford to spend on every roll. 

And I mind my own business, and Im not concern what another man has in their pockets. But no one in this forum can find any other way to get the opportunity to possess $1.6B. IJS

Been there, played that and didn't win anything and another opportunity to play for a billion will eventually come down the line.

Past experience getting excited and continuel losing leads players to wait and not get carried away

Come back after you have played and lost a bazillion times and I bet you will wait and spend less too.

It's not really a big mystery.

Wildbill78's avatarWildbill78

I just want to give a shout out to the Powerball, keep things going the way it is and you'll be fine! Regardless of record rollovers currently at 45, it's something about the sweet spot price $2 for a ticket that sit well with me and hundreds of Americans, I'm sure. If you do anything similar to Greedy Mega Millions you will be doomed. I hope everyone like me and never play $5 a ticket at that price while game rolling every $10 million. It's disgusting! I will say I was a little frustrated when PB change the structure to 3 times a week and raised the ticket price to $2 but it comes out to be a great move because you have more record jackpot then mega millions. Hopefully they are seeing what works and get their act together. Actually is that why they hired that new guy to over see the game. Ummmmm 🤔 more to come from them in future I guess

Wildbill78's avatarWildbill78

Pretty cool. Was that manual pick or auto pick to allow the lucky number 20 be picked. For years I played $180 a drawing with group of 80 players and the most we ever won was $24 back on a drawing from that night. I run the group and we just do auto pick but hey we all are still at it 20 years later and some retired but they'll never give up because we feel $3-5 Million is life changing for each of us. We only play when it gets high and don't play every draw. ☘️

Barramundi's avatarBarramundi

Aussie here. The guy in California who won the largest-ever jackpot, has he managed to escape publicity a few years down the track? I know there was a person who tried to claim they were the owner of his ticket or some such nonsense, but hopefully the winner has got a relatively normal life now. Being forced to reveal your identity would suck, you'd have to get off social media for ever I imagine, lest you be overwhelmed with tales of woe and how just $1M of your prize would fix their problem.

On the positive side, this chap could be a good template for one of us when we win! 😀

EnReval

They need to drop it to $3

fashohits's avatarfashohits

Exactly they holding it

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss

Quote: Originally posted by EnReval on Dec 21, 2025

They need to drop it to $3

Who needs to drop what to $3? Maybe you're confusing Mega Millions, which is $5, with Powerball. This thread is about the Powerball jackpot.

EnReval

Mega need to drop their $5 to $3

haven't seen any big winners, was expecting it to get to 2.5-3 billion soon

 

I understand it's abt PB and I've seen other make comments abt MM at times

 

sorry didn't mean to get u upset geesh

 

it's all fun

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss

Not upset at all, was just curious.

mightwin1's avatarmightwin1

How did the estimate come up so short?...either way I spent $86 and won $4...lmao 🤣 , on to tomorrow 🤑

ShagE3

Quote: Originally posted by mightwin1 on Dec 21, 2025

How did the estimate come up so short?...either way I spent $86 and won $4...lmao 🤣 , on to tomorrow 🤑

Back twenty or thirty years ago we'd cross the border to buy pb tickets when it was around  100 mil for $1. I'm not gonna blurt out the number but it was north of yours.  Let's just say we made an afternoon/evening of the exercise.

Another time long ago the ny lotto reached 90 mil ...... we made a days journey out of that escapade.   it was memorable because we got there too late to purchase tickets.  We did however enjoy a nice dinner at a fancy Japanese restaurant.

Now that the majority of states offer pb and mm. ....it makes it more convenient,yes but, the lotto experience isn't as enjoyable as it used to be in the good old days. 

Oh well maybe Monday night will be a night to remember in my household.  Who knows ?  Only the shadow knows! 

Have a shaggy day 

ShagE3

delS

I've been playing lotteries for 25+ years, and the most I've ever won was a $1000. I'll continue to play the large Jackpot draw games regularly every draw once its above $300,000,000. But if people are fatigued at opportunities so be it.  As long as I'm breathing I'll wager what I normally do, nothing more and nothing less. I dreamed BIG before I started playing lotteries and I'll dream big forever.  I'm not tired of dreaming!!!!

ShagE3

Quote: Originally posted by delS on Dec 21, 2025

I've been playing lotteries for 25+ years, and the most I've ever won was a $1000. I'll continue to play the large Jackpot draw games regularly every draw once its above $300,000,000. But if people are fatigued at opportunities so be it.  As long as I'm breathing I'll wager what I normally do, nothing more and nothing less. I dreamed BIG before I started playing lotteries and I'll dream big forever.  I'm not tired of dreaming!!!!

You've got a good strategy for buying tickets ...   and moreso  a positive attitude.

Congratulations. ......,

I just think or have a feeling that the fever or mania isnt growing like it has in the past and the 45 rolls kinda backs my point .

Have a shaggy day

ShagE3

EnReval

Well said, sometimes I feel guilty abt analyzing my sets and talking abt it with friends who don't gamble but it keeps me busy and most of all, nothing wrong with dreaming 

 

hv no plans but buy a modest home

rest take care of an aging parent, and learn more abt finances

delS

Thanks

pstfleur

I won $12 on Fantasy 5, so I'll use some of that on playing Powerball tonight. I don't care to win the jackpot, let me get the $1 million dollar prize or even the $50,000 prize.

Bleudog101

Quote: Originally posted by EnReval on Dec 21, 2025

Well said, sometimes I feel guilty abt analyzing my sets and talking abt it with friends who don't gamble but it keeps me busy and most of all, nothing wrong with dreaming 

 

hv no plans but buy a modest home

rest take care of an aging parent, and learn more abt finances

Talk about modest homes, look up Warren Buffet's home in Omaha.   The audacity of a multi-millionaire living like that for decades (sarcasm).

 

As for non-playing friends or those who may chastise one for playing the lottery they get their just desserts.   Nothing.

EnReval

Lol

Perfecttiming2's avatarPerfecttiming2

Quote: Originally posted by Barramundi on Dec 21, 2025

Aussie here. The guy in California who won the largest-ever jackpot, has he managed to escape publicity a few years down the track? I know there was a person who tried to claim they were the owner of his ticket or some such nonsense, but hopefully the winner has got a relatively normal life now. Being forced to reveal your identity would suck, you'd have to get off social media for ever I imagine, lest you be overwhelmed with tales of woe and how just $1M of your prize would fix their problem.

On the positive side, this chap could be a good template for one of us when we win! 😀

Yes, the guy who won the largest jackpot makes the news here whenever he does something as his spending is tracked by the media.

KY Floyd's avatarKY Floyd

"Estimate was way off. "

They missed by even more in than MM missed back in October 2018 when they advertised a $1.6 billion jackpot and only managed 1.537. Depending on the metric you choose PB missed by almost 2 1/2 times as much as MM did. MM advertised an annuity increase of $600 million and missed by 10.5%. Powerball advertised a nominal annuity increase of $250 million and missed by 26%.

"Could be an indicator of lotto fatigue. "

Jackpot growth has definitely slowed down in general, but the current PB run is way behind the last one. The last one hit 1 billion on drawing #39 and this one took until drawing #42. The last one got from (actual) 1.033 to 1.787 3 drawings later. This run went from 1.06 to 1.43 in 3 drawings. There could be economic factors at play (maybe most people cut unnecessary spending  when they hear that their health insurance premiums will be going up by thousands of dollars, but that's hardly the only problem with affordability), but maybe the lottery is just that much closer to being thoroughly broken.

"Can anyone actually explain why there's been so many rollovers "

You aren't buying enough tickets. neither is everyone else.

"Even the cash prize was much higher. "

You mean the cash value for an annuity of 1.8 billion was bigger than  for the current 1.6 billion annuity? The cash value of the current run is actually a slightly higher percentage of the annuity value than the previous run. 

As for what happens next, the sales estimate for tonight has been revised downward (a recurring theme of late), and expected coverage is 26.9% of combinations. If it rolls they're currently estimating a whopping increase to just $1.7 billion. If it rolls again on Wednesday (a 51.7% chance based on  their current estimates) the coverage estimate corresponds to  an increase to about 2.11 billion  for Saturday. The cash value would be about $969 million, so still almost $30 million shy of Castro's prize.

They're now showing coverage estimates out to Saturday 1/3, but who knows how accurate they really are. Just for fun, though, based on those estimates there's a 19.7% chance of about 2.44 billion next Monday and a 9% chance of 2.8+ billion for next Wednesday. The chance of another shot in the new year is under 4%, but the estimated sales for Saturday 1/3 are for over 770 million tickets. That would beat the sales record set for the first billion+ jackpot back in 2016. It would add over 1/2 billion to the cash value and give us an annuity jackpot just a bit shy of $4 billion. And it would make the folks at MM really pissed that probability did it for PB instead of them.

Coin Toss's avatarCoin Toss

EnReval  This thread is about the current Powerball jackpot, out of nowhere you say they need to drop it to $3. We are not mind readers so please don't tell me geeesh because you have reading comprehension problem.

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